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The future of warfare and implications for civil military cooperation and humantarian space

This seminar explores the drivers shaping future wars and their implications for civil-military cooperation and humanitarian organizations. It examines the role of state failure, economic interdependence, and nuclear mutually assured destruction in shaping conflict management. The seminar also discusses the potential impact on the security and targeting of humanitarian workers in future conflicts.

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The future of warfare and implications for civil military cooperation and humantarian space

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  1. The future of warfare and implications for civil military cooperation and humantarian space Peter Viggo Jakobsen Royal Danish Defence College Ifs-71@fak.dk Danish Health Network Seminar, 11 December 2013

  2. The future = recent past • No new Iraqs or Afghanistans in the decade ahead

  3. The future = recent past • Anti-piracy, air campaigns, capacity building and use of special forces

  4. Drivers shaping future wars • US militarydominance • Nuclearmutualassureddestruction • Economicinterdependence  No great power wars

  5. Drivers shaping future wars • State failure  internalwars

  6. Future conflict management • Lower Western ambitions and fewer troops • BRICS military involvement will remain limited

  7. Implications for humanitarian space? + Humanitarian organisations lesslikely to beasked to work as part of integratedapproaches

  8. Implications for civil-military cooperation ÷ Inadequate military presence and security (DRC) the norm  Humanitarian organisations must negotiate security and access

  9. Implications for humanitarian space Humantarian workers less targeted?

  10. Implications for humanitarian space Targeting driven by need and ideology (anti-West) in existential conflicts likely to fall Targeting driven by greed likely to remain

  11. Implications for humanitarian space ÷ Greater risk of future Syrias and Rwandas

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