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EXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS

EXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (Euro-Mediterranean) SCALE. Antonella Sanna (2) , E. Scoccimarro (1) , S. Gualdi (1,2) , A. Bellucci (2) , M. Montesarchio (2) , E. Bucchignani (2,3) , A. Navarra (1,2)

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EXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS

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  1. EXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (Euro-Mediterranean) SCALE • Antonella Sanna(2), E. Scoccimarro(1), S. Gualdi(1,2), A. Bellucci(2), M. Montesarchio(2), E. Bucchignani(2,3), A. Navarra(1,2) • (1)INGV - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (National Institute for Geophysics and Volcanology), Bologna, Italy • (2)CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change), Bologna, Italy • (3)CIRA - Centro Italiano Ricerche Aerospaziali “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011

  2. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 STRUCTURE OF PRESENTATION • Brief models description • Indexes definition • Examples of results • Model verification 1

  3. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 • MODELS DESCRIPTION 2

  4. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the global model GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE MODEL (historical+sresa1b prescribed gases and aerosols) ECHAM5 T159 ~ 80 km and 31 vert. levels Roeckner et al. (2003) Heat, Water and Momentum Flux Heat, Water and Momentum Flux SST SST and Sea-ice MEDITERRANEAN SEA MODEL NEMO/MFS 1/16° ~ 7 km 71 vert. levels Oddo et al. (2009) GLOBAL OCEAN & SEA-ICE MODEL OPA/ORCA2 2º ~200 km 31 vert, levels Madec et al. (1998) LOUVAIN-LA-NEUVE SEA- ICE MODEL Timmermann et al. (2005) T, S,u, v, η COUPLER OASIS 3 Valcke (2006) Coupling between atmosphere and oceans every 2 hours Coupling between global ocean and Mediterranean Sea every 8 hours 3

  5. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 CLIMATE MODELS AT CMCC: the regional model CMCC-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) domain. The horizontal resolution is 14 km. The simulation is forced using 6 hourly data from CMCC-MED over 1970-2100 period. 4

  6. DATA AVAILABILITY • Global model (T159, 2ox2o, 1/16°) • Regional model ~ 14 km • Both climate model simulations cover the period 1970-2100 5

  7. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 • INDEXES FOR EXTREME EVENTS • CHARACTERIZATION 6

  8. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TEMPERATURE INDEXES: 5th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN5P 10th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN10P 95th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN95P 90th Percentile of the daily minimum temperature: TN90P Seasonal average of minimum daily temperature: MEANTN 5th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX5P 10th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX10P 95th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX95P 90th Percentile of the daily maximum temperature: TX90P Seasonal average of maximum daily temperature: MEANTX Total number of consecutive days with maximum daily temperature exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile: WSDI90 Total number of consecutive days with minimum daily temperature is below the long term (1971-2100) 10th percentile: CSDI10 7

  9. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PRECIPITATION INDEXES: 95th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC95P 90th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC90P 5th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC5P 10th Percentile of the total daily precipitation: PREC10P Number of days with daily precipitation exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : R90N Number of days with daily precipitation exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : R95N Number of days with daily precipitation lower than the long term (1971-2100) 10th percentile : RL10N Number of days with daily precipitation lower than the long term (1971-2100) 5th percentile : RL5N Averaged daily precipitation over wet days (wet day defined if precipitation is >= 1[mm/day]): SDII Maximum (not total) number of consecutive dry days (dry day defined if precipitation is < 1 [mm/day]): CDD 8

  10. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 WIND INDEXES: 95th Percentile of the 10 meter wind speed: WI95P 90th Percentile of the 10 meter wind speed: WI90P Number of days with daily wind speed exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : WI90N Number of days with daily wind speed exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : WI95N 95th Percentile of the 10 meter maximum wind speed: WIMAX95P 90th Percentile of the 10 meter maximum wind speed: WIMAX90P Number of days with maximum wind speed exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 90th percentile : WIMAX90N Number of days with maximum wind speed exceeding the long term (1971-2100) 95th percentile : WIMAX95N 9

  11. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 • EXAMPLES OF RESULTS 10

  12. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 Example: CMCC global model TX90P and trends SUMMER SEASON 11

  13. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 Example: CMCC global model PREC10P and trends SUMMER SEASON 12

  14. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 Example: CMCC global model WI90P and trends SUMMER SEASON 13

  15. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 Example: CMCC global model WI90N and trends SUMMER SEASON 14

  16. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 • MODEL VERIFICATION 15

  17. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 OBSERVATIONAL DATASET: SPAIN02 • Spain02 is a new high-resolution daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures gridded dataset developed for peninsular Spain and the Balearic islands. A dense network of ~2500 quality-controlled stations (~250 for temperatures) from the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET) was selected to build the Spain02 grid with a regular 0.2º (aprox. 20 km) horizonal resolution spanning the period from 1950 to 2008. The gridding methodology used for precipitation is based on a two step kriging approach (binary for precipitation outcomes, and ordinary for amounts); in the case of temperatures, thin plane splines are fitted to the monthly data considering the orography (elevation) and an ordinary kriging was later applied to the residuals. 16

  18. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PREC90P: DJF 1971-2000 17

  19. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PREC90P: JJA 1971-2000 18

  20. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PREC10P: DJF 1971-2000 19

  21. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 PREC10P: JJA 1971-2000 20

  22. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TX90P: DJF 1971-2000 21

  23. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TX90P: JJA 1971-2000 22

  24. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TN10P: DJF 1971-2000 23

  25. “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011 TN10P: JJA 1971-2000 24

  26. The authors thank AEMET and UC for the data provided for this work (Spain02 dataset) “International Conference on Fire Behavior and Risk” Alghero, 5 October 2011

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