The Third Wave

1. Democratization in the late twentieth century By Samuel D. Huntington Li Yuan CHEN/Fumie NAKAMURA The Third Wave

2. Chapter 1 What? The start of the third wave

3. Beginning: At twenty-five minutes after midnight, Thursday, April 25, 1974, in Lisbon, Portugal. • The following 15 years : - Scope: Portugal → Global - 30 countries:Authoritarianism → Democracy - A score of other countries were also affected by the democratic wave.

4. The meaning of democracy Chapter 1What?

5. Concept of Democracy:As a form of government • Old Usage: Greek Philosophers • Modern Usage: (mid-20c)terms of sources of authority for government, purpose served by government, and procedures for constituting government.

6. Central Procedure of Democracy - Joseph Schumpeter (1942) Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy : Selection of leaders through competitive elections by the people they govern. • How to define political system as democracy pp. 7 - Robert Dahl: two dimensions---Contestation and participation

7. The critical point in the process of democracy: pp. 9 • The replacement of a government that was not chosen this way by one that is selected in a free, open, and fair election.

8. Several other points about defining democracy • 1. The definition of democracy in terms of elections is a minimal definition. • 2. Conceivably a society could choose its political leaders through democratic means, but these political leaders might not exercise real power. • 3. The fragility or stability of a democratic political system. • 4. Whether to treat democracy and nondemocracy as a dichotomous or continuous variable. • 5. Nondemocratic regimes do not have electoral competition and widespread voting participation.

10. The waves of democratization Chapter 1 What?

11. Initial push in the West • English Revolution The fundamental Orders of Connecticut JANUARY 14,1639 “First written constitution of modern democracy.”

13. The third wave of democratization • First: Southern Europe • Late 1970s: move to Latin Americaalso in Asia. • The end of the decade: engulfed the communist world. • The movement toward democracy was a global one. • The democratization waves and the reverse waves suggest a two-step-forward, one- step backward pattern.

15. The issues of democratization Chapter 1 What?

16. 1. Political democracy is closely associated with freedom of the individual. • 2. Political stability and form of government are two different variables. • 3. The spread of democracy has implications for international relations. • The future of democracy in the world is special importance to Americans.

17. Ch.2 “WHY” Why Do Democratization Waves Occur?

18. 4 Possible Explanations of Democratization Waves

19. Single Cause • One single cause(A) can cause a democratization(x) in multiple countries. For example: a rise of a new superpower, major change in international distribution of power, war.

20. Parallel Development • Democratization could be caused by similar developments in the same independent variables (a1, a2…) • For example: when a country has reached a certain level of GNP, it is likely to develop democracy.

21. Snowballing • An important cause for democratization occurs in one country (a1) and it triggers further democratization movements in different countries. (Not simultaneously.)

22. Prevailing Nostrum • The specific individual cause of political change (a1 to d4) & common set of political beliefs (z=nostrum to the existing problems) produce similar responses (x1, x2..). • Simultaneous.

23. Dependent and Independent Variables

24. Dependent Variable: Democratization =dynamic, complex. ≠ Democracy • What could be the Independent variable?

25. Possible Independent Variables of the Third Wave

26. 1) Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma • 2) Global Economic Development of the 1960s • 3) Religious Changes • 4) Policies of “External Actors” (Europe and US, etc.) • 5) ”Snowballing,” Demonstration effects

27. 1)Declining Legitimacy and the Performance Dilemma • Authoritarianism: justified by nationalism and ideology. • The victory of the Western Allies in WWII(cause of the second wave) : People came to accept the ideas of democracy • For example; • One-party system (i.e. Communist regime)

28. 2)Global Economic Development of the 1960s • 3 economic factors that affected the third wave: • 1) the oil price hikes and Marxist-Leninist constraints • 2) by the 1970s many countries had achieved overall levels of economic development that provided an economic basis for democracy • 3) rapid economic growth in some countries destabilized authoritarian regimes

29. 3)Religious Changes • Strong correlation exists between Western Christianity and democracy. • I.e. Christianity expanded in South Korea in the 1960s to 70s. • Christianity offered a surer doctrinal and institutional basis for opposing political repression. • Economic growth of catholic countries • Change “within” Catholic Church itself • Efforts by Pope on global base, and more locally by individual priests

30. 4)Policies of “External Actors” • Governments and institutions of external to a country can influence democratization. • European institutions • US: policy toward promotion of human rights in other countries became more active in early 70s. • Carter and Reagan administration • Soviet Union • Mikhail Gorbachev

31. 5)”Snowballing,” Demonstration effects • Contagion, diffusion, or snowballing, or domino effect of democratization from one country to another. • It shows that it can be done and stimulate the second movement. • It shows HOW it can be done. • Expansion of global communication was necessary.

32. To summarize… • Multiple factors contributed to the breakdown or weakening of authoritarian regimes during 1970s and 1980s. • Variety of factors influenced the emergence of democratic regimes during this period. • Last but not least…Democracies are created not by causes but by causers. Political leaders and publics have to act.