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Trident after the election

Trident after the election. John Ainslie Coordinator Scottish CND Presentation for Scottish CND Post-Election Conference STUC 15 May 2010. Trident after the election. Trident Replacement 2010-15 Trident and the deficit US Trident Replacement programme New political situation.

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Trident after the election

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  1. Trident after the election John AinslieCoordinator Scottish CND Presentation for Scottish CND Post-Election ConferenceSTUC 15 May 2010

  2. Trident after the election • Trident Replacement 2010-15 • Trident and the deficit • US Trident Replacement programme • New political situation

  3. MoD Timeline in 2006

  4. Defence Board 26 Nov 2009

  5. Defence Board 26 Nov 2009

  6. Defence Board 26 Nov 2009 “The Board also took stock of progress on the successor submarine programme, and the challengesthat remained before it could be initially considered by the Investment Approvals Board next July.”

  7. MoD Timeline in 2010

  8. MoD Timeline in 2010

  9. 2010-15 workload • 2010 – start initial design • 2012 – start detailed design • Design workload peaks in 2013/14: Full Time Equivalent design workload for successorsubmarine(RAND)

  10. 2010-15 workload • reactor design • fuel core development • 2012 – long lead item production

  11. 2010-15 workload Common Missile Compartment (Joint US/UK programme; work all in US)

  12. 2010-15 workload • Aldermaston modernisation • Future warhead decision (due 2010-15) US W76-1 warhead modernisation

  13. Main Gate decision

  14. Trident and the deficit Annual spending on nuclear weapons has doubled from £1 billion in 2003 to £2 billion in 2010

  15. Trident and the deficit Increasing workload in the design phase Annual costs could rise to £3 billion by 2014

  16. Trident and the deficit £1 billion per year will be spent in 2010-13 modernising Aldermaston

  17. Trident and the deficit The financial plan is to reduce the national debtby 2031 – within this timescale over £60 billion willbe spent on the nuclear weapons programme.

  18. Trident replacement in the US • US Navy plan • 12 new submarines • In service 2027 – 2080 • Build cost $80 billion

  19. Trident replacement in the US “When that program really begins to ramp up, in the latter part of this decade, it will suck all the air out of the Navy’s shipbuilding program” Statement to Congress March 2010. Robert GatesDefence Secretary

  20. Trident replacement in the US “the new ballistic submarine alone would begin to eat up the lion’s share of the Navy’s shipbuilding resources … we have to ask whether the nation can really afford .. $7 billion submarines” Speech to Navy League 3 May 2010. Robert GatesDefence Secretary

  21. Trident replacement in the US “We have a looming need to replace the Ohio Class strategic missile submarine, but doing so may cripple the Navy shipbuilding budget.” Seapower Committee 20 January 2010 Gene Taylor Chair, Seapower Committee, House of Representatives.

  22. Trident replacement in the US $672 million SSBN(X) budget halved “.. until the Secretary of Defense reports to the committee the guidance which shaped the results of the analysis of alternatives ... and the rationale associated with construction of a new class of submarines capable of carrying the current weapon vice development of a smaller missile to fit an existing submarine” Seapower Committee Budget Mark-up 13 May 2010 Gene Taylor Chair, Seapower Committee, House of Representatives.

  23. Trident replacement in the US • Submarine unit cost doubled from $3.4 to $7 bn • The US submarine programme is not ring-fenced • The US Navy may review its options • Fewer US submarines – UK unit cost will increase • A delay in the US programme will affect the UK

  24. New Political Situation – TV debates “I don't think we can either justify or afford the like-for-like replacement of the Cold War nuclear missile system, the Trident missile system, over the next 25 years. It will cost you, all of us, £100 billion. We can't afford it.” “You want to hold a review, and you want to exclude the one big issue which should be at the heart of that review.” Nick Clegg, TV debates15 & 22 April 2010

  25. New Political Situation - Coalition The Government will be committed to the maintenance of Britain’s nuclear deterrent and have agreed that the renewal of Trident should be scrutinised to ensure value for money. Liberal Democrats will continue to make the case for alternatives Coalition Agreement 12 May 2010

  26. New Political Situation - Coalition “The Labour and Conservative policy of like-for-like replacement of Trident is absurd “ ”Any review which fails to ask the big questions will be a waste of time. In particular, the Government must think again about replacing Trident.” Nick Harvey MP (now Armed Forces Minister)

  27. New Political Situation - Ideas • Include Trident in the Defence Review • Delay the Initial Gate to allow a study of “value for money” and alternatives • Publish the costs • Lobby Lib Dems • Continue to build a broad coalition

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