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Real Time High-Resolution NWP @ McGill University

Real Time High-Resolution NWP @ McGill University. J. Gyakum 1 , R. McTaggart-Cowan 1 , P. Sisson 2. 1 McGill University. 2 National Weather Service. Objectives. Implementation of a real time MC2 system Data collection for stat-istical analysis and case studies

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Real Time High-Resolution NWP @ McGill University

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  1. Real Time High-Resolution NWP @ McGill University J. Gyakum1, R. McTaggart-Cowan1, P. Sisson2 1 McGill University 2 National Weather Service

  2. Objectives • Implementation of a real time MC2 system • Data collection for stat-istical analysis and case studies • Investigate impacts of high-resolution modelling on QPF and near-surface winds

  3. Outline • Need for mesoscale modelling • Description of NWP system • Validation case study (27 September 2002) • Project timeline and ongoing upgrades

  4. High Resolution (3km) • Accurate topography • Improved wind fields and fluxes • Model terrain-induced confluence

  5. Mesoscale Orography High resolution (6 km) Degraded resolution (~100 km)

  6. Model Description • MC2 version 4.9.5 • Non-hydrostatic, semi-implicit time step, semi-Lagrangian advection • Full physics version 3.72 • Three one-way nest domains

  7. 36 km 12 km 3 km Nesting Strategy

  8. Computational Platform • NEC SX-6/8M10 super-computer maintained by RPN/CMC • 10x8 PE nodes • Theoretical peak performance 10x64 GFlop

  9. Performance Timeline Domain 1 (36km) Domain 2 (12km) Domain 3 (3km) 0000 UTC 0300 UTC 0600 UTC 0900 UTC CMC Regional Forecast McGill Real Time Mesoscale Cascade All runs completed by 0330 Eastern Standard Time

  10. Synoptic Mesoscale Production Suite Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales

  11. Synoptic Production Suite Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics dynamic tropopause potential temperature

  12. Synoptic Production Suite • dynamic tropopause  Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics isentropic potential vorticity

  13. Synoptic Production Suite • dynamic tropopause  • isentropic potential vorticity Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics coupling index dt - e(bl)

  14. Synoptic Production Suite • dynamic tropopause  • isentropic potential vorticity • coupling index Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics moisture transport

  15. Synoptic Production Suite • dynamic tropopause  • isentropic potential vorticity • coupling index • moisture transport Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics moisture flux divergence

  16. Synoptic Production Suite • dynamic tropopause  • isentropic potential vorticity • coupling index • moisture transport • moisture flux divergence Traditional upper-level forcings and QG dynamics Non-standard synoptic output available on 36 and 12 km domains (1 & 2)

  17. Mesoscale Production Suite Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales frontogenesis function and terms

  18. Mesoscale Production Suite • frontogenesis function Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales high-resolution convective and explicit precip-itation

  19. Mesoscale Production Suite • frontogenesis function • high resolution precipitation Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales high resolution vertical motion fields

  20. Mesoscale Production Suite • frontogenesis function • high resolution precipitation • high resolution vertical motion Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales cross-sectional plots of various thermodynamic variables

  21. Mesoscale Production Suite • frontogenesis function • high resolution precipitation • high resolution vertical motion • thermodynamic cross-sections Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales cross-sectional plots of frontal circulations

  22. Mesoscale Production Suite • frontogenesis function • high resolution precipitation • high resolution vertical motion • thermodynamic cross-sections • frontal circulations Visualization of processes and forcings occurring at small scales Mesoscale visualization tools available on 12 and 3 km domains (2 & 3)

  23. Case Study (2 May) GOES-East Water vapour 0000UTC 2 May

  24. Domain 2 (12 km) Precipitation Structure Radar Observations Model Rain Rate 0900 UTC 2 May 2002 (initialized 0000 1 May)

  25. Domain 2 (12 km) Precipitation Structure Radar Observations Model Rain Rate 1200 UTC 2 May 2002 (initialized 0000 1 May)

  26. March September March September 2002 2003 Project Timeline model implementation McGill-side storage structure analysis tool construction visualization design web interface construction gridded data transfers AWIPS implementation real time modelling completed in progress planned

  27. Case Study (27 Sept) GOES-East Water vapour (0000 UTC 27 Sept)

  28. Precipitation Domain 1 (36km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

  29. Precipitation Observed total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

  30. Precipitation Domain 2 (12km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

  31. Precipitation Domain 3 (3km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

  32. Precipitation Domain 3 (3km) total 24 hour rainfall ending 1200 UTC 28 Sept

  33. 500mb Height/Vorticity

  34. 325K Potential Vorticity

  35. Dynamic Tropopause McGill 24h forecast RUC analysis 00Z 28 Potential Temperature

  36. Project Timeline model implementation McGill-side storage structure analysis tool construction web interface construction visualization design real time modelling March June September December 2002 2003 completed in progress planned

  37. Case Study: (30 March 03)

  38. Dynamic Tropopause

  39. Dynamic Tropopause

  40. Coupling Index

  41. Radar Imagery 0814 UTC 31 March

  42. Precipitation Bands

  43. IBL Development YUL BTV Lake Champlain

  44. Summary • Implementation of real time mesoscale NWP is under way at McGill • High resolution (3 km) will enhance mesoscale flow and QPF forecasts for the St. Lawrence / NE states region

  45. Data Access • http://132.206.43.151:5080 • Grib files available to ftp servers upon request to: rmctc@zephyr.meteo.mcgill.ca

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