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Signposts and Omens Setting the Stage. Peter B. Boyce Nantucket Maria Mitchell Association and Past Executive Officer, American Astronomical Society pboyce@aas.org http://www.aas.org/~pboyce. Nantucket Harbor – Feb 2, 2004. Can We Predict 5 Years Ahead?. Technology dependent
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Signposts and OmensSetting the Stage Peter B. Boyce Nantucket Maria Mitchell Association and Past Executive Officer, American Astronomical Society pboyce@aas.org http://www.aas.org/~pboyce P. Boyce
Nantucket Harbor – Feb 2, 2004 P. Boyce
Can We Predict 5 Years Ahead? • Technology dependent • Tools for production • Distribution via the Internet • Access and reading • Currently depend on available browsers • Publisher dependent • Mergers galore - investment opportunity • Publisher adaptability, yes – no P. Boyce
Can We Predict 5 Years Ahead? • Author dependent • Will authors write for electronic media? • Take advantage of new capabilities? • Reader dependent • Will reader habits change? • What indicators can we use to look ahead? • How successful were we five years ago? P. Boyce
What Actually HappenedDuring the Last 5 Years? • 5 Years of incredibly rapid growth • Enormous growth in available bandwidth • Wireless is now everywhere • We did not foresee this • None of us envisioned just how rapid the growth would be P. Boyce
What Actually HappenedDuring the Last 5 Years? • Dot-com boom and bust • Came and went in 3 years • Overpromising and underperforming • The Internet accelerates time • Relentless cycles of new software and hardware • Changing environment, no permanence • The Internet has entered everyone’s life P. Boyce
Bottom Line • Major influence on STM comes from outside – beyond our control • “Disney” drives technology development • Dot-com craze drove bandwidth expansion • Business needs drive wireless availability • Mergers driven by investment bankers • Difficult to make accurate predictions P. Boyce
Setting the Scene - Five Years Ago • Google opened 7 Sept, 1998 • Pal-Pal for e-bay opened in 1998 • Napster founded - May 1999 • Agreed to stop free sharing - Sept 2001 • 1999Technologies of the Year were: • E-Trade • Online Banking • MP3 P. Boyce
What Did We Predict in 1999? • Fewer, but bigger, publishers – Mergers • More consortia of libraries • Difficulty in locating information • More electronic journals • Range from slow growth to all electronic • Inertia and conservatism inhibit change • Technology will drive change P. Boyce
Final Thoughts • Quoting from my 1999 presentation: “If it is not on the Web, it does not exist!” • This was true for the astronomy community in 1999, and it is true for a broader segment of the public now. • Everyone uses Google • We have a new verb – to Google • As we learn from NASA, any noun can be verbed P. Boyce
Signposts and Omens • In this session we look at four areas • Examine what happened and “predict” future • Linking – Interconnecting good information • Library Consortia – The good, the bad … • Europe – Connected, but not monolithic • The Humanities – Breaking old habits P. Boyce