Looking Forward to the 2010 Census

1. Looking Forward to the 2010 Census The changing demographics of the nation C Barbara Everitt Bryant 2009

2. Barbara Everitt Bryant Research Scientist-Emerita Ross School of Business University of Michigan Director, Bureau of the Census 1989 - 1993

3. The reason we take a census:It’s in the Constitution!

4. Article 1; Section 2 “Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included in this Union, according to their respective numbers…The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.”

5. It was put in the Constitution to: • Divide up taxes among the states (this was discontinued after War of 1812) • Reapportion House of Representatives between the states

6. Other Uses of Census Data • Redistricting—drawing boundaries for Congressional, legislative, etc. districts • Distribution of federal funds--$400b/year • Program needs planning for federal/state/local government and government agencies • Marketing • Site location • Demographic change research

8. We have the longest running periodic census only because census taking is protected by being in the Constitution • Census data is always controversial. Legislative bodies—and all constituencies-- fight for their maximum count, and would not take a census if they thought it would reduce their power.

9. Census creates “winners” and “losers”: • 1860 Slave vs Free States • 1870 Effect of 14th Amendment –former slaves now full persons • 1911 Size of Congress fixed at 435 • 1920 Rural vs Urban • 1962 Baker v Carr (one person/one vote) • 1965 Voting Rights Act • 1968 Housing Act • Federal aid becomes 15% of state and local funds • 1980, 1987, 1990 Lawsuits against Census Bureau over undercount—controversy on statistical adjustment of census counts

10. 1790 to 2000Data Every 10 Years • Since 1970: 2 questionnaires • Short form to 100% of households • Count of population • Information for reapportionment and redistricting • Long form to 17% of households • Social and economic characteristics

11. Starting in 2005The American Community Survey replaced the long form • 250,000 household interviews per month • New data on characteristics of the population every year • 2010 Census will be short form only-- for accurate count for reapportionment and redistricting

12. In 219 years we have grown from a nation of 3.9 to 308 million

13. Population Growth 1790 - 2009

14. Population Today • The world: 6.8 billion • The U.S.: 308 million • California: 38 million • Michigan: 10 million

15. The Center of U.S. Population:A History • 1790: East of Baltimore • 2000: South/central Missouri • 2010: ?? Probably near the Missouri-Arkansas border—moving South and West

19. Growth is in the West and South

20. 100 Years of Population Shifts

22. Which means the Northeast and Midwest are losing political power

23. Reapportionment after 1990 & 2000 censuses

24. Michigan is expected to lose a Congressional seat after the 2010 census

25. When First Counted in the U.S. Census: • 1790 13 colonies plus some Western edges like Kentucky • 1810 Northwest Territory—Illinois, Michigan, etc. • 1870 Arizona Territory with 5,000 persons

26. 1. New York 2. Los Angeles 3. Chicago 4. Houston 5. Philadelphia* 6. Phoenix 7. San Diego 8. Dallas 9. San Antonio 10. Detroit* * Lost population in decade The 10 largest citiesin 2000

27. NY-NJ-LI-CT-PA (21.2) LA-Riverside-Orange CA (16.4) Chicago-Gary-Kenosha IL-IN-WI(9.2) Washington-Baltimore DC-MD-VA-WV (7.6) San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose CA (7.0) Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City PA-NJ-DE-MD (6.2) Boston-Worcester-Lawrence MA-NH-ME-CT (5.8) Detroit-AA-Flint MI (5.5) Dallas-Ft Worth TX (5.2) Nine Metropolitan Areas of 5 Million or More (2000)

28. An increasingly diverse population

29. By 2042, white non-Hispanics will be a minority They already are in California, Texas, New Mexico, and Hawaii

31. Racial Ethnic % in 3 Western States (2008)

34. Asians Live Mostly in Urban Areas

35. Ann Arbor is the most integrated city in Michigan (*William Frey, University of Michigan)

36. Ours is a very mobile society 16% of us changed residences last year—but downturn in housing is making it harder to move

37. Residence last year (2008)

38. Our population is aging

39. Median Age of the Population

42. Immigrants keep the nation younger. Median age (2000): • 38.5 Whites • 35.3 TOTAL POPULATION • 32.3 Asians • 30.5 African Americans • 28.5 American Indians • 26.6 Hispanics

43. In a university town, the population never grows old • MEDIAN AGE (2008): • 36.9 United States • 38.7 Massachusetts • 30.8 Cambridge, MA • 38.0 Michigan • 27.1 Ann Arbor, MI • 35.1 Arizona • 29.9 Tempe

44. Foreign-Born Population History • 1860- 1920 13-15% • 1930 11.6% • 1970 4.7% • 2000 11.1% • Early immigration mostly from Europe; 2000 half from Latin America, one-fourth from Asia

45. Language other than English spoken at home • 1990 14% • 2008 20%

46. Undocumented immigrants now estimated at 11-12 millionSource: Pew Hispanic CenterThe Census Bureau does not measure legal/illegal

47. Housing Tenure 2008 • (Occupied Housing Units) • 67% owner-occupied • 33% renter-occupied

48. Households have changed

49. Household Structure

50. Families With Children