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Fine Resolution Air Quality Forecasting Capability for limited-area domains

Fine Resolution Air Quality Forecasting Capability for limited-area domains – tested over Eastern Texas. Pius Lee, Hyuncheol Kim, Li Pan, Daniel Tong, and Tianfeng Chai Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA Shobha Kondragunta, Pubu Ciren, Qiang Zhao, Chuanyu Xu, and Xiaoyang Zhang

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Fine Resolution Air Quality Forecasting Capability for limited-area domains

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  1. Fine Resolution Air Quality Forecasting Capability for limited-area domains – tested over Eastern Texas Pius Lee, Hyuncheol Kim, Li Pan, Daniel Tong, and Tianfeng Chai Air Resources Laboratory, NOAA Shobha Kondragunta, Pubu Ciren, Qiang Zhao, Chuanyu Xu, and Xiaoyang Zhang National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service Jianping Huang, Sarah Lu, and Jeff McQueen National Centers for Environmental Predictions, NOAA Ivanka Stajner Office of Science and Technology

  2. Need for fine • resolution • Limited-area domain: • affordability • Study finer scale • processes NMMB grids: CONUS (green)*, nested Discover-AQ (red); in relation to 5x (blue) *1326*795=1.05 million horizontal grid cells @ 22 vertical layers Talk (Tues): Ivanka Stajner -- NAQFC Talk (Wed): Tianfeng Chai – Chemical D.A.

  3. Some applications of fine resolution AQ modeling • Next generation • operational AQ modeling – • consensus among many • operational centers (e.g. Lee • and Ngan 2011) • Better describes complex terrain • & land/sea interface processes • Helps • field campaign planning (e.g. • NAQFC for DISCOVER-AQ 2010) • Imperative to capture certain • pollution scenarios, e.g. wild • fire induced hazards -- smoke • (Hu et al. 2008 ) • Fire weather • forecasting a minimum of 24 • hours lead time (e.g. • NOAA 2012) Poster: Yongtao Hu 1.3 km fire weather on-demand nest Courtesy: mmb/emc/NCEP Poster: Christopher Loughner – DISCOVER-AQ Baltimore-Washington

  4. NMMB NMMB-Post & AqmPrdgen SMOKE MOBILE6 PREMAQ ICON BCON from CONUS results CMAQ GRiB products & graphics Verification Configuration of 4km AQ limited-area forecasting domain within CONUS • An on-demand event-based chemistry and air quality forecasting system • Limited-area domain within the Conterminous U.S.A (CONUS) • Parent domain: • 12 km horizontal spacing resolution CONUS • Child domain: • 4 km resolution limited-area domain • Emission generated at 4 km back- • aggregated to 12 km domain • Tested for Eastern TX Poster: Li Pan – Emission upgrades NAQFC 2012

  5. ~21x • Versatility of selecting a limited-area domain of interest • Limited-area domain forecasts are heavily influenced by boundary conditions and their derivation is critical • e.g. exo-domain wild fire emissions ~12x Agricultural burning prevails in the months of March and April in Mexico 5x Poster: Yongtao Hu – Wildfire Impact Talk (Wed): Hyuncheol Kim – Fire Emission HMS wildfire detections during Apr. 2010 Poster: Ka-wa Chan – Concept model

  6. Vertical coupling between NMMB and CMAQ: Layer correspondence • Lowest: one to one lowest 5 layers • PBL: Next 6 CMAQ levels corresponds to 12 NAM levels up to about 1350 m AGL, • Free Troposphere: Next 7 CMAQ levels corresponds to 21 NAM levels to 5000 m AGL, NMMB Layer 61 60 15 layers 59 200hPa n • Tropopause: Next 4 CMAQ levels corresponds to 8 NAM levels embedding the transition @ 200 hPa • The remaining CMAQ full-interface level caps the model at 100 hPa. It corresponds to 3 NAM levels. PD 2 1

  7. Obtain CO concentration at • lateral boundaries for 5x from • predicted PM concentration e.g. PM/CO ratio: Forest: 0.13±0.05 Savanna: 0.08±0.03 Grass: 0.07±0.03 (Vicente et al. 2011;Janhäll et al. 2010) HYSPLIT CMAQ • Obtain NOx, VOC, NH3, SO2 • Concentrations scaled from CO • using EPA SPECIATE data 2010 CMAQ 5x • HMS-Bluesky-SMOKE for • wild fire emissions within 5x • 5x provides IC and BC for HOU • Limited-area 4km domain

  8. Modeled O3 difference between 12km and 4km domains at 13UTC August 26, 2012 Surface Surface Surface At 4km resolution model simulates higher ozone concentrations aloft and resolves smaller features at all levels: interaction of emissions and meteorology at finer scales 900 m 900 m 900 m

  9. Comparison of verification results – O3 Finer descriptions helped 12-km (cut from 5X CONUS) 4-km Houston domain

  10. Comparison of verification results for pm Finer descriptions helped 12-km (cut from 5X CONUS) 4-km Houston domain

  11. Comparison of HOU domain-wide averaged surface concentrations Study other metrics?

  12. Statistical metrics for high resolution AQ model evaluation -- Need New paradigm ! Stats for Daily Maximum 8-hr O3 at All AQS Sites within 4km Domain The performance measures over the 4 km resolution may not be necessarily better than over the coarser (12 km) resolution; it may be even worse if it is evaluated using the traditional evaluation metrics based on paired obs-mod data Courtesy: Daiwen Kang, CMAS 2011

  13. Preparing the Air Quality Community for GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) Aerosol Products • Key instrument on GOES-R is the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI): • 16 bands with spatial resolution of 2 km (nadir) and 5 min refresh rate for CONUS • AOD with accuracy similar to MODIS (multi-channel aerosol retrieval) • Aerosol type information (smoke vs. dust) • Fire/hot spot characterization • Visible, IR, water vapor imagery http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/spb/aq/aqpg/ • GOES-R ABI Air Quality Proving Ground project successfully deployed a web-based dissemination of aerosol proxy data to air quality forecasters from different states in preparation for day one readiness of GOES-R products. • GOES-R Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), aerosol type, RGB image on the hour for every hour of the day are streamed via a website located on a STAR computer. • ABI aerosol proxy retrievals are generated using ABI radiances generated by Community Multiscale Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM). The 24-hr aerosol forecast fields from 00Z run of WRF-CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting-Community Multiscale Air Quality) model are provided as inputs to CRTM. Courtesy: S. Kondragunta Huff et al., The NOAA Air Quality Proving Ground: Preparing the Air Quality Community for Next Generation Products from The GOES-R Satellite, EM, accepted, 2012.

  14. 3. CRTM Run on NOAA 1. Hourly outputs of aerosol 2 min 50 min 2. Re - formatting STAR computer orbit006l and met fields from 48 - hour with 12GB memory and of CMAQ outputs nmmb - forecast run at to prepare for 16 CPUs. Code based on 12 - km resolution FORTRAN, IDL, and shell CRTM run (ftp.nsstc.org/outgoing/yes) scripts 6 hrs 4. GOES - R ABI Synthetic 36 min 5. ABI AOD 6. Simulated ABI Radiances algorithm run on aerosol products (6 bands: 0.47, 0.66, orbit006l for m 0.86, 1.36, 1.6, 2.25 m) daytime scenes 7. Post - processing of ABI aerosol products using 1 min 30 min IDL and ImageMagic to 8. ABI aerosol 9. Web display: generate display imagery http://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/spb/aq/aqpg/ imagery files 12km and 4 km results were input to CRTM – attempted for ABI imagery Flow Chart : Process for Generating Proxy ABI Aerosol Products Courtesy: S. Kondragunta and C. Xu, NESDIS STAR

  15. 12km and 4 km results were input to CRTM – attempted for ABI imagery Examples of Near Real-Time ABI Proxy Aerosol Products for July 30, 2011, 14:00 UTC: AOD (left), Aerosol Type (center), RGB (right). Courtesy: S. Kondragunta and C. Xu, NESDIS STAR

  16. ABI Proxy Aerosol Products for 12 km results RGB at 15:00 2012-08-13 RGB at 17:00 2012-08-13 RGB at 21:00 2012-08-13 RGB at 19:00 2012-08-13

  17. ABI Proxy Aerosol Products for 12 km results -- cont’d AOD at 15:00 2012-08-13 AOD at 17:00 2012-08-13 AOD at 21:00 2012-08-13 AOD at 19:00 2012-08-13

  18. Summary • 4km AQ forecasting system for a limited-area domain has been tested: • Houston domain was tested for multiple days • The fine resolution window over HOU showed more local • sfc O3 maxima and stronger concentration gradient • Inner-nest domain averaged time series showed mixed • results. The grid-to-obs paired statistics may not • be adequate • Multiple application of 4m limited-area domain QA forecasting: • Intensive measurement campaigns • Pre-launch calibration of retrieval algorithms. • Looking ahead: • CMAQ5.0 Options: lightning NOx, Windblown-dust • Explore metrics for 4km domain verification and evaluation Poster: Daniel Tong – Windblown dust emission module

  19. Acknowledgement: This work is partially supported through NASA Air Quality Applied Sciences Team (AQAST) Tiger Team project.

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