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What’s a Testbed?

What’s a Testbed?. Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14. The Title Slide. Funded Title: Super-Regional Testbed to Improve Models of Environmental Processes for the US Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts. Translated Title:

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What’s a Testbed?

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  1. What’s a Testbed? Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  2. The Title Slide.. Funded Title: Super-Regional Testbed to Improve Models of Environmental Processes for the US Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coasts Translated Title: Make Computer Models that Simulate Processes in Coastal Waters Easier to Use. Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  3. What is the Testbed? 1Yr - $4 million through NOAA/IOOS to SURA Program Calendar – May 2010 to May 2011 64 individuals from 20 Universities & 2 Companies Multi-Agency involvement and benefit Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  4. What are the goals of this Testbed? • Less about the models than the process. • Consensus process for Transition to Ops • Value Added… Enable Modeling and Analysis • IOOS Subsystem Portfolio Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  5. The Testbed Teams 3 members 10 members 25 members Doug Levin, IOOS Liz Smith, SURA Liz Smith 21 members 20 members 24 members Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  6. Testbed Advisory Evaluation Group Review Suggest Advise Eric Baylor NOAA/NESDIS/STAR Aijun Zhang NOAA/COOP&SVC/PMAB Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  7. Waves + Tides + Barometric Pressure Tropical & Extra Tropical Atlantic & Gulf Coasts High Water Marks Coastal Inundation Scituate Harbor, MA Cameron, LA Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  8. 7 EST Dec. 27 Scituate Harbor, MA Extra Tropical Storm Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  9. Inundation Successes • Grids, forcing, and observational data for specific storms are being shared for community testing. • Direct comparisons are being made between operational inundation models and academic community models. • Community building by modeling groups. Working together, sometimes for the first time…. • Improved academic - government partnerships Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  10. Chesapeake Gulf of Mexico A Proxy for Comparing Hydrodynamic Models “Reduce uncertainty about the relationship between nitrogen and phosphorus loads and the formation, extent,, duration, and severity of the hypoxic zone, to inform adaptive management.” Estuarine Hypoxia Shelf Hypoxia Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  11. Shelf Hypoxia Shallow Separate from Deep Hypoxia? Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  12. Where Does the Deep Hypoxic Water Come From? Shelf Hypoxia Picture of Nepheloid Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  13. Early “Insights” into the “Deeps”… Summer near bottom residence > 4 months Most near bottom water tracks near the shelf-break Filament structures are observed in the flow Along track variations in oxygen are observed There may be no “source” of hypoxic bottom water. Hypoxia may happen to water that is already there…. Shelf Hypoxia Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  14. Standardize Everything • Standard Sensor Data • Standard Data Storage • Structured & Unstructured • Consensus Skill Assessment • Standardized Output • Common Transition Protocol The Cyber Tool Box Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  15. Cyber Toolbox – Make the Data Universally Usable Different Data Format In.. DIF Universal Format Out Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  16. Cyber Tool Box – Standardize the Output Bottom Salinity Bottom DO Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  17. Glider/Model Comparison Tool Salinity Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  18. Cyber Tool Box - Model Skill Assessment Model Prediction of Wave Height Measured Wave Height Target Analysis IMEDS – Interactive Model Evaluation & Diagnostic System Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  19. Estuarine Hypoxia Stratification Dissolved Oxygen > 5 Hydrodynamic models > 3 Biological (DO) models 2004 data from > 28 CBP stations Models doing better on oxygen than stratification!

  20. Hypoxic Volume from Simple (1-term) vs. Complex (ICM) Models Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  21. Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay • Simple 1 term model for DO reproduces seasonal variability in hypoxic volume about as well as complex watershed + water quality model. • Only weak correlation between DO and stratification • DO is not highly sensitive to changes in freshwater inflow • Extent of hypoxia zone is strongly related to wind direction – • North Atlantic Oscillation? Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  22. Hypotheses – Is Hypoxia correlated with NAO? Nitrate Load decreases from 1970’s Hypoxic Volume Increases in 1985 Flow Average Increases Slightly Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  23. http://testbed.sura.org One Stop Shop URL

  24. CONOPS for R2O Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  25. CONOPS for R2O • The model must meet a demonstrated need. • The model results must be timely and reliable. • The model results must be “more correct”, showing decreased uncertainty. • The model must be useable, incorporating standardized terms and formats • The Operational Center must establish a dialog with the modelers. • Resources needed for transition must be identified. Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  26. Year 1 Leave Behinds – May, 2011 Cyber Tool Box for Model Analysis and Comparison One-Stop-URL - Testing, Visualization, Communication Consensus Process for Transition to Operations Super-Regional Testbed – NOAA-RC-2011-03-14

  27. What’s in the Testbed Future? • Expand to more regions & more coastal issues • Examine more factors (e.g. data assimilation approaches, model coupling) • Build out the cyberinfrastructure (more functionality, toolboxes for other languages, web services, outreach, training) • Find a way to sustain testbed activities Thank you. doug.levin@noaa.gov

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