NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center A New Focus on Products and Services

1. NOAA Space Weather Prediction CenterA New Focus on Products and Services “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Prediction Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP Space Weather Workshop Boulder, CO April 30, 2008

2. Overview • Future is now for Space Weather • Meeting space weather service needs of a rapidly growing user base • SWPC positioning itself in the new era • Reorganized with a focus on customers, products, service delivery and R2O • Partnerships – need to leverage community assets • Accelerated pace of technology and science advances – need to facilitate R2O • Challenges • Uncertain budget • Developing infrastructure for R2O – “to accelerate R2O – must support O2R” • Space-based Observations • IT facility issues

3. Commercial Space Transportation Airline Polar Flights Microchip technology Precision Guided Munitions Cell phones Atomic Clock Satellite Operations Carbon Dating experiments GPS Navigation Ozone Measurements Aircraft Radiation Hazard Commercial TV Relays Communications Satellite Orientation Spacecraft Charging Satellite Reconnaissance & Remote Sensing Instrument Damage Geophysical Exploration. Pipeline Operations Anti-Submarine Detection Satellite Power Arrays Power Distribution Long-Range Telephone Systems Radiation Hazards to Astronauts Interplanetary Satellite experiments VLF Navigation Systems (OMEGA, LORAN) Over the Horizon Radar Solar-Terres. Research & Applic. Satellites Research & Operations Requirements Satellite Orbit Prediction Solar Balloon & Rocket experiments Ionospheric Rocket experiments Short-wave Radio Propagation Growth of Space Weather Users and Customers NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center 2008 EACH MONTH AT SWPC 400,000 Unique Users 50,000,000 File Transfers 120 Countries Represented by Users 67,500,000 Web Hits 0.3 TBytes of Data Downloaded Sunspot Cycles

4. Increasing Space Weather Customers and Requirements • Plot does not include POES, GOES, and ACE real time solar wind data sets, (14 million file transfers per month) • Over 1,000 event-driven products issued during solar “minimum” years 2006 & 2007 • Over 6500 unique users subscribe to SWPC’s web product services • ~150 new users each month

5. Growing Space Weather Needs • GPS users represent the fastest growing customer base for SWPC • Space weather is the largest error source for GPS • GPS used in drilling, surveying, agriculture, aviation, DoD operations, much more • Fast-changing needs in aviation community • 13 airlines will fly ~8,000 polar flights in 2008 • Transportation System (NextGen) - Wide-ranging transformation of national air transportation system will rely on satellite-based technology

6. Space Weather Prediction Center Reorganization • Align organizational structure with new fundamental emphasis on operations • Transfer from OAR to NWS – January 2005 • Bottoms-up Reorganization Activities Commence – August 2006 • Name Change to Space Weather Prediction Center – July 2007 • Reorganization Officially Effected – February 2008 Director Executive Officer Secretary Strategic Direction Team • Address the rapid changes in our user base • Permit efficient and timely R2O Branch Branch Space Weather Services Administrative and Technical Support Office Section Forecast Office Section Development and Transition Research and Customer Requirements

7. The Future of Space WeatherPartnerships: Research and R2O “A US multi-agency partnership to enable, support, and perform the research and development for next generation space science and space weather models”

8. Leverage Community Assets • Strategy: Leverage External Research Activities • Coordination: National Space Weather Program Safeguarding Our Nation’s Advanced Technologies

9. Customer-Centered and Partner-focused • Private sector • - Work with the private sector to augment or • enhance NCEP products and services. • - Leverage private sector technology innovations. • Federal partners, Academic partners and the • Research Community • - Assess coordinate and share resources and capabilities. • - Pursue focused research and modeling activities. • Utilize other partner observations. • International partners • - Share data, observations and expertise. • - Share research results and actively participate in • international research programs. • Accelerate R2O transition through “Test Bed” approach

10. Future Space Weather Prediction Models: GFS/WAM/IDEA Geospace Model (~10 yrs?) NWP in coupled geospace? DA in IDEA domain? Coupling with heliosphere? Geospace IDEA (~5 yrs.) Ionospheric NWP Satellite drag prediction Coupling with geospace? IDEA WAM (~3 yrs.) Extend up to 600km Improved lower-atmospheric DA Satellite drag products? WAM GFS-2008 GFS-2008 Improved thermodynamics etc. TTO 2008 (3 FTE) D  TTO ~2–3 yrs.

11. Solar Radiation Solar Wind IMF WAM GIP Open GGCM OASIS RCM Geospace Assimilative System to fuel OASIS Whole Atmosphere Model Geospace Global Circulation Model Global Ionosphere Plasmasphere Rice Convection Model

12. Challenges • Budget • Sustain budget profile for SWPC • Developing infrastructure for research-to-operations (R2O) – “to accelerate R2O – must support O2R” • Document NCEP’s forecast systems to facilitate use by larger research community as part of “O2R” process • Collaborate on multi-model ensembles, and leverage developments from partners • Engage science community on SWPC’s customer needs Observations • Secure operational L1 solar wind monitor and coronagraph • Secure backup capability for GOES-10 XRS data stream

13. Challenges SWPC is designated as a National Critical System (NCS), and therefore has stringent security and reliability requirements - Complete C&A compliance measures for NCS Continuity of Operations requirements dictate the need for a backup system - NOAA and USAF sites are being considered 13

14. Space Weather Enterprise Forum This forum will focus on the costs of space weather impacts and the benefits of improved space weather services with an emphasis on the anticipated needs of the user community in 2010-2020. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/swef/index.html

15. Summary • SWPC is becoming fully integrated within NWS/NCEP service structure • Pursuing requirements of a rapidly expanding user base • Strengthening operational infrastructure • Working towards the research to operations transitions needed to improve products and services in SWPC • Will continue to work with the user and research community to advance the SWPC • Working the budget issue for FY09 - 15

16. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists 5 NCEP Centers NESDIS research and satellite services OAR Air Resources Laboratory Revised Construction Schedule

17. Appendix

18. New SWPC Product in 2008 D-region Absorption over Poles Meeting the Needs of the Aviation Community • Existing product includes no measure of absorption over the Poles • New product will define absorption at low and high latitudes

19. Future SWx Prediction Models: USTEC to GEOTEC Europe (EUREF) IHY-Africa GPS occultations