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Climate projections for the watershed of the Delaware Estuary

This study evaluates climate model performance in the Delaware Estuary watershed and provides future climate projections under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The study analyzes 14 climate models and observations to assess temperature, precipitation, and climatic extremes. The results indicate a warming trend, increased precipitation, longer growing seasons, and more frequent extreme precipitation events.

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Climate projections for the watershed of the Delaware Estuary

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  1. Climate projections for the watershed of the Delaware Estuary Raymond Najjar Department of Meteorology The Pennsylvania State University 2011 Delaware Estuary Science Conference Thanks to Matt Rydzik and Andrew Ross Support: Partnership for the Delware Estuary and EPA Climate Ready Estuaries Program

  2. Goals • Assess climate model performance over Delaware Estuary watershed • Provide climate projections under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

  3. Models, observations, & methods • 14 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 3 (CMIP3) • Model resolution ~1.5-4.5º • Observed radiative forcing for 20th century, and B1 and A2 emissions scenarios for 21st century • Daily output for temperature and precipitation • Observations from U. Delaware (monthly, from 1901) and North American Regional Reanalysis (daily, from 1979) • Model output and observations gridded to 1º resolution

  4. Analysis domain Results presented will be averaged over this 1º× 3º domain

  5. Model evaluation: monthly means • Slightly too cool and wet • Large precipitation spread

  6. Model evaluation: interannual variability • Slightly too variable in temperature • Annual cycle in temperature variability good • Annual cycle in precipitation variability missed

  7. Model evaluation:intramonthly variability Good, with slight underestimate of precipitation variability

  8. Overall model evaluation based on six metrics Model average WORSE BETTER

  9. Model evaluation for climatic extremes

  10. 21st Century Climate Projections • Changes with respect to 1980-1999 for three future time periods: 2011-2030 (early century), 2046-2065 (mid century), and 2080-2099 (late century). • B1 (lower emissions) and A2 (higher emissions) scenarios are shown.

  11. Temperature change • Warmer • Seasonal differences • Model spread • Scenario impact

  12. Precipitation change • Wetter • Seasonal differences • Model spread

  13. Annual frost days and growing season length changes • Based on temperature thresholds • Fewer frost days, longer growing seasons

  14. Changes in precipitation extremes • Increases in heavy precipitation • Large spread among models

  15. Summary • Model-mean plausible for present climate • Early-century results independent of emissions scenario • Late century results sensitive to emissions • All models warm; factor of two range due to model choice • Precipitation projected to increase, particularly in winter and spring • Extreme precipitation projected to increase • Longer growing season, fewer frost days

  16. Thank you

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