U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey: Implications for Rural Alaska

1. U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey: Implications for Rural Alaska Nicole Grewe, Ph.D. Division of Community & Regional Affairs Alaska Municipal League Annual Conference November 10 – 14, 2008 Angoon Kotzebue

2. Reengineering the Decennial Census: • Decennial Census Short Form - Continued • Counts population • Decennial Census Long Form - Discontinued • Describes population • American Community Survey (ACS) - Implemented • Describes population

3. Select ACS Characteristics Demographics: • Sex • Age • Race • Relationship • Household type Angoon

4. Select ACS Characteristics Social: • School enrollment • Education • Marital Status • Veteran status • Place of birth • Citizenship • Language • Ancestry Gambell

5. Select ACS Characteristics Economic: • Employment • Commute • Occupation • Industry • Class of worker • Income • Benefits • Poverty status Elfin Cove

6. Select ACS Characteristics Housing: • Occupancy • Units in structure • Number of rooms • Housing tenure • Vehicles • House heating fuel • Value • Mortgage • Rent Hoonah

7. ACS Sample The Sample: • ACS survey data is collected from every census area and borough in Alaska from independent monthly samples of randomly selected addresses. A Statistics Moment - Sampling Good Survey Data: • Sound sampling • Quality addresses for full sample distribution • High response rate

8. 2000 Census vs. ACS Sample 2000 Census Sample: • 17% US households sampled • 50% rural AK households sampled ACS Sample: • 19% - 50% rural AK households sampled • Smaller sample size requires rolling averages 2000 Census vs. ACS Sample: • Moving or “rolling averages” • Different reporting periods • Different size samples • Smaller sample size increases sampling error

9. ACS Challenges Response Rate: • Goal: mirror 2000 Census • Places > 65,000 population = 1 year tabulations • Places < 65,000 population = 3 or 5 year tabulations • Statewide data requires good response rates from both rural and urban places. Survey Instrument: • Mail-out/mail-back survey • Street address challenges • 2005 = “unmailable” + “undeliverable” surveys • Representation

10. Rural Alaska Sample • Rural Alaska Challenges: • Reduced sample size • Significant quantity “unmailable” • Significant quantity “undeliverable”

11. ACS Rural Data Consequences • Rural characteristics underrepresented. • Survey removals = smaller sample size and reduced confidence. • Marginal sample size may be so severely impacted the data is not released. Kasaan

12. Remote Alaska Exception

13. Comparability: ACS and 2000 Census • Target Population: • ACS = household • 2000 Census = population • Time Period • ACS = continuous rolling nature • 2000 Census = point in time estimate • Reference Time Periods: • ACS = 12 months prior, shifting months • 2000 Census = April 1, current decennial year

15. ACS and Rural Alaska 5-Year Rolling Average: designed for ≤ 20,000 population. 27 Alaska Census Areas/Boroughs: • 81% < 20,000 • 67% < 10,000 • 30% < 5,000 148 Alaska Cities: • 98% < 20,000 • 83% < 1,000 • 26% < 200 Unincorporated Alaska Places: • 97% < 1,000 Ninilchik

16. Research Consequences • More frequent data, but perhaps unreliable data. • Characteristic Comparability Challenges - describing the population differently. • Longitudinal Challenges – 2000 Census and ACS data often not comparable. • Potentially higher margins of errors. • Limited Test Data - 2010 ACS is test for rural AK.

17. Community Development and Consequences • Potentially unreliable community demographics. • Challenges in tracking demographic community change over time. • Consequences for planning process. • Consequences for programmatic funding. • Be an informed user - critically evaluate.

18. Questions or Comments? Nicole Grewe, Ph.D. Direct: (907) 465-8249 nicole.grewe@alaska.gov Craig