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Summary of TEPPC 2009 Annual Reports, Study Results Report and Update on 2029 Study

Summary of TEPPC 2009 Annual Reports, Study Results Report and Update on 2029 Study. TEPPC Meeting 24 March 2010 Salt Lake City, UT Steve Walton, TEPPC Facilitator. TEPPC Reports for 2009 . Annual Report TEPPC activities TAS and WG activities SPG activities

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Summary of TEPPC 2009 Annual Reports, Study Results Report and Update on 2029 Study

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  1. Summary of TEPPC 2009 Annual Reports, Study Results Reportand Update on 2029 Study TEPPC Meeting 24 March 2010 Salt Lake City, UT Steve Walton, TEPPC Facilitator

  2. TEPPC Reports for 2009 • Annual Report • TEPPC activities • TAS and WG activities • SPG activities • RTEP process, i.e., response to FOA • Study Program Results Report • 2012 studies • 2019 studies • Historical Analysis Report • 2008 and 2009 path data • Actual flows, schedules and ATC

  3. 2009 Annual Report • TEPPC activities • Long Term Planning Seminar • DOE Congestion Workshop • FERC Order 890 Technical Conference • Response to ARRA of 2009 – The DOE FOA • TAS and WG Activity Summaries • Activity Reports provided by the SPGs • The RTEP Process • Elements of the RTEP – Schedule, timing and protocol revision • 10-year Plan Process – Bottom-up • 20-year Plan Process

  4. 2009 Study Results Report • Conclusions – placed at the front of the report • Study Program Development Process • 2012 Studies • Hydro condition sensitivity • Natural gas price sensitivity • 400 MW pumped Hydro at Garrison MW • 2019 Studies • Northwest Wind Cases • Southwest Resource Shift Case • OTC/ESA Case

  5. 2012 Study Results

  6. Saturated Capacity Index – A New Analytic Technique • Applied to 2012 Sensitivity Studies • Definitions: • Saturated Hour = During an hour in which line flow is > 99% of line rating, the line is said to be saturated for that hour. • Saturated Capacity = The MWh transmitted by lines during saturated hours. • Saturated Capacity Index = The saturated capacity in a case compared to the saturated capacity in another case.

  7. Estimated Saturated Capacity Index (SCI) — 2012 Sensitivity Cases

  8. Saturation Index — Path Grouping No. E-W Coastal N to S Int So. E-W • Location of greatest stress shifts • Hydro conditions • High – Coastal & N-S interior • Low Hydro – No E-W and So E-W • High gas price • Med Hydro – No E-W & N-S Interior • High Hydro – Coastal & N-S Interior • Low Hydro – No E-W & N-S Interior

  9. Saturation Index — Path Grouping No. E-W Coastal N to S Int So. E-W • Location of greatest stress shifts • Hydro conditions • High – Coastal & N-S interior • Low Hydro – No E-W and So E-W • High gas price • Med Hydro – No E-W & N-S Interior • High Hydro – Coastal & N-S Interior • Low Hydro – No E-W & N-S Interior

  10. 2012 Pumped Hydro Storage — 400 MW at Garrison • Cases provided experience with using the models, but the results showed only modest use of storage. • Cases should be repeated using 2019 cases with more wind energy modeled in Montana to further investigate: • Is the better integration of the wind energy? • Is the cycling of coal plants limited?

  11. 2019 Study Results

  12. 2019 PC1 Basecase • Renewables at 15% to meet RPS • Includes the California 33% RPS target • Trial of the capital cost model • Production cost savings unlikely to cover full cost of transmission expansion • Generation capital cost savings will be the more important issue for justifying transmission expansion • Hours of saturated transmission on paths are much higher than historic flows • Recommend running a series of cases to investigate additions needed to bring make flows more like historic flows.

  13. 2019 Studies — Northwest Wind Cases • 3000 MW – Equal capacity blocks added w/o resource removal: • E. Oregon and Washington (Gen profile has 26% cf) • Montana and Wyoming (Gen profile has 42% cf) • Alberta and British Columbia (Gen profile has 34% cf) • Cases were rerun with equal energy blocks (6.3 TWh = 3000 MW at 26% cap factor) • Capital cost calculated assuming delivery in OR/WA • MT/WY case suggests that capital cost savings can justify transmission • AB/BC case indeterminate because added energy was absorbed within Alberta resulting in no exports

  14. 2019 Studies — Southwest Resource Shift • 3000 MW of solar removed in California (6.9 TWh, 26% cf) and replaced with: • 451 MW geothermal in Nevada (3.4 TWh, 86% cf) • 1120 MW wind in New Mexico (3.4 TWh, 35% cf) • Capital cost savings in generation suggests that generation capital cost savings could justify transmission needed for delivery • Further studies needed to look at best transmission for reliving congestion

  15. 2019 Studies — OTC / ESA • OTC units removed and replaced with combined cycle in the Victorville, CA area • Units at Lower Snake Dams replaced with combined cycle units in the same areas • Net production cost goes up $482 million – NW sees increased cost for gas at CT’s while CA sees some decreased cost from more efficient units • The annual cost of capital additions for replacement generation would be at least $1.3 billion (covers only units added to case) • Cost of measures needed for voltage support (CA) and dam removal (NW) would be substantial, but they outside of study this scope. • For the OTC case, the biggest challenge is technical, i.e., can South Coast Basin load be served from remote resources without local generation voltage support and local inertia for stable operation, which are outside the scope of this study.

  16. 2029 Study Update

  17. Update on the 2029 Studies • 2029 Scenarios: • 2029 PC1 - Long-term 33% Renewables Case • 2029 EC1-1 - Add transmission reinforcements to address identified congestion • 2029 EC1-2 - Add robust transmission overlay (765 kV)

  18. 2029 Incremental Renewables • Tom Carr led the SWG Resource Team’s effort to develop the type and location of incremental renewables needed to meet a 33% WECC-wide RPS in 2029 • Primary source of information – LBNL’s WREZ model extension • Model assumed continuation of ITC incentives for renewables • Result: many areas with near 90‐100% use of WREZ resource potential: CA, OR, WA, MT, WY.

  19. All 2029 Renewables (MW)

  20. 2029 Transmission • The SWG Transmission Team decided to use the congestion observed in the first Promod run of the 2029 resources on the 2019 transmission network to determine where to add incremental transmission/high voltage overlay • Results from the first Promod run: • 12,800 GWh of dump generation (~1,500 aMW dump every hour of the year) • Overloaded transmission lines with violated constraints • Significant cycling movement within operating range by base load coal plants • Conclusion was that without significant transmission additions case would not solve correctly

  21. 2029 Transmission – Incremental Build

  22. 2029 Transmission – High Voltage Overlay

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