Overview & WRAP Status Check: What are ongoing and emerging regional air quality issues?

1. Overview & WRAP Status Check: What are ongoing and emerging regional air quality issues? Workshop on Regional Emissions & Air Quality Modeling Studies July 29, 2008

2. Regional Emissions & Modeling Workshop • Purpose: • Address plans for developing and updating regional emissions data and conducting modeling studies, and applying those data for the 2009-12 time frame • Determine key emissions sectors requiring further analysis • Discuss needs and capabilities for future regional modeling and analysis techniques • Coordinate with ongoing and planned State/Tribal/Local/Federal modeling activities • Discuss timing, effort, and document results for work planning purposes & next steps

3. Regional Emissions & Modeling Workshop • Identify opportunities for supporting state, tribal, local, and federal air quality planning needs; • Tracking improvements in visibility/reductions in regional haze; • Analyzing source-receptor relationships for nonattainment areas; • Analyzing source receptor relationships for attainment and unclassifiable areas; • Quantifying welfare/ecosystem impacts for remote/rural areas; and • Analysis and development of regional emissions reduction strategies to complement state, tribal, local, and federal air quality planning efforts

4. Key Topics to Consider – Regional Effort to address State/Tribal/Local/Federal issues • Completing foundational Regional Haze Plans • ~2012 Regional Haze mid-course check/planning requirements • WRAP 2008-12 Strategic Plan - Future Regional Analysis Needs for Air Quality Planning • Ozone NAAQS to be regional transport issue for the West • Collect descriptions of initiatives on regional air quality issues • Resource constraints • What questions to ask and answer at which scale(s)?

5. Key Topics to Consider – EPA “top-down” • March 2008 Ozone NAAQS revision – designations/planning requirements/attainment plans • New Ozone Standard – Issues in the West white paper • December 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS revision – designations/planning requirements/attainment plans • Designations from EPA by August 20, 2008 • Future actions by EPA to regulate Mercury? • Review of/future revisions to the Primary & Secondary NAAQS

6. 2008-12 Strategic Plan • WRAP Committees, Forums, and Workgroups have developed a Strategic Plan during 2007 to address the air quality analysis and planning priorities of the state, tribal, and federal members. • Will use the Strategic Plan to develop work plans and budgets for 2009 & 2010 projects. • Build the regional capability to support a one-atmosphere analysis and management approach for air pollution in the West.

7. 2008-12 Strategic Plan • As defined by WRAP members: • Broaden and deepen regional analysis and planning support capabilities to assist WRAP members; • Adapt and refine the organization and process used to involve and encourage collaboration among organizations with interests in these air quality issues; and • Using available resources, efficiently develop data, information, and strategies needed by WRAP members to reduce air pollution and its impacts.

8. 2009-12 Activities • Track, report, and conduct needed analyses of progress for regional haze; • Determine regional contributions to Ozone and PM health and welfare standards’ nonattainment issues at various scales; • Understanding and analyzing the nature and causes of mercury and nitrogen deposition, and critical loads in the West; • Assess air quality changes from emissions management strategies and programs; and • In concert with emerging efforts to manage and adapt to climate change, fully integrate data for both energy supply and use as well as greenhouse gas emissions into air quality analyses.

9. Perspective on Partnership The WRAP partners have facilitated many successful dialogues on air quality issues important to Western tribes. Shared experiences and exchange of cultural values have enhanced air quality efforts by states and tribes to develop regulatory programs and strategies that benefit the environment and solve problems for both tribes and states. Needed Technical Studies Transport/characterization/impacts of PM in rural communities PM health impacts and risk analysis Dust emissions and air quality modeling Climate change – emissions inventories Oil and gas development and production emissions Atmospheric deposition – mercury and sulfur/nitrogen PSD consumption – systematic tracking and management Tribal emissions and air quality data Ozone – especially rural areas Preparing the Strategic Plan – Tribal Caucus findings

10. Regional Haze Implementation Support: Provide emissions and modeling analyses support for SIP Reasonable Progress Goals Facilitate issue resolution from EPA review of submitted SIPs Provide venues for and facilitate interstate communications and meetings as needed Provide technical support for qualified users of TSS and the data nodes (EDMS, VIEWS, FETS, CoHA, RMC, etc.) Analyses for other air program management priorities: Identify gaps in technical understanding of pollutant transport in the west - as needed to meet planning and regulatory requirements Provide venues for and facilitate peer-to-peer and stakeholder communications and meetings to prioritize issues and develop regional approaches Within resource availability, develop or adapt existing WRAP tools to raise level of understanding for application to planning and regulatory requirements Undertake joint project with other organizations to assess opportunities for improving efficiencies of (state, tribal) staff and avoiding duplicative efforts Preparing the Strategic Plan – State Caucus priorities

11. Air Program Support (data resources, peer-to-peer contact + training) Regional Haze Implementation Regional Air Quality Analysis (Technical & Planning/Policy) PM NAAQS (primary & secondary) Ozone NAAQS (primary & secondary) Mercury & Nitrogen Deposition/Critical Loads Climate Change, GHG Emissions, & Energy Supply WRAP support to members: Now + Future

12. Regional Haze Planning • NO CAIR • WRAP region • Effect on §309 SO2 Milestone Program (WY, UT, NM, AZ) • BART review and permit writing ongoing • Reasonable Progress analysis to set 2018 RP goals • Regional technical work to analyze regional visibility improvement from BART on hold • Support for haze planners ongoing • Emissions analysis and tracking • IMPROVE data now posted through 2006 • BART and haze planning coordination

13. Revisions to the Primary Ozone Standard [Source: EPA] • EPA has concluded the 1997 primary standard is not adequate to protect public health with an adequate margin of safety • Level of the 8-hour primary ozone standard is now 0.075 ppm • More than 1700 new scientific studies available in this review indicate strong evidence of adverse health impacts of ozone at the level of the 1997 standard and below • Clinical studies show evidence of adverse respiratory responses in healthy adults at a level of 0.080 ppm and possibly lower • Large numbers of new epidemiological studies, including new multi-city studies, strengthen EPA’s confidence in the links between ozone exposure and health effects observed in the last review, including emergency department visits and hospitalizations for respiratory causes • Studies now link ozone exposure to other important health effects, including mortality, increased asthma medication use, school absenteeism, and cardiac-related effects • Studies of people with asthma indicate they experience larger and more serious responses to ozone that last longer than responses in healthy individuals • EPA also specified the level of the standards to the nearest thousandth of a ppm, eliminating the need for rounding when comparing measured ambient levels to the new standard

14. Ozone Health Impacts: “ Pyramid of Effects” Susceptible and vulnerable groups include: – People with lung disease such as asthma – Children – Older adults – People who are more likely to be exposed, such as outdoor workers • Ozone and the Environment • Ground-level ozone is absorbed by the leaves • of plants, where it can: • Interfere with the ability of sensitive plants to produce and store food • This can lead to reduced growth, biomass production and/or yields • Make sensitive plants more susceptible to certain diseases, insects, harsh weather, other pollutants, and competition • Reduce or change the diversity of plant species • This can lead to damage to ecosystems dependent on those species • Visibly injure the leaves of plants, affecting the appearance of vegetation in national parks, recreation areas and cities

15. Revisions to the Secondary Ozone Standard [Source: EPA] • EPA has concluded the 1997 secondary standard is not adequate to protect public welfare • Strengthened the level of the 8-hour secondary ozone standard to 0.075 parts per million • Ozone effects on sensitive species include reduced biomass, foliar injury, loss of vigor, and susceptibility to disease. This could lead to loss of plant diversity and change the types of plants in ecosystems • Current ambient concentrations in many areas of U.S., including areas that attain the 1997 standard, are sufficient to cause adverse impacts • Important new scientific information has been developed since 1997, however many significant uncertainties remain • While EPA agrees with CASAC that cumulative, seasonal exposures are the most biologically relevant, the remaining uncertainties over how to best protect vegetation led the Administrator to conclude the secondary standard should be set equal to the primary

16. Monitoring Considerations Related to March 2008 Revisions to the Ozone Standards • EPA did not propose any specific changes to existing monitoring requirements, but invited comment on a number of issues. EPA will consider the following issues in a proposed monitoring rule in June 2008, and a final rule in approximately March 2009 • Requirements in urban areas, including whether to require ozone monitors in smaller Metropolitan Statistical Areas (cities) of between 50,000 and 350,000 population that do not currently have monitors • Requirements in rural areas to address the large spatial gaps that exist in the current network, including whether to require a minimum number of rural monitors per state • Such monitors would likely be located in areas with ozone sensitive plant species and where resulting vegetation damage would adversely affect land usage, with special focus on public lands that are protected areas of national/state/tribal interest (e.g., National parks, wilderness areas) • The length of the required ozone monitoring season, including whether the season should be lengthened in some areas to capture relevant measurements in calculating the revised NAAQS and the Air Quality Index

17. Nitrogen Deposition [Source: Malm, et.al.] • Deposition of nitrogen compounds can cause a number of deleterious effects, including changes in ecosystem function and surface water chemistry. • The national deposition monitoring networks, measuring concentrations of certain molecular species in both their wet and dry forms, have been successful in furthering our understanding of ambient aerosols and selected trace gases across the United States; however, they also have important shortcomings. • Key shortcomings of the current monitoring systems are: • Their temporal resolution (one-week integrated samples), • The accuracy of the split between ambient nitric acid and particulate nitrate, that NH3 is not measured, and • That organic nitrogen (ON) is not routinely measured, either as total or speciated ON, in any of its wet, gaseous, or particulate forms. • Organic nitrogen has been shown to contribute significantly to the total nitrogen deposition budget.

18. Mean nitrate values for 2000 -2004 Mean nitrate values for 2000 -2004 Mean sulfate values for 2000 -2004 Mean sulfate values for 2000 -2004 • Urban nitrate concentrations are higher than regional background (top-left compared to top-right), especially in the western U.S. • Urban sulfate concentrations are comparable to regional background concentrations (bottom)

19. Why a Midwest Nitrate Bulge? • Similarity of the particulate nitrate distribution (top) to the ammonia emissions distribution (middle) and the dissimilarity to the NOx emissions distribution (bottom) suggests that ammonia emissions are largely responsible • Thermodynamic equilibrium modeling for 10 Midwest locations confirms the sensitivity of particulate nitrate concentrations to ammonia emissions at 9 sites (Blanchard & Tanenbaum, 2005)

20. NAAQS Reviews • PM • CASAC Panel 2007-10 • Integration w/ related emissions & measurements? • NO2 • Deposition secondary standard • SO2

21. PM-NO2-SO2 NAAQS Review [Source: Malm] • Secondary standards can be based on an integrated index different from the parameters used for the primary standard • PM standard can be justified (in part) on the basis of visibility • Need new valuation work • Literature review of non economic value/perception • Discussion of blue sky and clouds as part of an urban visual setting • Need for imaging urban settings for valuation studies

22. Protecting Visibility through Secondary NAAQS • Visual air quality and stress • Decreased visual air quality has been demonstrated to be linked to heightened levels of anxiety, tension, anger, fatigue, depression, and feelings of helplessness • As visual air quality decreases emergency calls for psychiatric disturbances increase. • Visual air quality and behavior • Decreased visual air quality results in less outdoor activity • Increased hostility and aggression followed by withdrawal

23. Tabular summary WHAT’S MISSING: ORGANIC NITROGEN

24. Possible Deposition index • Monitor a suite of reactive nitrogen species the sum of which is “Total Chemically Reactive Nitrogen” defined as the sum of all oxidized species except N2O and the sum of ammonia and ammonium. • Total Chemically Reactive Nitrogen = NOy + NHx • Species Method NOy (total oxidized nitrogen) Reduction to NO followed by chemiluminescence NO3- (particulate nitrate) Denuder/filter sampling followed by ion chromatography HNO3 (nitric acid vapor) Filter/denuder and followed by ion chromatography. NH3 (ammonia) Filter/denuder followed by colorimetry or ion chromatography NH4+ (ammonium) Denuder/filter followed by colorimetry or ion chromatography

25. Future WRAP Regional Emissions & Modeling Analysis • Develop "airsheds“ for analysis • Analogous to AQ control regions – many states use a version of these • Fits with criteria for designating attainment/nonattainment areas • Could follow natural topographic features and prevailing wind patterns, although regulatory jurisdictions sometimes come into play where practical or logical for implementing controls. • Advantage of the airshed approach is that control strategies and forecasting decisions are backed by the "science" of plume movements and natural drainage. • Could be used to specifically address transport mitigation programs • Helps with evolving monitoring information over time and resulting interstate initiatives as transport is identified • Linkage to plume tracking from fires and dust storms using satellite data • Need more monitoring at the right spatial, temporal, and chemical composition detail to explain transport, separate from attainment/nonattainment issues • Resources • Gather input on these and other ideas at this workshop

26. Agenda Review Questions & Break