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Morning After The Night Before Is the future what it used to be?

Morning After The Night Before Is the future what it used to be?. Peter Burnhill Director, EDINA National Data Centre, University of Edinburgh, Scotland UK 16th/17th February 2009. The Brief: It’s a morning wake up call make very brief mention about what EDINA does …

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Morning After The Night Before Is the future what it used to be?

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  1. Morning After The Night BeforeIs the future what it used to be? Peter Burnhill Director, EDINA National Data Centre, University of Edinburgh, Scotland UK 16th/17th February 2009

  2. The Brief: It’s a morning wake up call • make very brief mention about what EDINA does … Then try to look into the future, do a bit of forecasting

  3. So, first that brief mention about what EDINA does …

  4. Role in scholarly communication … EDINA’s mission: to enhance productivity in research, learning and teaching In mid-90s, we planned a future, based on host to key A&I Databases: • Art Abstracts, Art Retro Index, PAIS, MLA, EconLit , Palmer’s Index to Times • Agdex, BIOSIS, CAB-Agriculture, CSA Environment • Ei Compendex, INSPEC • Had most of UK academic market for those • But knocked over in ‘Content Gold Rush’ as rights holders took back licences • Stampede for retail frontage with links to full text and other portals

  5. … and beyond We have been re-making our future with: • Suncat, UK national union catalogue of serials • National OpenURL Router, as registry of OpenURL resolvers in use • Access control: Privilege of Membership (rather than Payment of Money) • Investigated Shibboleth for JISC and Developed pilot for UK Access Management Federation for Education & Research • Technical (metadata) support for UK Fed & JISC Expert Group • Digital preservation • Access Host for CLOCKSS, with U of Edinburgh as Archive Node • Technical support for UK LOCKSS Alliance cooperative • Piloting an e-journals preservation registry, with ISSN-IC • User Generated Content & Open Access • The Depot, an Open Access deposit facility • Jorum for learning and teaching materials having already diversified with GeoSpatial and Multimedia, and supporting JISC with e-learning …

  6. Back to the boat … cruising and reflecting

  7. 2. Look into the future, do a bit of forecasting • new technology, like Cloud Computing, Web 2.0, etc • new opportunities, for libraries and publishers as well as ASA intermediaries • to improve lot of readers & writers in research and university world • Decided to try and build upon past views of the Future

  8. Away from the attention-grabbing now • Pondering not ‘whether or not’, but how to engage with the trendy-nest of Twitter, the world of Wiki and the thunderous roll of Blogs • on changes in research and teaching • on push and pull in the priced and unpriced economy • and what to say about possible implications of Cloud Computing

  9. Academy Technology Economy

  10. Meanwhile … …on the other side of the boat …

  11. … storm clouds on the starboard bow • liquidity crisis, credit crunch,banks and £ failing • Librarians worrying about foreign currency subscriptions,fixed budgets, higher payroll costendowments funds collapsing;is their forward purchase cash really safe?

  12. So, turn back to reflect Everything has changed, Everything is as it was Consider some past views of the future

  13. 1) a comprehensive electronic journal system • “Recent technological advances … developed largely independently of .. scientific and technical communication, will provide all the components” • word-processing equipment [and] personal computers for the preparation of articles .. will benefit publishers who can handle electronic output. … • telecommunications infrastructure is already available … • “Should a National Periodical Center come into existence, • [it] would be ideally situated to take advantage of any electronic output from publishers. • it could assist in the distribution functions now handled exclusively by publishers. Libraries and smaller publishers .. would benefit. • “This … is highly desirable and currently achievable … within next 20 years, • a majority of articles will be handled [in part this way] but not all articles will be … Much-read articles may still be distributed in paper form”

  14. 1) a comprehensive electronic journal system [1978] • “Recent technological advances … developed largely independently of … scientific and technical communication, will provide all the components” • word-processing equipment [and] personal computers for the preparation of articles .. will benefit publishers who can handle electronic output. … • telecommunications infrastructure is already available … • “Should a National Periodical Center come into existence, • [it] would be ideally situated to take advantage of any electronic output from publishers. • it could assist in the distribution functions now handled exclusively by publishers. Libraries and smaller publishers .. would benefit. • “This … is highly desirable and currently achievable … within next 20 years, • a majority of articles will be handled [in part this way] but not all articles will be … Much-read articles may still be distributed in paper form” • “some at NSF were disappointed because other studies forecast much quicker implementation” Donald King:study in 1978, published in 1981, reviewed in 1983 ‘Scientific journals in the United States: Their production, use and economics’, King, McDonald and Roderer, 1981 Out of Print.Review by C. Lee Jones, Bull. Med. Lib. Assoc. 71(4) 1983; available http://pubmedcentral.nih.gov)

  15. What were you doing between 1978 and 1983? • In 1978: I was re-training as postgrad at LSE to become a statistician • having started in research administration in mid-1970s • going to lectures on Catastrophe Theory (Rene Thom) [potential relevance?] • reading a lot of science fiction, especially Philip K Dick • In 1979, I was recruited as researcher at University of Edinburgh • to design and analyse surveys and help support a data archive • discovering EMAS, network-connected multi-access mainframe computing, that provided me with a rich community (‘social space’) • In 1983: secured appointment to establish University’s Data Library • started looking at how to do ‘library’ for ‘data’ • making use of that rich (Cloud?) computing environment within which to deliver both access to data and use of application software

  16. Faded snapshot of UK research environment, 1983 Mainframes still ruled • with Minis for well-funded research groups that wanted autonomy • UK Internet backbone, SERCnet, about to re-launch as JANET • TCP/IP had not yet displaced ‘Coloured Books’ as protocol for emerging Internet. • Email, file transfer and remote log-on to computers were routine for the few • Using ‘network’ of national and regional computing centres • Edinburgh (ERCC) & Manchester (UMRCC); EDINA & Mimas [BIDS at SWRCC] Slide from ‘server-side’ to ‘client side’ had begun [forced to become mechanics*] • PC desktop had just been launched in Europe by IBM • Microsoft had not taken over the Earth, nor was it thought evil • user interfaces were mainly command driven • Apple Macintosh not yet launched • Tim Berners-Lee had not yet joined CERN • Our GUIs were still in a guddle • the standards-based browser had not yet happened

  17. Longer view: 1970s to early 1990s; mid-1990s and on research computing in UK was evolving fast • early forms of ‘resource sharing’ • requiring and making best use of infrastructure • of telecoms, ‘mainframes’, software and then data • Statistical, databases, graphics; machine intelligence • Trans-national disciplinary sharing: IASSIST www.iassistdata.org • use of networks: different protocols for different tasks • email, remote log-on to use specialist software & hardware, transfer files (FTP) • Computer Board takes overall charge • Management of JANET, division of labour, sharing • In 1990s, it becomes Information Systems Committee (with Librarians) • later ‘the JISC’ • 1991/2, it organises funding of ISI deal and set-up of BIDS ISI, which helps library community begin move to electronic resources • Following Follet Report, funds eLib Programme, SuperJournals Project, early digitisation, MODELS Workshops, Digimap and much more • JISC establishes policy and funding for national data centres • BIDS (became Ingenta), EDINA and Mimas (then named MIDAS) Mid-1990s on, the early memory of the mass media • The emergence of the Web and ‘digital libraries’

  18. What about this Cloud Computing? “cloud computing is real” O’Reilly, Oct 2008 http://radar.oreilly.com/2008/10/web-20-and-cloud-computing.html

  19. Three Types of Cloud Computing • Platform as a Service. on-demand model (cf traditional on-premise model) = Force.com infrastructure + community of the 000’s of developers wo buy-in to Force.com • Utility computing. Out-sourcing. “Since early 2006, Amazon Web Services (AWS) has provided companies of all sizes with an infrastructure web services platform in the cloud.” • Cloud-based end-user applications (i) Google, Amazon, Facebook, twitter, flickr and virtually every other Web 2.0 application … reside in the cloud. • (ii) applications that used to be delivered locally on a PC • like spreadsheets, word processing, databases

  20. Emergence of ‘Cloud Computing’ [and ‘The Grid’ and ‘CyberInfrastructure’] is just functionality swinging back from client to server, in the light of advances in ICT, in an attempt to capture customers by re-creating ‘social space’ communities • Machine2Machine interfaces (APIs) allow interoperability between applications and data => more functionality. • Most software stacks running on cloud computing platforms are open source • Shift back to the Server Side • the Client Side presuming the ‘always on’ of the Internet * http://googlegazer.com/2008/08/03/ Alternative View: Old Mainframe Bess in Brand New Dress*

  21. 2) Pricing model for the future “… goal is to give people access to as much information as possible …. “… experience has been that as soon as usage is metered on a per-article basis, there is an inhibition on use or a concern about exceeding some budget allocation”

  22. 2) Pricing model [projected] for the future [2000] “Elsevier’s goal is to give people access to as much information as possible on a flat fee, unlimited use basis. “Elsevier’s experience has been that as soon as usage is metered on a per-article basis, there is an inhibition on use or a concern about exceeding some budget allocation” Karen Hunter, Elsevier, March 2000 PEAK 2000 Conference ‘Brings Librarians, Publishers, Economists Together’ • a path breaking conference at University of Michigan, looking at Traditional Subscription vs Bundled vs Per Article • Now published, 8 years later • as ‘Economics and usage of digital libraries: byting the bullet’, Jeffrey K. MacKie-Mason and Wendy Pradt Lougee (eds). Ann Arbor, Michigan: University of Michigan University Library, Scholarly Publishing Office 2008 • But could have been found & read during past 8 years on Internet/Web • anytime, anyplace at www.si.umich.edu/PEAK-2000

  23. This is really about the access model Based on privilege of membership, not payment of money • Library Card (Shibboleth) not Visa Card • End users respond to different price-effort models; if not money then effort. King & Tenopir • Similar being said about search and use behaviour of Internet (Duh!) Just another way of saying “free at the point of use” • walk-in libraries; the development of JISC and its services • ‘Digital library developments - a realistic future?’, Lyn Brindley & Derek Law, 1997, INSPEL, 31 (4) pp 195-203 • also available at http://en.scientificcommons.org/38270314

  24. A Simple Model of Scholarly Communication Author writes to be recognised by peer community & for institutional ‘research assessment exercise’ purposes … perhaps to be read article is the ‘information object of desire’ Key User (Reader) Verbs: Discover article of interestLocate service on those articlesRequest permission to use serviceAccess to service/article Reader

  25. Scholarly Communication(focus on article–length work published in journals) Author (article) Publisher article serial issue Licence Libraries and Publishers provide framework … the traditional ‘middleware’/infrastructure’ ... with Licence(s) for electronic (online) and print (on-shelf) £ Library (serial) Reader (article) P.Burnhill, EDINA/JISC, 2005

  26. Value-add £ services Scholarly Communication(Access to article–length work) Forma£ E conomy Author (article) Licensed Online Access Publisher article serial issue ILL/docdel Licence Institutional arrangement Library (serial) Reader (article)

  27. Cloud Activity: (1) An Ever-present Cloud of Peers Forma£ E conomy Author (article) Licensed Online Access peer review Publisher article serial issue learned society ILL/docdel Licence peer exchange Institutional arrangement Library Reader (article) ‘invisible college’

  28. Peer-to-Peer Communication Forma£ E conomy Author (article) peer review Publisher article serial issue learned society Licence peer exchange Institutional arrangement Library (serial) Reader (article) Informal: ‘invisible college’ and the ‘gift economy’

  29. Scholarly Communication Forma£ Economy Author (article) Licensed Online Access repositories peer review Publisher article serial issue learned society ILL/docdel Licence ‘Open Access’ peer exchange Institutional arrangement ££ E-prints free2web access Library (serial) repositories Reader (article) Informal: ‘invisible college’ and the ‘gift economy’

  30. repositories E-prints free2web access repositories Shared Challenge about Assured and Continuing Access Long term digital preservation Forma£ Economy Continuity of access Author (article) E-prints Licensed Online Access peer review Publisher article serial issue learned society ILL/docdel Licence peer exchange Institutional arrangement Library (serial) Reader (article) Informal: ‘invisible college’ and the ‘gift economy’

  31. Forecasting change for the traditional model? Author (article) Publisher article serial issue Licence* Library (serial) • * All is Licensed, whether for: • Open Access • Privileged of Membership Access • Payment of Cash Access Reader (article) P.Burnhill, EDINA/JISC, 2005

  32. (2) Peer2Peer Pressure Cloud Forma£ E conomy Author (article) Publisher article serial issue Licence learned society Institutional arrangement peer review Library (serial) peer exchange free2web access Reader (article) Informal: ‘invisible college’ and the ‘gift economy’

  33. (3) Cumulus Web Formation, will come to dominate Forma£ E conomy Author (article) Publisher article serial issue Licence Institutional arrangement Library (serial) Web 2.0/3.0: Semantic web mash-ups, Blogs. RSS feeds, Wikis free2web access Role of Institutional Repositories? peer exchange Reader (article) Informal: ‘invisible college’ and the ‘gift economy’

  34. Value-add £ services (4) The Challenge Forma£ E conomy Author (article) Publisher article serial issue Licence Publisher engagement Role of learned society? Library (serial) Web 2.0/3.0: Semantic web mash-ups, Blogs. RSS feeds, Wikis free2web access Role of Institutional Repositories? Institutional arrangement Open peer review? peer exchange Reader (article) Informal: ‘invisible college’ and the ‘gift economy’

  35. Stormy weather? • “Yes we can” Photo by Miles Story: http://torontoist.com/2008/06/phototo_storm_clouds.php

  36. New Dawn? • “You bet”

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