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2009 Summer Outlook and Sable Island Offshore Energy Project Planned Outage

2009 Summer Outlook and Sable Island Offshore Energy Project Planned Outage. RC Meeting July 21, 2009 Michael Taniwha Director of Operations. Overview. Summer 2008 Review Major Transmission Projects 2009 Summer Action Plan 2009 Summer Operable Capacity Analysis

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2009 Summer Outlook and Sable Island Offshore Energy Project Planned Outage

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  1. 2009 Summer Outlook and Sable Island Offshore Energy Project Planned Outage RC Meeting July 21, 2009 Michael Taniwha Director of Operations

  2. Overview Summer 2008 Review Major Transmission Projects 2009 Summer Action Plan 2009 Summer Operable Capacity Analysis Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) Planned Outage

  3. Summer 2008 Review • Last summer’s temperatures generally cooler • Last summer’s peak 26,111 MW on June 10, 2008 • Previous all time peak load was 28,130 MW on August 2, 2006 • No OP4 actions required in the summer of 2008

  4. Major Transmission Projects • Middletown - Norwalk 345 kV loop • Beseck – East Devon • East Devon – Singer • Singer – Norwalk • New 345/115 kV autos at Norwalk, Singer & East Devon • 1385 (Northport - Norwalk Cables) • 3163 Stoughton - K Street cable (3rd Boston cable) • Short-term Lower SEMA project upgrades • Carver substation reconfiguration • 2nd 345/115 kV auto transformer • Looping 355 Pilgrim – Bridgewater 345 kV line into Carver

  5. 2009 Summer Capacity Action Plan • Summer Capacity Outlook Communications • Transmission Owners (TOs) • Master/Local Control Center (M/LCC) Heads • OP4 Contacts • Utilities, State Regulators, State Emergency Mgmt, FERC & NERC • NPCC/NERC • System Readiness • Verified with Local Control Centers (LCCs) Critical Transmission Inspection/Maintenance Being Performed by Transmission Owners • Review Long-Term Outage Schedule • Review/Monitor Generation Maintenance Schedules • Coordinating with regional gas transmission companies • Coordinating with NBSO on SOEP planned outage

  6. 2009 Summer Capacity Action Plan (cont.) • Voltage Reduction Test • Completed April 28th • Review of Operating Procedures (OPs) & Transmission Operating Guides (TOGs) • ISO-NE Emergency Operating Procedures: OP4, OP6, OP7, OP21 & M/LCC2 • Area Transmission Operating Guides • Emergency Operations Training • ISO & Local Control Center Operators • Generator & Demand Resource Operators

  7. ISO-NE Daily System Peak Load

  8. What is this Summer Looking Like? • Summer 2009 Peak Load Exposure Forecast • Summer 50/50 peak load forecast 27,369 MW • Summer 90/10 peak load forecast 29,274 MW • Forecast includes 2009 adjustment for other passive demand resources (ODRs) ~ 500 MW. • Negative operable capacity margins are projected for all peak load exposure weeks during the summer months of July and August at 90/10 load levels • June 2009 average temperature third coolest in 50 years • June peak load of 18,534 MW on June 26th • Lowest June peak load in 13 years

  9. Summer 2009 Operable Capacity Analysis

  10. Possible Relief Actions Under OP4 Note: OP-4 Actions based on a 28,048 MW system load * Total Demand Response MW, including voluntary price response = 2,100 MW (voluntary price response = 81 MW)

  11. Summer 2009 Operable Capacity Analysis 50/50 Forecast (Reference)

  12. Summer 2009 Operable Capacity Analysis 90/10 Forecast (Extreme)

  13. Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) Planned Outage

  14. Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) Planned Outage • SOEP commenced production in December 1999 • Regulatory & safety permits require 10 year re-inspection • Maritimes & Northeast (M&N) Pipeline posted publically on April 21st information on the SOEP outage in August • Start date is early August 2009 • SOEP outage is scheduled for approximately 20 day duration

  15. Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) Planned Outage (cont’d) • M&N Pipeline is encouraging its customers to confirm alternate gas supply arrangements from the other three supply points available on the M&N system • Corridor Resource Supply – via McCully Pipeline interconnect • Portland Natural Gas Transmission System – direct interconnect • Canaport LNG supply – via Brunswick Pipeline interconnect • Repsol (Canaport Owner/Operator) has confirmed supplemental gas sales to regional gas markets (power generators) during the SOEP outage • ISO is seeing gas nominations coming from the Brunswick Pipeline into the M&N system (see slide 17)

  16. Sable Offshore Energy Project (SOEP) Planned Outage (cont’d) • On June 27, 2009, the LNG tanker Bilbao Knutsen delivered the first (cool-down) cargo of LNG to the Canaport LNG terminal in Saint John, New Brunswick • Canaport flaring gas from cool down LNG ‘boil off’ • 2nd LNG tanker delivery scheduled for July 20th

  17. M&N Pipeline System Map

  18. SOEP Outages – not the first time • M&N Pipeline (and SOEP) scheduled major planned outages last summer, to tie-in the M&N Phase IV Upgrades • June 2, 2008 – June 7, 2008 • August 14, 2008 – August 20, 2008 • Over the last two years, SOEP has experienced numerous planned and unplanned outages, with some outages over multiple days

  19. Planning Actions by ISO-NE ISO-NE has been in close communication with the regional interstate pipeline operators regarding the SOEP outage ISO-NE has had discussions with the SOEP operator, ExxonMobil, regarding the planned outage and the possibility of moving the SOEP outage ISO-NE has been in contact with Repsol, the operator of the Canaport LNG facility, to confirm the commercialization date of the new LNG import and storage terminal ISO-NE has been in close communication with NBSO regarding the SOEP outage and to ensure maximum NB-NE tie line availability

  20. Impact of SOEP Outage • Based on this summer’s Operable Capacity Analysis, the impact from the temporary loss of all gas-only generation supplied from the M&N Pipeline is manageable from a system-wide New England perspective

  21. Impact of SOEP Outage (cont.) • Based on this summer’s Generation Requirements for Transmission (GRT) analysis, it is likely that the impact from the temporary loss of all gas-only generation supplied from the M&N Pipeline is also manageable, from a Maine import perspective • The GRT analysis does not address localized concerns that may arise due to on-going reliability issues in Maine • Failure of generation to perform at their Seasonal Claimed Capability (SCC) may lead to larger capacity deficiencies and additional operating concerns • OP4 actions would be required, possibly up to Action 12, under 90/10 peak load conditions to maintain both system and sub-area reliability

  22. Questions?

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