An Asian Welfare State Model? East and South Asian trajectories and approaches

1. An Asian Welfare State Model? East and South Asiantrajectories and approaches Gabriele Köhler Development economist Conference on Re-Thinking Asia II “Building New Welfare States:What Asia and Europe can learn from each other” Protestant Academy Tutzing 28-29 October 2013

2. I.) Premises of the discussion • Growing social inequalities in Asia and Europe • Despite commonly accepted fundamental values and ideals • Need for a progressive counter-narrative to • Tackle social inequalities • Make social justice available to all • Reduce income inequality and unequal opportunities • What role do comprehensive social security systems play • Hence: revisit the welfare state Source: FES invitation

3. II.) Preliminariessocio-economic trends

4. Vulnerability, poverty, informality

6. Asia-Pacific: people deprived Source: Asia-Pacific Regional MDG report 2011/12 (ESCAP/ADB/UNDP)

7. III. Welfare state trajectories

8. Welfare state definitions Two -three – four – five pillars • Education • Health access • Social security and social assistance • Active labour market policies • Family policy - welfare services

9. Pillar III: Social security Pillar I: Education Pillar II: Health

10. Welfare state politics • Nation building • Demographic factors • Economic progress • Productivity enhancement • Economic compensation – anti-poverty • Enhancing the domestic market • Political co-optation of subordinated classes by elites • Guilt or security concerns of the elites • Political stability • Political pressure from trade union movements or “grassroots” • Socio-cultural values and changing welfare provision arrangements • Norms • Peer competition • Copycatting • ….  Social policy as a process driven by power relations

11. The North: welfare state history • Germany Bismarckian reform: 1870s • US New Deal: 1930s • Japan interventionist welfare state: post WWII • UK: Keynes and Beveridge 1950s • Northern, Central Europe, Southern Europe welfare states: since 1950s

12. The South: welfare state history • Latin America in 1910-1920s • Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Costa Rica • Sri Lanka 1930s • South Asia – Constitutions of 1940s/1950s

13. The South: recent developments

14. IV. Four types of welfare states?

15. “Developmental welfare state I” Japan, Republic of Korea 1st phase, Taiwan PoC, Hong Kong SAR, Singapore, Malaysia • Social policy subordinate to economic development • Low government spending • Means tested, frequently conditional

16. “Developmental welfare state II” Korea: • New social contract after 1997 – democracy and response to Asian financial crisis • National Basic Livelihood Security Act 1999: • right to social assistance • universalised • guaranteed social minimum

17. Indonesia: recent social assistance programmes

18. Philippines: conditional cash transfer Selection Procedures of Target Households • To raise the average food expenditure of poor households • To increase school enrollmentand attendance • To improve preventive health care for pregnant women and young children • To reduce child labor • To encourage parents to invest in their children’s (and their own) human capital: health and nutrition, education, and participation in community activities Geographical Targeting Household Assessment (Enumeration) Selection of Poor Beneficiaries using Proxy Means Test Eligibility Check

19. “Developmental welfare state II” China: • Disconnect between urban and rural coverage • Selective social contract: Minimum Subsistence Guarantee • for urban populations in 1999 – response to market reforms • extended to rural populations in 2008 • does not cover migrants • Rural cooperative medical insurance scheme • universalised 2013

20. “Developmental welfare regime III” South Asia: Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Sri Lanka • Norms-based • Strong social inclusion angle • Mixture of means-tested and universal • Rights-based • Justiciable (notionally)

21. Social protection panorama South Asia Food-related measures Social Assistance Public works Affirmative action Human rights • National Rural Employment Guarantee (IND) • Employment Generation Programme for the Poorest (BGD) • Karnali Programme; Employment Guarantee Act (NPL) • Employment generation for rural unskilled workers (PAK) • Right to food/National Food Security Act (IND) • Mid-day meal (IND) • Right to education (all) • Right to health services (all) • Right to work (IND) • Right to information (IND, BGD, NPL) • Cooked school meals (IND) • Subsidized PDS (IND, NPL, BGD) • Subsidized grain prices • Universal old age pension (NPL) • Benazir Income Support Program (PAK) • Child benefit (NPL) • Unorganized sector health insurance (IND) • Secondary school stipend for girls (BGD) • Education for all (NPL) • Child grants for girls (IND) • Rural development and community based interventions (IND)

22. “Developmental welfare state IV” Dismantling: Europe 2005 onwards • Partial deterioration of entitlements • Means testing reintroduced • Conditionalities Examples: • Hartz IV in Germany • Child benefit in UK

23. V. Welfare expenditures

24. Total Social Protection Expenditure, as % of GDP

26. V. Propositions

27. Proposition I Each country has a trajectory of a developmental welfare state, but its characteristics differ as a function of power politics • Some are purely instrumental for nation building, growth, social appeasement • Others are progressive, as outcome of pressure from formal sector trade unions, informal sector or rural cooperatives, women's movements, social or faith-based CSOs

28. Proposition II Common perception: welfare states were invented in Europe • In fact, types of welfare states existed in the South before the North • Latin America had welfare state elements in the 1910s • Sri Lanka • “Zeitgeist” for welfare states: see post-war Europe, independent South Asia

29. PropositionIII Convergence in Asia: • 1st new wave: East Asia post 1998 economic crisis with new social policies • 2nd new wave: rights-based or notionally universal welfare states South Asia, South Korea, Southeast Asia and China, since early 2000s

30. PropositionIV Divergence South-North: • While “Asia” is moving towards nascent universalist developmental welfare states (at modest level of coverage and benefit levels) • Europe is moving towards a top-down welfare state (with remaining high coverage, but decreasing real entitlements, more conditionalities, and widespread public resentment)

31. Selected references Asian Development Bank, 2013. The Social Protection Index. Assessing Results for Asia and the Pacific. ADB Manila. Köhler, Gabriele and Deepta Chopra, eds., 2014. Development and Welfare Policy in South Asia. London Mkandawire, Thandhika, ed., 2005. Social policy in a development context. UNRISD. Geneva, London Pierson, Chris 2005. Late industrializers and the development of the welfare state, in Mkandawire, op. cit. Porsche-Ludwig, Markus 2013. Sozialpolitik in Asien. EinHandbuchderStaatenAsiens von A-Z. LitVerlag Berlin: W Hopf Ringen, Stein and KinglunNgok, 2013. What Kind of Welfare State is Emerging in China? UNRISD working paper 2013. www.unrisd.org Ringen, Stein, Huck-ju Kwon et al, 2011. The Korean State and Social policy. Oxford: OUP UNRISD, 2010. Combating Poverty and Inequality. Structural Change, Social Policy and Politics. Geneva Wehr, I., Leubolt, B. and Schaffar, W.2012. ‘Welfare regimes in the Global South: A short introduction’, Austrian Journal of Development Studies,WelfareRegimes in the Global South, 28(1), pp. 6-13 .

32. Contact informationGabriele Köhler Website: www.gabrielekoehler.net Email: office@gabrielekoehler.net Development and Welfare Policy in South Asia Edited by Gabriele Koehler and Deepta Chopra Routledge, February 2014 http://www.taylorandfrancis.com/catalogs/environment_and_sustainability/1/2/