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Modeling Compliance with the 8-Hour Standard

Modeling Compliance with the 8-Hour Standard. Jay Olaguer Houston Advanced Research Center 10/06/04. Texas Environmental Research Consortium. TERC is a consortium of stakeholders: Local government agencies (City of Houston, HGB and DFW counties) Environmentalists (ED, GHASP)

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Modeling Compliance with the 8-Hour Standard

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  1. Modeling Compliance with the 8-Hour Standard Jay Olaguer Houston Advanced Research Center 10/06/04

  2. Texas Environmental Research Consortium • TERC is a consortium of stakeholders: • Local government agencies (City of Houston, HGB and DFW counties) • Environmentalists (ED, GHASP) • Business and Industry (GHP, Dallas C of C). • TERC’s mission: • Fund research to improve ozone science and air modeling in East Texas • $5 million from TX Legislature for 2004-2005 • Collaboration with TCEQ in identifying research

  3. Basic Problem • How to model attainment of 8-hr standard? • Transport yields background up to 80 ppb • Current AQ models used for SIPs are barely sufficient for 1-hr, let alone 8-hr • Selection of appropriate episode(s) not straightforward (Full ozone season?) • Need much more observational data to evaluate model performance

  4. Meteorology 1-hr Standard8-hr Standard Boundary Layer Free Troposphere (0-3 km) (3-16 km) Horizontal Flow Vertical Motion

  5. Transport 1-hr Standard8-hr Standard Daytime Night-time Urban-to-Regional Regional-to-Continental

  6. Chemistry 1-hr Standard8-hr Standard Highly Reactive Moderately Reactive VOCs (e.g., ethylene) VOCs (e.g., n-butane) Rapid Ozone Long-Lived Products Formation (e.g., PAN, acetone)

  7. 8-Hr Conceptual Model • Explain high background ozone in E. TX • Explain local 8-hour exceedances in: HGBPA, DFW, NE TX EAC areas. • Information sources: surface monitors, previous conceptual models, trajectory analyses, forecast modeling (NCAR) • Statistical and physical model analysis to get a mental picture of causal mechanism

  8. Transport from Out-of-State • Examine transport impact of out-of-state sources on E. Texas regions • Apportion source region/type contributions for various meteorological episodes: • Aug 1999 DFW episode • Sep 1999 Austin/San Antonio episode • Aug/Sep 2000 HGB episode • Sensitivity to height of air column in model

  9. Best Practice for Modeling 8-Hr Ozone in Context of TexAQS II • Real-time trajectory and grid modeling for forecasting/adaptive observation planning • Testing of modeling innovations: • Observational data assimilation • Expanded chemical mechanism • Source attribution methods • Development of regional model for 8-hour SIP applications

  10. Summer 2005 Tetroon Campaign • Constant altitude balloons to track air flow • Tower and/or chase aircraft chemical measurements (ozone, VOCs, NOy) • Research Focus: • Nocturnal meteorology and transport • Nocturnal chemistry • Export of pollution from Houston to E. Texas

  11. Summary • Meteorology • Conceptual model development • Testing model innovations during TexAQS II • Transport • Regional modeling and source apportionment • Tetroon campaign to track regional air flow • Chemistry • Chemical measurements on tower/aircraft • Expanded model chemical mechanism

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