Enhancing Operational Ocean Forecasting Systems: Summary and Call for Submissions

1. GOVST – ETOOFS summary • Action – Review obs requirements database OSCAR (http://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/) • Call for agency/centre submissions => Guimei Liu • Action – Statement of guidance • Call for agency/centre submissions => Guimei Liu • Action – Guide for operational ocean forecasting • Call for content writers => Fraser Davidson • Expert review => Fraser Davidson • Action - Operational CLASS4 metrics • Drafting a discussion paper on sustainment/metrics => Gary/Andy • Action – Fukushima/MH370/Oil spiil response • - Engage in the MH370 review servicing • - Coordination of a catalogue of products => Marina/Pierre • - Leverage from the CLASS1 project • Action – Coordination with IICWG (ETOOFS and GOVST identified)

2. GOVST – ETOOFS summary • Discussion paper on enhanced collaboration • Good discussion and some clarification of roles was achieved • Some questions remain • Recommendation of the way forward • Action – Minute the meeting and amend the discussion paper (Kirsten/Long/Gary) • Action – Circulate the discussion paper to GOVST and ETOOFS members invite submissions/comments • Action – Joint discussion • GOVST – Co-chairs and Patrons • JCOMM – Co-President, ETOOFS-Chair/Co-chair • IOC representative, WMO? • OUTCOME – Recommendation/Agreement on changes

3. JCOMM Expert Team for Operational Ocean Forecast Systems Gary Brassington Chair Fraser Davidson Co-chair Long Jiang Secretariat GOVST-V, 13-17 October, 2014, Beijing, China

4. Background GODAE – Experiment to demonstrate OOFS is feasible Post-GODAE GOVST – Continue to drive R&D underpinning OOFS ETOOFS – Intergovernmental team responsible for driving standardisation and integration of OOFS within the intergovernmental framework GOVST and ETOOFS relationship MOU, Joint statement Under review in the context of GOVST strategy Jointly responsible for the end-to-end coordination of OOFS

5. Intergovernmental process - WMO Weather forecasting is coordinated through the WMO Facilitate worldwide cooperation Network of National agencies, offices International coordination of observing requirements International coordination of observing systems International coordination of research and development Standardisation of services Mandate National and international drivers for weather forecasting services User pull is well developed and underpins the mandate Extended to hydrology, climate and

6. Intergovernmental process - IOC Management, sustainable development and protection of marine environment Promote international cooperation Acquire knowledge about the ocean and coastal areas Coordinate programmes in RESEARCH, services and CAPACITY Collaborate with other international organisations Mandate Focal point within UN for ocean matters International law

7. Intergovernmental process - JCOMM Joint commission of WMO and IOC Technical expertise International coordination of OMM observations, data management and services Combining the capabilities of the ocean and met community Mandate WMO and IOC

8. The JCOMM family tree IOC WMO JCOMM-MAN Real-time system SFSPA OPA ETOOFS ETWS ETMSS

9. ETOOFS + GOVST The right starting point is to look at the whole end-to-end problem that we share and agree as a community how “best” to address that total problem. The GOVST-V strategic review (Fraser) is an opportunity to review/refine/change… later in the agenda but only 15 mins.

10. ETOOFS – role/responsibilities • Promote best practices for OOFS • Promote standardisation and quality of downstream services • Coordination across ET’s • OOFS <=> Ice services, coastal hazards, maritime safety • Coordination across the intergovernmental structure for OOFS • PA’s, IOC/WMO • Coordination of monitoring the quality of OOFS and service • Coordinate/collate international stakeholder feedback for R&D • Build capacity

11. ETOOFS workplan (2012-2017)

12. ETOOFS workplan (2012-2017)

13. Workplan leadership • The guide • Fraser Davidson • Performance monitoring • Gary Brassington (Frank Bub)/Andrew Ryan • Observational requirements • Guimei Liu • Ocean extremes monitoring • Gary Brassington (response to WMO GF climate service) • Emergency response • Pierre Daniel/Marina Tonani • Seasonal requirements • Response to WMO GF climate service • Agreed to distribute amongst other workplans • Capacity building • Shiro Ishizaki

14. The Guide • Change in leadership Alistair Sellar => Fraser Davidson • Content writers workshop, 8-10th Sep 2014, Paris • The scope and objectives have been refined • Guide structure is close to complete • Not a manual of R&D like “Operational oceanography in the 21st century” • A guide of systems and practices • drive standardisation and best practices • Provide a toolkit for new agencies/centres • Chapter content requires targeted completion • Andrew Ryan, tasked to draft a chapter on CLASS4 • E.g., sea-ice, atmospheric fluxes • Requests to individuals within the GOVST community • Review of draft • Expert review for a first complete draft • National agency review

15. Performance monitoring • Transition/maturation of CLASS4 to operational common practice • Alistair was facilitating linkage with IV-TT (Andrew Ryan has agreed to facilitate this link) • Coordination of metrics and dissemination • Progress • Promoting its adoption and change management • Andrew Ryan contributing chapter content for “the Guide” • Action to review this as part of “the Guide” • Requested Andrew Ryan to draft a discussion paper for operationalisation (hopefully available for IV-TT) - scope • Requirements/agreements for the server • Publication of metrics, criterion • Change management

16. Observational requirements • Updating requirements • OSCAR – Observing system capability analysis and review tool • http://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/ • Focal point: Guimei • Ocean application area • http://www.wmo-sat.info/oscar/applicationareas/view/10 • Key metrics • Actions: • National agency/center submissions for change/justification => Guimei • IICWG review database and advise of changes and supporting justification • Collation/Redistribution to POC’s/Review/Final submission • CONFIDENCE LEVEL => Request for OSE-TT evidence • Review of Statement of Guidance • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/GOS-RRR.html • http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/OSY/SOG/SoG-Ocean.pdf • Actions required as per above (please identify) • Need clearer linkage with OSE-TT • Coordinate publication of impact statements => JCOMM/OPA • Promote OSE-TT activities within JCOMM • GOVST/Patrons promote JCOMM/Integovernmental role

17. Scope: Global and coastal, sea-ice, atmospheric fluxes

18. Other workplans/new activities • Extreme monitoring • Response to climate response driver of WMO • Use of reanalyses to identify and track ocean extremes • Requires GOVST input (not clear which TT might facilitate this) • Emergency response - Fukushima • Primary activity is between ETMSS and ETOOFS • Coordination of R&D from GOVST is required • Seasonal forecasting linkage • Initial discussion, more required to determine recommendations • Links • observational requirements (OSE-TT already has created these) • Routine monitoring (potential but more activity with WMO group) • Coordination with GOVST required • Capacity building • Some actions: East Africa workshops/Indian Ocean proposal development • Training modules is due (from summer school material) • Sea ice services

19. OOFS  ETSI International Ice Charting Working Group – letter “IICWG has successfully worked for the past 13 years as a forum for the operational ice services” “A significant activity of the IICWG involves applied research and development in models to support operational ice forecasting. We have a sub-working group on Data Assimilation that holds regular workshops” “Obviously, sea ice modeling is intimately inter-connected with both atmospheric and ocean modeling. While the ice modeling community is relatively well-connected with the numerical weather forecasting community, it is less so with the ocean forecasting community. This issue was discussed at the recent IICWG meeting in October 2012 and prompted this letter.”

20. OOFS  ETSI International Ice Charting Working Group – letter “We think that your Expert Team could be instrumental in closing this gap. Specifically, it would be very helpful if the ETOOFS could provide us with guidance on what information the sea ice community could provide to further your work in operational ocean forecasting, including development of “The Guide to Operational Oceanographic Forecasting Systems of the World”. This could be a first step in promoting a closer interaction between the ice and ocean modeling communities.” POC ET tasks - Vasily Smolyanitsky, Chair, JCOMM Expert Team on Sea Ice (vms@aari.ru) POC DA R&D – Tom Carrieres, Chair, IICWG Data Assimilation WG (Tom.Carrieres@ec.gc.ca)

21. OOFS  ETSI ETOOFS – draft response “As you suggest in your letter there are indeed several points of ourworkplan for which Vasily's expertise and that of your group couldcontribute. These include:The Guide - lead by Fraser DavidsonObservation Requirements - lead by Guimei Liu Performance monitoring -jointly coordinated by myself and Andy Ryan.” “There are two further points of linkage that I would recommend be made withGOVST.The first is a task team for short- to medium-range coupled prediction forwhich I am a co-chair. The second is a newly forming task team for data assimilation which is being chaired by Matt Martin. Matt would likely welcome linkages to the IICWG data assimilation WG.” Linkage to the Polar Year

22. Other new priorities • Consensus,OCF,multi-model ensemble • Framework/agreements for sharing products for emergencies • GOVST coordination of the R&D

23. JCOMM ETOOFS and GOVSTdiscussion Based on a discussion paper ET-OOFS and GODAE OceanView Enhanced Collaboration Options In Response to GOV Review 2013 GOVST-V, 13-17 October, 2014, Beijing, China

24. Common shared goal • “international coordination for the end-to-end transition of R&D through to quality OFS services to meet stakeholder requirements with a feedback evaluation of the problem and solution to reset the R&D priorities” • Collated tasks WMO/IOC: • Facilitate worldwide cooperation • Network of National agencies, offices • International coordination of observing requirements • International coordination of observing systems • International coordination of research and development • Standardisation of services • Acquire knowledge about the ocean and coastal areas • Coordinate programmes in capacity

25. Cooperation • Two groups require an effective structure to work well : • A shared core vision (agreed by both parents also) • Managed autonomy to evolve and respond to new problems • Clarification of the separation of roles • Coordination between the two groups for less defined areas • Clarity over hierarchy, peer-to-peer or service-provider • Clarity over governance, management and authority • Review of this process

26. Structural differences • ETOOFS • Hierarchical parenting WMO/IOC=>JCOMM-MAN=>SFSPA • Intergovernmental period • Secretariat, Jiang Long • Membership formal process/limited by funding (13 members), operational practitioners • Workplan approved and monitored by JCOMM-MAN • Work coordinated by Experts, drawing on member states, GOVST • Outcomes/activities published through JCOMM

27. Structural differences • GOVST • Patrons group (weak link to JCOMM-MAN) • Not aligned with the Intergovernmental period • GOV office, Kirsten Wilmer Becker • Membership voluntary/open, entry-level through to expert R&D • Workplan approved by patrons • Work conducted through Task Teams

28. Previous arrangements Memorandum of understanding Joint statement

29. Some successes • Practical measures of cooperation : • Capacity building – GOV summer school 2010 • Performance monitoring – transitioning GOVST CLASS4 intercomparisons to a framework for broad adoption of operators • Observational requirements – engagement with the OSE-TT to provide the evidence and statements of impact to underpin the observational requirements. • The vision of “the guide” was for members of GOV to be contributors and reviewers and expected to be taken further during GOVST-V • Examples where the structure is not successful • The Fukushima disaster, requiring coordination of the R&D component • Establishing supporting linkages with seasonal community to underpin ET-OOFS workplan • Establishing linkages with the sea-ice R&D to underpin the linkage with ETSI/IICWG • Extreme monitoring to respond to WMO climate response • How do we facilitate a response within GOVST, volunteers and Task team structure?

30. How are other groups organised? ETWCH Smaller scale, combine GOVST and ETOOFS functions WGNE Larger scale JSC/CAS Working Group for Numerical Experimentation (analogous to GOVST) ETOOFS activities are separated from R&D GOV task teams typically also separate groups from WGNE Clear goal to merge weather forecasting into earth systems including ocean, waves, sea-ice as well as the land-surface. (SMRCP linkage)

31. Identified issues – non exhaustive • The areas of responsibility of GOV and ET-OOFS need clearer separation. • GOV to be clearly identified with scientific leadership and advice and ET-OOFS with responsibility for standards and operations of ocean forecasting systems including routine activities as indicated by GOV Review 2013 • The Panel recommends that reporting lines from GOV to OOPC and JCOMM should be better defined and include the ability for both bodies to seek advice, and make requests for action from GOV. • The patrons group should facilitate informing national agencies of key findings from routine monitoring of models and observing systems to assist in decision/policy making. • The patrons group should also promote operational centers participation in routine real-time model intercomparisons and in coordinating routine observing system monitoring approaches through collaboration with GOV/ET-OOFS members

32. Options - ET-OOFS and GOVST continue current activities • Continue to transfer proven model intercomparisons through to sustained operational performance monitoring metrics for endorsement of member states • Continue to establish the underpinning evidence for observational requirements and impacts to provide the rigor and evidence for formalised observational requirements within the intergovernmental process • Contribute to the content and review process of the OOFS Guide Book to document current practices and drive best practice and standardization. • ET-OOFS to continue to inform GOVST on its workplans and other requirements for response within JCOMM of relevance to GOVST response • GOVST to continue to inform ET-OOFS of its workplans and establish clarity on its capacity to respond to JCOMM requirements • GOVST is the recommend entry point for countries looking to get started with building systems for operational oceanography. New countries wanting to transition systems into operations will be referred to the ET-OOFS Guide when available to guide practices. ET-OOFS requires a path to permit newly established centres to engage in the future decisions on best practices for common adoption.

33. Options - ET-OOFS and GOVST enhance current activities • ET-OOFS and GOV review and monitor their projects to ensure they identify activities that need to be transferred between the groups. ET-OOFS projects where R&D is needed, would then be brought to GOV for discussion as research projects. • Underpinning policy guidance is required for the Patrons/JCOMM-MAN to clarify areas that are rejected by the respective group and resolve constraints • For example the ET-OOFS project on Ocean Extreme Monitoring was presented to GOVST to seek a response from GOVST but did not receive a response. Similarly for the Fukushima disaster. • The mis-alignment of the workplan formation between the two groups is an obstacle to the flexibility to respond. • The structure of the drivers at the Patrons and JCOMM-MAN level requires clear direction for GOVST and ET-OOFS to coordinate • Applicable ET-OOFS projects where GOVST is required to contribute, a process is required to establish new workplans as joint or sub-project tasks. (example intercomparison GOVST IV-TT and ET-OOFS workplan).

34. Options - ET-OOFS and GOVST enhance current activities • Align project cycle plan/review between ET-OOFS and GOVST. JCOMM has some flexibility to change ET-OOFS plans but is constrained to align with the Intergovernmental intersessional period. GOVST could aim to align their planning cycle with the same intergovernmental cycle. • ET-OOFS act as liaison between GOVST and JCOMM. ET-OOFS report JCOMM recommendations, requests and findings to Patrons Group supported by the secretariat. • JCOMM-MAN/SFSPA/ET-OOFS develops a strategy which will enable synchronisation with GOV’s 5-10 year strategy. Facilitation of joint work plans as required. • ET-OOFS meetings collocated with GOVST or task team meetings? on a periodic, but not necessarily annual basis (i.e. start end of intercessional cycles) . • ET-OOFS looks at end user requirements (survey) and liaison: reporting this to JCOMM but also GOVST and GOV Patrons (Not a minor task, targeted resourcing likely required)

35. Options - ET-OOFS and GOVST enhance current activities • GOVST survey trends and new directions in the R&D and inform ET-OOFS/JCOMM to prepare for transition and standardisation activities • Consider joint ET-OOFS / GOV meetings including symposiums and stakeholder forums • ET-OOFS include some focus on the service desk requirements for operational ocean forecast systems (Note that this was in the original ToR but was removed in the JCOMM-4 by JCOMM-MAN/SFSPA) • Consider JCOMM-MAN rep joining Patrons Group. This would help with ET-OOFS/ GOV liason, codifying GOV linkage to JCOMM, and better aligning ET-OOFS and GOV effort. Furthermore would help GOV prediction system uptake by various JCOMM groups (Ice prediction, ice berg drift prediction …). • ET-OOFS to modify it’s work plan to insert preparation for a JCOMM user assessment group of ocean forecast systems (I.e. GOV research and development) for 2017.

36. Options – Formal tie between ET-OOFS and GOVST • Evolve GOVST Patrons group to a joint GOVST/ET-OOFS Patrons Group inclusive of JCOMM-MAN/SFSPA and user stakeholders. • Rationale: The Patrons members have an end to end interest (Research, Development and Operations) for ocean forecasting capacity. This comprises both ET-OOFS and GOV objectives. • Provide access to additional resources to facilitate and drive responses to priority areas and new and ad hoc initiatives • Patrons group ensures that ET-OOFS and GOVST areas of responsibility are defined and policy surrounding joint, sub-project and authorisation/endorsement and management with competing priorities • Consider joint ET-OOFS / GOV meetings including symposiums and stakeholder forums

37. Options – Formalise GOVST within intergovernmental research program • Establish GOVST as a sub-group under WCRP (http://www.wcrp-climate.org/) to drive ocean prediction within the earth system framework. • Or alternative structure