LESSONS IN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS AND ADAPTATION: From One Living Resource To Another

1. Dr. John T. Everett and Dr. H. Suzanne Bolton National Marine Fisheries Service LESSONS IN CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTIONS AND ADAPTATION:From One Living Resource To Another

2. 16: FISHERIESIPCC, 1995: Scientific-Technical Analyses of Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change Dr. John T. Everett, Convening Lead Author National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration United States Department of Commerce

3. Lead Authors Dr. Jean-Paul Troadec Dr. Ezekiel Okemwa Brest, France Mombasa, Kenya Dr. Henry A. Regier Dr. Daniel Lluch Belda Toronto, Canada La Paz, BCS, Mexico Andre Krovnin Moscow, Russia

4. Examples of Sensitivities Species • Scallop and fish eggs that rely on a gyre to return them to their habitat on a certain day or week • Fish eggs in streams or on the sea floor that require a minimum current speed for oxygenation • Species that require an influx of freshwater to induce spawning or to kill predators • Temperatures above or below the stock’s lethal limit Societal • Immobility of communities dependent on one type of species • Societies without money needed to buy replacement foods • Fishers unable to deal with new vessel and gear demands

5. Species Sensitivities • Changes: temperature, sea level, river flows, salinity, currents, winds, storms, and variability • Species are dependent on one or more of above • Species can move rapidly if habitat and paths exist • Fish are cold-blooded. Life processes, like growth, are faster when warmer (within limits) • Many species have narrow ecological niches, but there are many species to fill niches • Small changes cause large disruptions to a species • Mixes will change until stability is reestablished.

6. Aquaculture and USA figures are non-additive Fisheries Production

7. Societal Sensitivities • Species in more stable environments are usually more valuable • Fishers can follow fish, communities won’t • Political borders or economics stop pursuit • Developing nations dependent on fish as food or export earnings are most sensitive

8. Freshwater fisheries and aquaculture at mid to higher latitudes should benefit from climate change Saltwater fisheries production should be about the same Locally, fishery areas and species mix are expected to shift Important Findings

9. Important Findings #2 • Climate impacts add to those of overfishing, lost wetlands and nurseries, pollution, UV-B, and natural variation • Inherent instability in world fisheries will be exacerbated by a changing climate • Overfishing is more important than climate change today; as progress accelerates, the relationship should reverse in 50-100 years.

10. CC Impact Ranking for Fisheries 1. Small rivers and lakes, in areas of higher temperatures and less rain 2. Within EEZs, particularly where fishers cannot follow migrating fish 3. In large rivers and lakes 4. In estuaries 5. High seas

11. Adaptation Options 1. Establish better fishery management institutions to reduce societal impact 2. Adapt processing plants and infrastructure to increase flexibility 3. Expand aquaculture to increase seafood and employment stability 4. Monitor several health problems (red tides, ciguatera, cholera) 5. Intervene to redistribute species 6. Manage coastal development to maintain habitat

12. Hydrodynamic predictions are limited with little guidance on: Upwelling Storms and ENSO Strength and direction of currents Sea Level will rise globally, but vary regionally in: Uniformity Pollution effects Habitat loss Oceanography

13. • Global climate is warming; in question is: rate of change manner of change (smooth or fits and starts) extreme events (frequency and strength) • Polar ice masses will shrink; in question is: extent of melting and calving timing Oceanography

14. Areal specificity of results Robustness of ocean/atmosphere linkage Infancy of ecological models Neglect of indirect effects of changing temperature Difficulty in factoring variabilities of living organisms Limitation of data predicting species interactions Global Climate Model Limitations

15. • Time factor favors existing plasticity, not evolution • Broad ranging distributions favored over narrow • Environmental change miscues window of reproductive opportunity • Progeny number/size varies with adult/young heat sensitivities • Sex ratio, mode, or opportunity (asexuality, hermaphrodism) can change • Reproductive sensitivities increase with an increase in UV-B BIOLOGYClimate Change and Species Reproduction

16. • Affect availability of environmental cues and food during migrations • Foodweb members respond independently to changing habitat • Shifting populations may favor “exotic” competitors or opportunists • Altered habitat and populations may complicate conservation efforts • Shrinking polar habitats threaten established foodwebs and available platforms • Alteration in upwellings disrupt communities BIOLOGYChanges in Habitat

17. • Relocating dependent upon availability of favorable temperature range • Sessile forms release motile larvae at whims of currents • Migratory routes shift with changing circulation patterns, temperature, and food availability • Inter-specific behavior disruptions as species vary independently BIOLOGYBehavioral Strategies versus Climate Change

18. • Temperature affects protein, lipid, nucleic, and hormonal activities • Environmental factors trigger alternate pathways • Metabolic regulation exacts costs on organisms • Eurythermal organisms more adaptive than stenotherms • Endothermal organisms more adaptive than ectotherms • Sensitivity of processes may vary with age BIOLOGYImpact on Biochemical Processes

19. Ecosystems tend to respond as individuals not as community • Difficulty in studying complex and diverse ocean ecosystems • Subtle climate change may alter niche and cascade events • Shifting environmental cues may decouple timed events • Understanding of complex interrelationships hampers predictions BIOLOGYChanging Ecosystem Interactions

20. • Erosion, runoff, melting, and inundation increase contaminant input • Introduced toxins and pathogens thrive in warmer medium • Loss of pathogens/parasites with narrow life requirements • Conservation efforts complicated by changing habitat BIOLOGYIndirect Effects

21. Predicted Impacts on Marine Mammals and seabirds • Loss of habitat (ice edge, haul-outs) • Shift in trophic structure and productivity centers • Increase in disease and biotoxins Cannot predict the MAGNITUDE and SIGNIFICANCE of these changes IMPLICATIONS FOR CETACEANSOcean Chapter Predictions

22. Large mammals not well adapted to withstand extreme events slow growth slow maturation low fecundity Genetic diversity and numbers are key to survival IMPLICATIONS FOR CETACEANSReproduction

23. • Changing polar and migratory foodweb and environmental cues • Loss in Arctic ice edge, polynyas, and timing of phytoplankton bloom • Continued Antarctic recession and calving alter krill-based feeding • Altered trophic structure: - Emigration of non-endemic species - Migration and reduction of ice-dependent prey poleward • Change in circulation patterns jeopardizing nutrient flow • Increased UV-B effects on plankton and land-based mammals IMPLICATIONS FOR CETACEANSHabitat and Migratory Routes

24. • Increasing metabolic expense of accommodating climate change • Changes in lipid composition with change in foodweb • Shifting of ranges to accommodate climate and trophic changes • Loss of some habitat ( e.g., polynyas) requires behavioral change IMPLICATIONS FOR CETACEANSBehavioral and Metabolic

25. Changes in habitat trophic structure Arctic - to open water zooplankton-base Antarctic - to higher trophic prey if herbivores decrease Migratory - to higher trophic prey if upwellings and circulation alter IMPLICATIONS FOR CETACEANSEcosystem

26. Increase in metabolic stress: Pathogens and parasite interactions increase risk of disease Anthropogenic contaminants compromise immune systems Increase competition with man Directly by fishing competition Indirectly by conflict with needs of mariculture by pressures to conserve habitat IMPLICATIONS FOR CETACEANSEcosystem (con’t.)

27. • Elevate importance of maintaining sustainable fish populations • Advocate interdisciplinary ecosystem research • Expand definition of sustainable level to accommodate climate change pressures • Emphasize flexibility in the design of open ocean sanctuaries • Increase role in planning, regulating, and managing land and marine resources Management Suggestions