1 / 23

Presentation to Prem Conference 2006

SOUTH AFRICA TECHNOLOGY BASED EXPORTS: AN AGGREGATE ASSESSMENT AND SOME CASE STUDIES. Presentation to Prem Conference 2006. Professor David Kaplan Department of Economics and Graduate School of Business, University of Cape Town.

evangelina
Download Presentation

Presentation to Prem Conference 2006

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. SOUTH AFRICA TECHNOLOGY BASED EXPORTS: AN AGGREGATE ASSESSMENT AND SOME CASE STUDIES Presentation to Prem Conference 2006 Professor David KaplanDepartment of Economics and Graduate School of Business, University of Cape Town

  2. Global Export Shares, 1992-2002: South Africa, Australia, Brazil and Argentina (%)

  3. South Africa Share of Global High Technology Exports1992 – 2002 %

  4. South Africa Share of Global High Technology Exports1992 – 2002 %

  5. SA Share of High Tech Exports • SA share of global high tech exports very low and well below total global share • SA share of global high tech exports has been declining • One exception – radio-active materials (524). RCA >1: Positive balance of trade

  6. Radio Active Materials • Only 4.4% of total HT exports • Very slow growing in global trade • Strong negative growth rate of SA exports

  7. High Tech. Competitiveness • Other commodity exporters are highly competitive in certain globally fast growing high tech areas • Brazil – aircraft and parts (RCA 2.42). 50% of high tech exports • Australia – medicinal and pharmaceutical prods. (RCA 0.6 – 1.1). 25% of high tech • South Africa – only uranium ores. 4% of high tech exports. Slow growing global exports

  8. Explaining this weak overall Manufacturing Export Performance? • Not a lack of market demand or access • Changes in demand impact on export supply through changes in international prices • Responsive to real currency depreciations (and post 2002 appreciations) but response tempered by volatility • Constraints are on the supply side – infrastructure and availability of skills

  9. Technology based Exports – Some suggestive Case Studies • Energy / Chemicals • Pharmaceuticals • Software – small, medium • Fine Wines

  10. SASOL • World technology leader in a fast growing area • 10% of business R&D in SA • $100 million per annum + Large recent K investments • Growing • 350 FTE Researchers (100 post-doc.) • Global Footprint • Importance to the region

  11. SASOL • Role of the state • HO based technology • JV internationalization (Chevron)

  12. PEBBLE BED MODULATOR NUCLEAR REACTOR • Indigenous technology linked to nuclear programme • Massive state support • Uncertain success

  13. PHARMACEUTICAL • Appetite suppressant • Estimated US market >$3 billion • San-CSIR-Phytofarm-Unilever • San to receive 8% milestone payments and 8% of global sales • Sui generis rights

  14. PHARMACEUTICAL • Unique arrangement • Manage the process in Africa • In the North, market size and regulation require a partner • Significant share goes to the “North”

  15. SOFTWARE - Small • Many small companies <20 employees • Reliance on one innovative product • Exporting cos. Have some foreign connection • In home market, protected by product complexity • In global market, require IPR

  16. SOFTWARE - Small • Many sell via web portals • Require no marketing cost • Often export to other African countries • Growth constraints appear in marketing / support

  17. SOFTWARE - Small • Government support confined to skill provision

  18. SOFTWARE – Medium/Large • Transaction processing systems • Early internationalization strategy • Local development • Marketing constraints • Locate HO abroad • No state support

  19. SOFTWARE – Large • Thawte – digital certificates • Largely web based sales • Sale to US Company • No state support

  20. FINE WINES • Main problem is markets • Aligning operations to consumer need • Main problem is not technology • State support for technology • Need for collective marketing • Buyers are the main drivers of technological change

  21. POLICY PRIORITIES FOR AFRICA • Develop modern engineering faculties that articulate with infrastructure provision (ICT, power, transport and logistics) • Grow specialized technical and engineering services related to main raw material outputs • Public R&D – build institutions and practices incl., competition in the system; fiscal certainty; long-term planning; budgeting linked to goals • Dedicated ministry/agency with oversight and responsibility for the system

  22. POLICY PRIORITIES FOR SOUTH AFRICA • Expand engineering and technical skills significantly • Do more to promote Higher Education – Business linkages especially for SMMEs • Explicit policies to attract knowledge intensive FDI – especially to serve the continent • Coordinate industrial and technology policies

  23. THANKS • Mike Kahn – Human Sciences Research Council • Erika Kraemermbula – University of Oxford • Gatsha Mazithulela – CSIR • Adi Patterson – DDG Department of Science and Technology

More Related