Human Population

1. Human Population

2. Dr. Isaac Asimov (in this 1966 interview he predicted that world population would reach 6 billion near the year 2000. We passed the 6 billion mark in October 1999.)  • "Which is the greater danger - nuclear warfare or the population explosion? The latter absolutely! To bring about nuclear war, someone has to DO something; someone has to press a button. To bring about destruction by overcrowding, mass starvation, anarchy, the destruction of our most cherished values-there is no need to do anything. We need only do nothing except what comes naturally - and breed. And how easy it is to do nothing."

3. LINEAR vs. EXPONENTIAL

4. http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/world_population/http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/world_population/

5. 1 3 2

6. Countries and Areas Ranked by Population: 2009 • Rank Country or Area Population 1 China 1,338,612,968 2 India 1,156,897,766 3 United States 307,212,123 4 Indonesia 240,271,522 5 Brazil 198,739,269 6 Pakistan 174,578,558 7 Bangladesh 156,050,883 8 Nigeria 149,229,090 9 Russia 140,041,247 10 Japan 127,078,679 237 Pitcairn Islands 48

7. Demography The study of the size, composition, & distribution of human populations and consequences of changes in these characteristics.

8. 2009 Population Growth Rates • United States = 0.98% • China growth rate = 0.66% • India growth rate = 1.41% • Kenya growth rate = 2.69% • How to use this number: Multiply the country’s current population by this number to see next year’s population total

9. Determines how many years it will take a population to double in size. 70 = % growth rate EX: % growth rate for world is = 1.13% 70 = 61 years 1.41 Rule of 70

10. ZPG • Zero Population Growth • Birth = Death • Immigrants = Emigrants • Population growth rate = 0% • The Earth’s Goal for all countries • Japan is actually declining in population • Annual growth rate = -0.13

11. Earth’s Human Annual Rate of Population Change 1963 = 2.2% 2009 = 1.13% Rate of the world’s population is slowing, BUT population went from 3.2 billion to 6.7 billion during this time! Developing Countries = 1.46% Developed Countries = 0.25% Fastest growing countries: INDIA, KENYA, PAKISTAN, NIGERIA, BANGLADESH, & INDONESIA. http://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/animations/world_population/

12. Developing vs. Developed Countries

13. GDP GDP = Gross Domestic Product Goods & services provided within a country Per Capita GDP = GDP divided by total population Assumes each person gets equal share

14. Developing Countries Per capita GDP <$4,000 Low to moderate industrialization Rural, agricultural, illiterate, poor 80% of world’s population 50% of population is under age 15 15% of wealth 10-20% of resource usage

15. List of Least Developed CountriesUN 2008 1. Afghanistan 2. Angola 3. Bangladesh 11. Chad 17. Ethiopia Per capita GDP $700 (‘03) $1900 (‘04) $1900 (‘03) $1200 (‘03) $700 (‘03)

16. Reasons for Large Families in Developing Countries • Old age security • Infant and childhood mortality rates • Children are an economic asset • Grow food, gather fuel, tend livestock, beg, carry water

17. Developed Country Per capita GDP >$4,000 Highly industrialized Urban, industrial, educated, & wealthy 20% of world’s population 85% of wealth 80 - 90% of resource usage

18. Per capita GDP (2008) #1 - Liechtenstein #3 - Norway $87,070 #14 – United States $47,763 #25 – Canada - $41,730 #74 – Mexico - $9,980 #127 – China - $2,940 #163 – India - $1,070

20. Population Increase in Developed and Developing Countries Where should we implement mechanisms to slow population growth?

21. Fertility Rates

22. What’s this showing?

23. Global Fertility Rates Fertility # of births that occur to an individual woman in a population. Replacement Level Fertility # of children needed to replace their parents Projected number... “should have” Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Average # of children that a woman has during her fertile years. Actual, real number…”does have”

24. Global Fertility Rates Replacement Level Fertility Rates (1997) Developed countries = 2.1 children Developing countries = 2.5 children (Since some baby girls die before they reproduce, the number is slightly greater than two.) Also, not every woman has a child Total Fertility Rates (TFR) (1997) World Average = 3.0 children Developed = 1.6 children 2.5 children in 1950. Developing = 3.4 children 6.5 children in 1950.

25. TFR • Africa has the highest in world • U.S. has had higher than most developed countries: • Large # of baby boomers = moms • Increased number of unmarried mothers • Increased fertility rates in some racial/ethnic groups • Legal/illegal immigrants • (11% of population are foreign born. (NOVA 2007)

26. Factors Affecting Birth & Fertility Rates Increasing Factors Children in labor force Rural areas Lack of birth control Religious/cultural values against birth control Lack of abortion access Younger than 25 at marriage Few jobs for women Lack of educational opportunities Decreasing Factors Low infant mortality rate Educational & job opportunities for women Affluence Cost of raising children Urbanization Older than 25 at marriage Availability of pension systems

27. Fertility Rate and Income

28. Contraceptive Use and Fertility Rates

29. Measures of Overall Health Life expectancy Average # of years a newborn can expect to live Developed countries = 71 years (1997); 77 (2007) Developing countries = 62 years (1997); 64.5 (2007) Infant Mortality Rate # of babies out of every 1,000 who die before their first birthday. Reflects a country’s level of nutrition & health care Single best measure of a society’s quality of life.

30. Factors Affecting Death Rates Population increase over the past 100 years most influenced by the decrease in death rates! Better food supplies & distribution Better nutrition Better water supplies Advances in medicine & sanitation

31. MIGRATION • Is not always voluntary • Involuntary displacement by: • Armed conflict • Environmental degradation • Natural disaster

32. Know the differences. Match Population growth rate IMR ZPG Rule of 70 TFR Replacement fertility How many kids the moms in a pop are having How many infants die per 1000 born Uses current growth rate to estimate when pop will double Multiply the total # of people in the population by this number to project future pop Population is stable. B = D How many kids the moms in a pop have to have to keep the numbers the same

33. Know the differences. 4. Population growth rate 2. IMR 5. ZPG 3. Rule of 70 1. TFR 6. Replacement fertility How many infants die per 1000 born Population is stable. B = D Uses current growth rate to estimate when pop will double How many kids the moms in a pop are having How many kids the moms in a pop have to have to keep the numbers the same Refers to actual number of births (or deaths) that occur per 1000 people

34. Population Age Structure

35. Age Structure Diagrams • The % of males & females in the total population divided by age groups: • 0 - 14 yrs = Pre-Productive ages • 15 - 44 yrs = Reproductive ages • 45 - older yrs = Post-Reproductive ages • ***The MAJOR determining factor of a country’s future population growth is: • the number of pre-productive people! (Under 15 yrs).

36. Where are the baby boomers? http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/summaries.html

37. Is this population growing or shrinking?

38. Is this population growing or shrinking?

39. Disadvantages to declining populations • Increased demand for • Medical care • Social Security • Public services • 2.5 elderly to every 1 young person • U.S. = 31.9% projected tax rate to pay for services. Italy = 71.5% payroll tax • Labor shortages • Alleviated by automation or immigration

40. Projecting Future Populations: Developed Countries

41. Population Projections: Developing NationsRemember, what percent of the total population is developing?

42. Population Power • In 2000, 31% of people on the planet were under 15 yrs old. (1.9 billion people) • 34% of population in developing countries • 19% of population in developed countries • Even if each woman only has 1 or 2 children, the overall population size will soar! • How to slow or stop this exponential growth? • Effective methods to slow birth rates • Drastic rise in death rates • Would a bird flu pandemic be bad for the Earth????

43. The Demographic Transition

44. Demographic Transitioning • PRE-INDUSTRIAL STAGE • Harsh living conditions lead to high birth rate (high IMR) & high death rate • TRANSITIONAL STAGE • Industrialization begins, food production goes up, healthcare improves • death decreases but birth rates stay high • Rapid growth

45. Demographic Transitioning • INDUSTRIAL STAGE • Industrialization is widespread. • Jobs increase, education & its cost increase, IMR goes down, birth control use is up. • Birth rate approaches death rate • POST-INDUSTRIAL STAGE • ZPG achieved, population size decreases as birth rate continues to fall • Sustainable economic dev’t • 37 countries (mostly W. Europe) have entered

46. Population Control

47. China’s Population Control • Socialist dictatorship • 1960’s realized only option to population control was mass starvation! • Instituted social coercion plan • Free birth control, abortions, & sterilizations • Encouraged to marry at later age & only 1 kid • Between 1972 – 2000 • Crude birth rate drop 50% • TFR dropped from 5.7 to 1.8

48. China’s One Child Policy • Couples who pledged only one child: • Extra food • Larger pensions • Better housing • Free medical care • Salary bonuses • Free school tuition • Preferential treatment in employment markets

49. China’s One Child Policy • Effectiveness • 81% of married women in China are using modern contraception • Increased employment opportunities for women. • Problems • Girls are aborted, killed, and neglected • 2007 – do not have equal number of sexes