Modern Society is based on “ cheap ” energy and materials.

1. Weizmann Institute’s Alternative Sustainable Energy Research Initiative http://www.weizmann.ac.il/AERI/ Presentations are at http://www.weizmann.ac.il/AERI/presentations.html ENERGYvs. MATERIALS SUSTAINABILITY David Cahen and Igor Lubomirsky* Modern Society is based on “cheap” energy and materials. * I. Lubomirsky & D. Cahen, MRS Bulletin, April 2012 Thanks to Al Hurd, LANL !

2. from USGS

3. China formally announced 40% export quota reduction of rare earth elements.(In 2009, China produced 97% of all rare earth oxides.) July 8, 2010 Baiyun Ebo Mine Inner Mongolia Al Hurd, LANL

4. How did this happen? Baiyun Ebo Mine Inner Mongolia • Through 1980, the US dominated rare earth production • China gained 97% of the market by • Inventing mining techniques for low grade ores (ion-absorbed clays) • Cost advantage Al Hurd, LANL

5. Energy Critical Elements: • Necessary for current and emerging energy technologies including research, and whose demand could exceed supply; • Have not been widely extracted, traded, or utilized in the past; • Are not the focus of well-established or relatively stable markets. Examples * In solar cells, energy-efficient displays * Te solar cells and detectors * Pt catalysts * Re superalloys Al Hurd, LANL

6. 1940: Chicago Energy Critical Elements would include… U (natural) 2H (D2O) C (highly pure graphite) Al Hurd, LANL

7. The APS-MRS set of Energy Critical Elements Energy Critical Elements 2011 APS-MRS Al Hurd, LANL

8. 2011: The World;Energy Critical Elements • Rare Earths magnets, superconductors, lighting, alloys • In solar cells, energy-efficient displays • Te* solar cells and IR detectors • Ge solar cells and efficient electronics • Se solar cells • He* cryogenics • Li light-weight batteries • Pd catalysts • Pt group** catalysts • Re*, Co, Ag superalloys *rarest **most costly /gram Al Hurd, LANL

9. Nd2Fe14B magnetsMade ONLY in China (80%), Japan (17%), and Germany (3%). Karl Gschneidner, Ames Lab, USA A 3MW windmill requires 700 kg of Nd A hybrid car requires 3 kg of Nd. Nd2Fe14B lose 50% coercivity @100 C New Nd-Dy-Y—Fe-B magnet works to 200 C and uses less Nd. Al Hurd, LANL

10. EU Raw Materials Initiative named 14 “critical” mineral groups --June 2010 (endorsed by Canada Antimony, Beryllium, Cobalt, Fluorspar, Gallium, Germanium, Graphite, Indium, Magnesium, Niobium, Platinum Group Metals, Rare earths, Tantalum,Tungsten Al Hurd, LANL

11. South Korean analysis --Min Ha Lee, KITECH (2010) Rare metals in Korea 56 Elements Rarity Unstable supply Unstable price Green Tech Flat Panels * Exhaustion rate of steel =1 Domestic use Al Hurd, LANL

12. Al Hurd, LANL

13. C ~ A-η where η ~ 0.6 C= cost per kg A= weight abundance Al Hurd, LANL

14. ECEs Al Hurd, LANL Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others

15. from several metals from Zn from Cu-Mo from Al from Zn from Cu from Cu from natural gas ECEs that are byproducts Al Hurd, LANL Source of data: USGS, EIA, CRC Handbook of Chemistry and Physics, others

16. Realization 1: Technology uses energy to transform an object. The cheaper the energy is, the wider is the class of technologies that are considered economic Realization 2: Ages are defined by materials (stone, bronze, iron ..) AND by energy type: human, animal, water, peat, coal, oil etc.

17. Economic reality The price of a natural resource is defined by the most expensive production method in use Prices in USD/barrel Saudi Arabia, Iraq : <6 Algeria, Iran, Libya, Oman: <15 USD/barrel North Sea: >40 USD/barrel (prices of July 28, 2009) http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/28/oil-cost-factbox-idUSLS12407420090728

18. http://www.metalprices.com/pubcharts/Public/Aluminum_Price_Charts.asphttp://www.metalprices.com/pubcharts/Public/Aluminum_Price_Charts.asp http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/oil

19. from USGS

21. In 2008 energy consumption reached 15 TW; it will reach ~30 TW by 2030 Concrete fertilizer

22. Most of the energy is consumed to produce materials Concrete fertilizer

23. Cost of oil or equivalent for various sources Running cars on methanol is 25% cheaper than on gasoline with today’s prices http://www.reuters.com/article/2009/07/28/oil-cost-factbox-idUSLS12407420090728

24. Why is it not done? Methanol vs Gasoline prices as fuel for cars. The data are from http://www.moneyweek.com/news-and-charts/market-data/oil http://www.methanex.com/products/methanolprice.html

25. Electricity to fuel. Materials aspect 1 • Water electrolysis: low temperature electrolysis (alkaline process) requires Pt for > 80% efficiency. • All the world’s Pt resources are insufficient to affect energy infrastructure • Without Pt, efficiency is 50% (1 atm) - 80% (@high pressure)

26. Electricity to fuel. Materials aspect 2 • Water electrolysis: high temperature electrolysis (reversed fuel cells) • Materials are not restricted (Y, Zr, Ni, Co) • Efficiency @120 C  45%; @ 850 C < 65%; • Theoretically FEASIBLE; practically not tested 3. CO2 to CO electrolysis: Available data are insufficient.

27. Solar cells energy payback time  optimistic … NREL, 2010 Real  -  c-Si ≈ 10 yr, pc-Si ≈5 yr, a-Si ≈ 5 yr

28. Do we have the materials? Sufficient for large-scale applications ?? For sure Si, Ti and organics are available in really large quantities