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Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Stakeholder Consultation 23 rd February 2010

Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Stakeholder Consultation 23 rd February 2010. Aims of Session. To present outcomes of the Housing Need & Demand Assessment the requirement for affordable housing the requirement for market housing

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Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Stakeholder Consultation 23 rd February 2010

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  1. Angus Council Housing Need & Demand Assessment Stakeholder Consultation 23rd February 2010

  2. Aims of Session • To present outcomes of the Housing Need & Demand Assessment • the requirement for affordable housing • the requirement for market housing • To test findings against stakeholder knowledge and experience • To examine options to meet housing need

  3. Agenda • 10.15 – 10.30 Introduction/Welcome • 10.30 – 11.00 HNADA Study Findings • 11.00 – 11.15 Coffee • 11.15 – 12.00 Focus Groups: Key Strategic Policy Interventions & Meeting Housing Need and Demand • 12.00 – 12.15 Focus Group Feedback • 12.15 – 12.45 Next Steps • 12.45 Close of Session

  4. HNADA Objectives • To provide an assessment of future housing needs & demands for defined housing market areas. • To provide reliable information to support the LHS and Development Planning framework • To provide an assessment of type, size and tenure imbalances across the defined geographical area • To propose housing supply targets

  5. Housing Market Areas

  6. Housing Market Areas

  7. Assessing the Requirement for Affordable Housing

  8. Current Need X (a quota) Newly Arising Need Plus Minus Supply of Affordable Housing Equals Affordable Housing Need Calculation Net Shortfall/ Surplus

  9. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Current Need: Unsuitable Housing • Homeless or with insecure tenure: 175 • Concealed Households: 219 • Overcrowding: 779 • Special Needs: 3,194 • Poor Condition: 428 • Harassment: 127 • Current Need = 4,922

  10. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Total Current Need – Eliminate: • ‘In situ solutions’: • Provision of aids/adaptations/support = 680 • Net ‘Special Need’ figure = 2,514 • Net ‘Current Need’ figure = 4,242 • Then eliminate • % can meet need in private housing market • 52% households can meet market entry price • Net Current Need = 2,206

  11. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Newly Arising Need • New household formation: 752 • Eliminate new formers who can afford to meet market entry level prices (32%) • Existing households falling into need: 724 • Change in household circumstances including annual flow of homeless households • Newly Arising Estimate = 1,235

  12. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Affordable Housing Supply • Affordable housing relets: 1,075 • Committed new affordable supply: 50 • Turnover net of units taken out of management: 0 demolitions • Annual Supply Estimate = 1,125

  13. Affordable Housing Need Calculation • Interim Calculation Estimate • Current need = 4,922 • Net current need = 2,206 • Net annual current need = 221 (10 years) • Annual newly arising need = 1,235 • Annual total need = 1,456 • Annual affordable supply = 1,125 • Estimated shortfall = -331 • 10 year Est. shortfall = -3,310

  14. Affordable Housing Need Low Formation Scenario • Interim Calculation Estimate • Current need = 4,922 • Net current need = 2,206 • Net annual current need = 221 (10 years) • Annual newly arising need = 1,103 • Annual total need = 1,324 • Annual affordable supply = 1,125 • Estimated shortfall = -199 • 10 year Est. shortfall = -1,990

  15. Key Message Depending on the rate of household formation the annual shortfall in Angus ranges from 199 to 331 This results in a year 10 shortfall of between 1,990 and 3,310

  16. Disaggregated Calculation for Affordable Housing

  17. Projecting Future Need • Aggregated Housing Needs Analysis: • assumes the current profile of housing supply can meet the type of need identified • assumes need is met over 5 year period • Disaggregated Analysis: • determines if supply is ‘fit for purpose’ • detailed match of households to homes by size, area, property type and tenure • assesses if annual need is met by supply and extent to which backlog can be reduced • identifies length of time to address backlog • provides detailed profile of housing shortfall/ surplus to inform strategic planning

  18. Annual Newly Arising Need Annual Supply Backlog Housing Need Matched to Area Area Size Size Type Type Residual Supply Area Size Type Residual Backlog Projected Forward Over Time Until Eliminated

  19. Model Overview • Disaggregated Methodology • Model Assumptions • Backlog • Newly Arising Need • Supply • Model Outputs • Key Questions

  20. Base Assumptions • The model is based on the 3 components of the aggregated HNADA calculation • Backlog figure • Newly arising need figure • Supply figure • 10 year projections model • Data input by HMA, Size, Type • 4 Housing Market Areas • North HMA (Brechin & Montrose), • East HMA (Arbroath), • South HMA (Carnoustie, Monifieth & Sidlaws), • West HMA (Forfar, Kirriemuir, Angus Glens) • Affordability Outcomes applied by HMA

  21. Disaggregated Outcomes • Key Outcomes • Year 1: 2,407 households have unmet need • Year 5: 3,111 households have unmet need • Year 10: 4,132 households have unmet need • Headlines at Year 5 • Shortfall of affordable housing highest in South (-1,742) & West (-1,043) HMA’s • Shortfall of affordable housing greatest in 4 bedroom properties: (-1,174) (38%) • 74% of shortfall is in General Needs housing • 26% of shortfall is in Special Needs housing

  22. Unmet Need for Affordable Housing

  23. Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Area

  24. Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Type

  25. Unmet Need for Affordable Housing by Size

  26. Low Formation Scenario Disaggregated Outcomes • Key Outcomes • Year 1: 2,175 households have unmet need • Year 5: 2,413 households have unmet need • Year 10: 2,854 households have unmet need

  27. Key Message Taking account of size, type and area mismatches and depending on the rate of household formation the year 10 shortfall in Angus ranges from 2,854 to 4,132

  28. Assessing the Requirement for Market Housing

  29. Current Need for Market Housing Market Housing Requirement Methodology Total Need & Demand for Market Housing Newly Arising Need for Market Housing Affordability Analysis Annual Internal Demand Match Need & Demand to Supply Market Entry Level Upper End of Market Mid-Market Properties Annual Inward Migration Market Entry Level Upper End of Market Mid-Market Properties Market Supply

  30. Market Housing Requirement • Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2 • Relates to properties below £129,950 • Total Shortfall Year 1: -977 • Shortfall over 10 Years: -8,276

  31. Market Housing Requirement • Clear Surpluses in Housing Q3&4 • Relates to properties £193,750 and above • Total Surplus Year 1: +154 • Shortfall over 10 Years: +3,030

  32. Market Housing – Reduced Demand • Clear Shortfalls in Housing Q1&2 • Relates to properties below £129,950 • Total Shortfall Year 1: -831 • Shortfall over 10 Years: -6,812

  33. Market Housing - Reduced Demand • Clear Surpluses in Housing Q3&4 • Relates to properties £193,750 and above • Total Surplus Year 1: +206 • Shortfall over 10 Years: +3,554

  34. Key Message Total need = undersupply of lower quartile properties (-8,276) matched against oversupply of higher quartile properties (3,030) = -5,246 Total need (Reduced Demand) = undersupply of lower quartile properties (-6,812) matched against oversupply of higher quartile properties (3,554) = -3,258

  35. Key Message The Total Requirement for Market housing within Angus over the next 10 years will range from -3,258 to -5,246

  36. HNADA Recommendations

  37. Recommendations • The number of households in need does NOT equal number of units to be delivered • Need could be met through range of interventions programmed though LHS: • developing partnerships with the private rented sector; • tackling private sector disrepair; • using assistive technology to promote independence in older people; • tackling and preventing homelessness; • making better use of the current affordable and private stock; • developing flexible tenure options;and • increasing housing supply.

  38. Meeting Housing Need & Demand Tackling Homelessness Providing Housing Support Fuel Poverty Strategy Private Sector Housing Assessment Housing Supply Target Local Need 2012 Target Housing Market Area Evidence Local Need Local Housing Strategy Investment Direction Development Plan Link Local Delivery Role of PRS in Meeting Need Achieving Sustainable Communities Climate Change Challenge Local Actions Enforcement SHIP SOA Local Duty

  39. Recommendations • AC should prepare an action plan • quantify potential impact of each intervention • set targets for projected impact on overall level of unmet need • Residual need should be starting point for supply target setting • This process should consider • land capacity • development industry capacity • availability of development funding • corporate vision: Strategic Outcome Agreement

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