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The impact of demographic change on Rotorua’s popualtion

The impact of demographic change on Rotorua’s popualtion. Natalie Jackson. Professor of Demography, Director, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA). Presentation to Rotorua Chamber of Commerce, Rotorua , 20 th July 2013. Outline. Seeing the issue ‘whole’

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The impact of demographic change on Rotorua’s popualtion

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  1. The impact of demographic change on Rotorua’s popualtion Natalie Jackson Professor of Demography, Director, National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) Presentation to Rotorua Chamber of Commerce, Rotorua, 20th July 2013

  2. Outline • Seeing the issue ‘whole’ • The BIG Picture • Local trends and patterns • Some local implications and opportunities

  3. 7 Billion and Counting. Yes but..

  4. Ageing-driven growth is not the same as youth-driven growth US Census Bureau International Database: More Developed Countries by age and sex

  5. Ageing-driven growth is ultimately finite 2/3 of New Zealand’s growth 2011-2031 expected to be at 65+ years Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

  6. Over the next 20 years 84% (56) TA’s will have more than 100 per cent of ‘growth’ at 65+ years; all are projected to experience overall decline at 0-64 years • 1996-2011 32 TAs (48%)

  7. BOP -2,600 NZ will have 28,000 fewer school leavers over the next ten years – and then.. Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2011(base)-2061

  8. Some local implications and opportunities

  9. Rotorua District – unlikely to grow significantly Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012 Update) - MEDIUM

  10. Rotorua - younger than total NZ but ageing faster Rotorua: All growth 2011-2031 at 65+ years Source: Statistics NZ 2012 Projected subnational population of New Zealand by age and sex, 2009(base)-2031 - Update

  11. It is critical to prepare for these changes Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012 Update) - MEDIUM

  12. BOP Māori* c.25% BOP population all ages c.35% all BOP children 0-14 There is much potential for young Māori Baby Boomers TGYH A ‘Collateral Demographic Dividend’ on offer BOP 2006

  13. Rotorua Maori even younger Rotorua District by major ethnic group and age* 2011 2021 Asian Pacific Island 13.8% 15.8% Māori 83% Stats NZ *multiple count - Subnational Ethnic Population Projections (2006 Base - 2009 Update)

  14. Rotorua’s youthful Maori population slows but can’t prevent population ageing 65+ years: 13.0% cf 13.8% 65+ years: 9.7>>13.0%

  15. 2001-2006 – youthful net migration loss = the problem Net Migration Loss Net Migration Gain

  16. But Rotorua faring much better than some of its neighbours 65+ years: 13.4>>17.9% 65+ years: 10.2>>14.2%

  17. Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012 Update) Already crossed over in 16% TAs Rotorua will still have more children than elderly for about 20 years You are here Projected Crossover c.2028 (Total NZ 2026)

  18. More elderly than children(% NZ Territorial Authority Areas; BOP) Observed / ERP Projected Rotorua Whakatane Kawerau Opotiki West. BOP Tauranga Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections: 2006(base)–2031 (October 2012 update) Table 4.1

  19. Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012 Update) Already crossed over in 36% TAs Rotorua - fewer at labour market entry than exit age in c.7 years You are here Projected Rotorua District

  20. Percentage TAs with fewer at labour market entry than exit age Observed Projected Rotorua Kawerau Whakatane Tauranga Opotiki Western BOP Statistics New Zealand Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (2012 Update)

  21. Some good news for local youth!!! There will be increasing competition generally The Economist, April 9th 2011

  22. BOP Horticulture and Fruit Growing #2 Who will work on/buy the region’s farms? 4 55+ years 39.0% 55+ years 26.4%

  23. BOP School Education (Primary/Secondary) #1 Who will teach our children? (and let us retire?) 4 55+ years 21.0% 55+ years 13.2%

  24. BOP Hospitals and Nursing Homes #6 Who will mend us when we get sick? (and old?) 6 55+ years 22.2% 55+ years 11.6%

  25. Does it all matter? 36% of New Zealand’s TA’s already in decline It matters a lot to those who have to plan for services.. Ensure there will be a supply of people to do the work It matters to people wanting to sell their houses.. Ultimately it matters to the whole country

  26. NZ TAs experiencing decline 1996-2011 (33 % NZ TAs) Stats New Zealand Estimated Resident Population RC, TA

  27. What does it mean for you / your community? • Bay of Plenty population is/will remain relatively old • Māori will account for an increasing share (esp. of older population) • Rotorua’s young will be in increasing demand, everywhere • Across industries, regions, other countries • Investment in this ‘window of opportunity’ is now critical, especially for young Māori • Watch for those waves and troughs.. They will affect demand for services, labour supply/costs, eventually house prices

  28. Thankyou • natalie.jackson@waikato.ac.nz • www.waikato.ac.nz/nidea

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