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SSHP with VAR Capabilities

SSHP with VAR Capabilities. Tracy Howieson WGRFC August 8, 2007. Project Scope. Funded by the 2006 Hurricane Supplemental Incorporates VAR capabilities to update SAC-SMA states for SSHP Available SAC-SMA state adjustments RFC Transferred States Unadjusted States VAR Adjusted States

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SSHP with VAR Capabilities

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  1. SSHP with VAR Capabilities Tracy Howieson WGRFC August 8, 2007

  2. Project Scope • Funded by the 2006 Hurricane Supplemental • Incorporates VAR capabilities to update SAC-SMA states for SSHP • Available SAC-SMA state adjustments • RFC Transferred States • Unadjusted States • VAR Adjusted States • VAR capabilities allow WFO to maintain SAC-SMA states without overhead from RFC • WGRFC to test VAR results and new SSHP functionality • Select WFO’s to test functionality before national deployment

  3. VAR • Variational Assimilation Program • Adjusts soil moisture states for SAC-SMA by assimilating to the following data sets: • Initial SAC-SMA States • Mean Areal Precipitation (MAPX) • Mean Areal Potential Evaporation (MAPE) • Stream flow • VAR adjusts the SAC-SMA state variables and the MAPX and MAPE estimates such that the resulting model simulation matches the observed.

  4. RFC Transfer States • RFC tasks for producing SAC-SMA States for SSHP • Develop 1-hr models in OFS for all SAC-SMA SSHP locations • RFC run 1-hr models daily to ensure accurate states • Not currently done at most RFCs • RFC transfer SAC-SMA states once a day to WFO • Transfer capability in existing SSHP • This requires considerable overhead on RFC staff

  5. VAR Updating of SAC-SMA States • WFO would be able to select to update SAC-SMA states locally using the VAR capability • Produces two different time series • VAR Adjusted • Unadjusted VAR • VAR runs hourly from cron • RFC states update once daily • VAR process creates time series and stores results in the fcst_discharge data base table. • User can select desired time series to base forecast on

  6. UVAT2 July 21, 2007 12Z Unadjusted VAR Time Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

  7. UVAT2 July 21, 2007 13Z Unadjusted VAR Time Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

  8. UVAT2 July 21, 2007 14Z Unadjusted VAR Time Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

  9. UVAT2 July 21, 2007 15Z Unadjusted VAR Time Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

  10. UVAT2 July 21, 2007 16Z Unadjusted VAR Time Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

  11. UVAT2 July 21, 2007 17Z Unadjusted VAR Time Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

  12. UVAT2 July 21, 2007 18Z Unadjusted VAR Time Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

  13. UVAT2 July 21, 2007 19Z Unadjusted VAR Time Series Adjusted VAR Time Series

  14. Current Testing Results • Database Issues • Processes not finishing before next process initiated • Crashed database during flood event • Developer has made changes to account for this issue • VAR Fortran Program • VAR does not run successfully but a time series is created and stored in database • Developer is working with VAR scientist to rectify • WGRFC providing feedback on GUI functionality

  15. Future Work • Incorporate routing operation to allow for non-headwater locations • Lag/K method • Incorporate current work in VAR project • Handling timing errors due to unit hydrograph • Target Date for deployment • OB 9

  16. Live Demonstration

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