2 nd Annual Workshop Innovations In NAS-Wide Simulation In Support Of NextGen Benefits

1. 2nd Annual WorkshopInnovations In NAS-Wide SimulationIn Support Of NextGen Benefits January 2010 Kenny Martin

2. NextGen Requirements • Functional Requirements Of NextGen • Cross-Cutting Infrastructure/Enabler Programs • ADSB • SWIM • DataComm • NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) • NAS Voice Switch • RNAV/RNP • Solution Sets • TBO Trajectory Based Management • CATM Collaborative ATM • HD High Density Airports • FLEX Flexible Terminals & Airports • RWI Reduce Weather Impacts • SSE Safety, Security, Environmental Performance • FAC Transform Facilities

3. ISA Software Modeling Approach • ISA Software NextGen Activities • Cross-Cutting Infrastructure/Enabler Programs • ADSB • SWIM • DataComm • NextGen Network Enabled Weather (NNEW) • NAS Voice Switch • RNAV/RNP • Solution Sets • TBO Trajectory Based Management • CATM Collaborative ATM • HD High Density Airports • FLEX Flexible Terminals & Airports • RWI Reduce Weather Impacts • SSE Safety, Security, Environmental Performance • FAC Transform Facilities

4. ISA Software Modeling Approach • Approach To System-Wide Analysis • Simulation Platform • CHILL • Simulation Components • RAMS Plus NAS-Wide Fast-Time Model • Multi-Sector Planner • Trajectory Builder • Conflict Detection & Resolution Components • MONACO user-preferred flight plan optimization • Complexity Analysis tool • Evaluator Metrics Assessment • Recent Example Applications • MSP Coordination Analysis • TBO in High Performance Airspace (HPA) • SESAR Collaborative Network Planning (Gaming) • ADSB 3nm Separation Assessment • DataComm Segment 1 Benefits • Supersonic Aircraft Impact Assessment

5. CHILL Agent-Based Modeling • What is CHILL? • Collaborative Human In the Loop Laboratory, supporting • System-wide, Networked Agent-based Modelling Platform • Implements SWIM and NNEW Functionalities • Model-based and/or HITL (Gaming) Studies • Collaborative ATM • Trajectory-Based Operations • Multi-Sector Planner • MONACO system-wide DCB optimization • User-Preferred Problem Solving • Evaluator Metrics Assessment

6. CHILL Main Features • Features of CHILL • Versatile collaborative platform for validation of advanced Air Traffic Management concepts • Evaluate traffic demand and airspace/airport conditions, to support collaborative decision-making processes • Promoting common situational awareness through SWIM • Rapid sharing of changes to airspace, airport and traffic conditions to all subscribers • Adapt CATM service based on operator preferences • Maximize user opportunities to propose problem solutions • Identify optimal solutions from multiple agents / participants • Provide up to date and timely picture of the entire ATM network in support of collaborative traffic management initiatives that maximize airspace capacity and improve operational efficiency • On-Demand NAS-Wide metrics

7. CHILL : Flexible Situation Awareness • Flow Oriented Analysis • Providing instantaneous information on a system-wide perspective • Within any 4-dimensional element (airport, sector, FEA, FCA, waypoint, SUA, weather volume etc.) • Quantify demand against available service levels in support of collaborative Demand-Capacity management • Simple (GUI-based) or declarative language based flows • Management solutions applied to all/part of any flow

8. CHILL : Traffic Management Planning • Service-Oriented Solutions • Matching service levels to demand • Allow all participants including airspace users to assess potential overload issues together • Supporting other capacity metrics • Workload, Complexity, Fuel, Emissions… • Applying user-preferred management initiatives • Providing interactive trial planning features • Assisting capacity balancing through automated tools • Diverse set of solutions supported: • Dynamic Airspace Allocation • User-preferred rerouting • Optimization of multiple rerouting portfolios • Multi-pass flight dispatching and slot management • MIT or Time-base Metering • Equitable distribution of penalties • Fine-tuning capabilities for improving efficiency

9. CHILL Mixed Fidelity Modeling • Macroscopic and Microscopic Agents • Matching fidelity of the model(s) to the validation requirements • Example: RAMS Plus representing a range of fidelity

10. Recent Validation Experiments • FAA Multi-Sector Planner (MSP) • High Performance Airspace : TBO Assessment • NASA N+3 Supersonic Aircraft Impact Assessment • ADSB 3nm Separation • DataComm Benefits Analysis • SESAR Trajectory-based ATM Concepts • SESAR ‘Episode III’ Collaborative Airspace/Network Management Validation

11. FAA Multi-Sector Planner • MSP acting in Area Flow Manager role • Previous RTS participants felt Area Flow was more efficient (solve more problems further in advance)‏ • Multi-D could become unmanageable with high traffic loads potential for loss of situational awareness • Investigate multiple MSP working across ATC Centers • Fort Worth, Kansas City and Memphis centers • 150 sectors, long inter-center boundaries, complex mix of traffic • Dallas-Fort Worth, St. Louis and Memphis airports • Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Denver adjacent

12. Modeled 50 adjacent MSP’s Sectors grouped based on traffic flows for high and super-high airspace‏ Major terminal regions excluded as they would have their own DST’s FL240-245 FL345+ FAA Multi-Sector Planner

13. Complex Experimental Platform 150 executive ATC controllers modeled using RAMS Plus agents 4 Major airports (DFW, DAL, STL, MEM) also modeled with RAMS Plus CHILL’s MSP Component: 50 MSPs MSP Workload Model Many agents with different levels of fidelity SIM-C (SWIM)‏ Component Underlying Messaging Via SENS for service discovery / message exchange FAA Multi-Sector Planner

14. MSP Responsibilities Knowledge of traffic 45 minutes in advance If overload predicted, the MSP: Finds flight(s) in sector during overload Attempts to find suitable reroutes to reduce overload If successful, coordinate with impacted MSPs Upstream MSP, if reroute begins in another MSA Downstream MSPs, if reroute enters a sector not previously in flight plan, within 40 minutes of start of reroute Other MSPs will accept reroute unless: Reroute creates or worsens an overload in other MSA Other MSP is too busy (using new MSP workload model) Executive controller action (conflict resolution) always cancels pending MSP trial plans FAA Multi-Sector Planner

15. Key Findings Traffic balance improved with MSP: Stdev of peak % of MAP reduced by 50%. FAA Multi-Sector Planner

16. Key Findings Overloads for entire region significantly reduced by MSP in all scenarios – More than 10x Reduction with traffic+40% scenario FAA Multi-Sector Planner

17. Key Findings Traffic Demand across region is significantly better balanced – Example: Core 12-hour analysis period with traffic+40% scenario Plus40 NoMSP Plus40 MSP S E C T O R S FAA Multi-Sector Planner

18. Key Findings Around 50% of flight plan uplinks require coordination with ATC in another ATC center FAA Multi-Sector Planner

19. FAA TBO in High Performance Airspace HPA ConOps relies heavily on TBO HPA is defined as FL 340+ Airspace based on generic sectors and flexible airspace design principles TBO aircraft are RNAV and DataComm equipped 4D Trajectories Basis for planning and control Sent and received independently of ground navaids. Include Controlled Time of Arrivals (CTA) at the entry and the exit of the high altitude airspace Intermediate waypoints CTA’s, if optionally defined, have less restrictive timing constraints High Performance Airspace: TBO

20. Study Objectives Understand the expected benefits and risks on both users and service providers in terms of: Capacity and throughput Users operational cost in terms of punctuality, travel distance and fuel consumption Sector conflict density and traffic complexity inherent to freedom to navigate outside structured routes. Implement a set of metrics to quantify: Conflict geometry and attitude distribution Traffic density and controlled flight hours in a given volume Variation of demand and average transit time in a given volume High Performance Airspace: TBO

21. Modeling Approach Use of Navigation Reference System (NRS) as the primary blueprint for direct routing in the high altitude airspace High Performance Airspace: TBO

22. TBO Application Every TBO aircraft follows a direct route in the high altitude airspace The two nodes of the direct routes are located by their respective NRS points TBO aircraft may still contain structured routes when passing through non-high altitude airspace Separation standards remain the same: 5 miles laterally/ 1000 feet vertically Exit Entry High Performance Airspace: TBO

23. Validation Status Initial (baseline and variant) scenarios completed Metrics being reviewed with sponsors Initial report in progress Work will continue through 2010 High Performance Airspace: TBO

24. NASA ‘N+3’ Supersonic • Objectives • NASA research contract to investigate environmentally friendly supersonic airframe and propulsion concepts • Develop technology maturation plans to make the concept a reality • Goals: • Achieve a NextGen Integrated Advanced Vehicle Concept - Operational in the 2030 – 2035 timeframe • Assess the impact of the introduction of such vehicles within the NAS - Benefits, complexity, interaction with other traffic, possible ATC issues…

25. NASA ‘N+3’ Supersonic • Experimental objective • Develop N+3 aircraft performance models • Incorporate N+3 operations in the traffic forecast • Evaluate the impact of N+3 aircraft in the NAS • Assuming the re-introduction of supersonic aircraft in the future NAS, what is the likely impact on: • Traffic in the initial acceleration phase (around 10000ft) • Traffic in the second acceleration phase (23000ft and climb to supersonic) • Air traffic complexity due to the N+3 traffic • Controller workload due to special procedures required to handle supersonic aircraft

26. NASA ‘N+3’ Supersonic • N+3 Aircraft Performance • Introduce supersonic aircraft performance models - based on N+3 aircraft mission profiles supplied by LM-Aero team - carefully calibrated to be representative of expected performance N+3 fast/time model climb-phase mission profiles (compared to A320 in orange)

27. NASA ‘N+3’ Supersonic • N+3 Aircraft Performance • Descent Phases Also Represented N+3 fast/time model descent-phase mission profiles (compared to A320 in orange)

28. NASA ‘N+3’ Supersonic • N+3 Potential Operations • Operational Range around 6500NM with 200 passengers • Potential Applications • Major International Routes • Economically Viable Domestic Routes • Research from the US OTA ‘Impact of Advanced Aircraft Technology’ report [Princeton, 1980] chapter 3 (variables affecting a supersonic transport market) suggests that “ An aircraft’s product is passenger (/ cargo) miles” “ There are 2 ways to improve productivity: 1) larger aircraft (more seats – same flying time) 2) faster aircraft (same seats – shorter flying time)” • Both will improve the metric “PAX miles per hour”

29. NASA ‘N+3’ Supersonic • Traffic based on 2008 ASDI recordings • Cloned based on MITRE forecasts (approx 2% growth per year) to achieve 2030 traffic • Airspace from current NAS (2008) • 5NM separation standard • No additional ATC/ATM concepts included • Metrics to evaluate • Traffic interactions (N+3 vs Conventional conflicts, particularly in acceleration phases) • ATC Complexity • ATC Controller workload • Delays / On-Time arrival (particularly for N+3 operations)

30. NASA ‘N+3’ Supersonic • Current Status • Baseline 2030 (no supersonic) and variant (conventional + supersonic) scenarios completed • Results being reviewed with contractual partners • Final report due for publication end Feb 2010 Examples of potential International and Domestic Supersonic routes

31. ADSB 3nm Separation • ADSB 3nm Separation • Problem Statement: Quantify Benefits of ADS-B In Terms of Reduction in En-route Separation • Questions To Be Answered • In terms of system throughput, do flights get through the system with less delay? • How Do The Delay Benefits Reduce As With 3nm Flight Level Ceiling is lowered? • Key Assumptions • Enroute Separations Drive The Alternative Cases • ADSB Is Modeled As An Enabler • However: No Future Anticipated NextGen ConOps Behavior Is Introduced

32. ADSB 3nm Separation • ADSB NAS-Wide Scenario • Traffic Demand • 2012: 60,699 Flights • 2017: 67,180 Flights • Full NAS Sectorization • 4D Flight Profiles • 4D Conflict Probe • Wake Separations • Conflict Resolutions • Closely Spaced Parallel Routes • Airport Capacity Model

33. ADSB 3nm Separation • Airport Capacity Modelling • Focus On OEP Airports For Metric Generation • Used ATO-F FACT2 Arr/Dep Rates (arr/dep ops/hr) • Rates => Input To Airport’s Time-Based Metering Feature • Benefits • Ensures Aircraft Enter Enroute At Realistic Rate • Eliminates Need For Detailed Airport/Runway Operations In An Enroute View

34. ADSB 3nm Separation • ADSB Results • ADSB Metrics • Enroute & Arrival Delay • Sector Loadings • ADSB Findings • Reduced Separations Allow Flights To Get Through the Enroute Faster. • Some of the gain/benefit is lost in transition from Enroute to Airport. • Overall System Benefits Remains With Reduced Separations

35. DataComm – Segment 1 Benefits • Datacomm Segment 1 Benefits • Focus On Controller Communications • Voice Vs DCL • Revised Departure Clearance • Scope: IAH Airport Ground Movements • Gate, Runway , SID/STAR Operations • Question To Answer: Do DCL-Equipped Aircraft Take Off Any Faster Than Non-Equipped Aircraft in a revised departure clearance situation?

36. DataComm – Segment 1 Benefits • Datacomm Segment 1 Benefits • Revised Departure Clearance Situation • High TMI Day When Departure Gates Are Closed • Example: Northern Flows (departure gates) from IAH into DFW are closed. • Revised departure clearances necessary for all flights using the closed gates who have received their PDC (pre-departure clearance) • Today’s situation requires controller to go sequentially down a list of flights and transact the revised clearance departure by voice. • This results in a significant taxi-out delay.

37. DataComm – Segment 1 Benefits • Datacomm Segment 1 Benefits • Locations Of Flights When Revised Departure Clearances Are Needed

38. DataComm – Segment 1 Benefits • Datacomm Segment 1 Process • Scenarios • Equipage at 0%, 30%, 60% and 100% • Baseline against “good” day, and then instigate convective weather impacts. • Simulate IAH, and metroplex IAD/BWI/DCA • Design Extrapolation Process For NAS-Wide Benefits in support of FID. • Current Status • Airport Simulation Results In Progress • Extrapolation Process Being Designed

39. SESAR Trajectory-based ATM • Objectives • Based on 2012 traffic in the European Airspace investigate the feasibility, impact and potential benefit of 4D Trajectory-based operations: • Using pre-flight Target Time of Arrival (TTA) for Capacity Demand Planning (Reference Business Trajectory RBT-Constraints) • Using revised TTA’s following take-off • Allocating dynamic Controlled Time of Arrival (CTA) for key points during flight (e.g. entry to arrival management systems) • Using aircraft performance variation to try to respect TTA’s of all kinds.

40. SESAR Trajectory-based ATM • Modeling Features • RBT (pre take-off) constraint modelling • TTA model including heuristic and deterministic a/c performance management to respect target time ‘windows’ • FMS model to incorporate different TTA capabilities • Dynamic CTA modeling including time-base meters for entry to TMA system models • Unexpected weather / other noise modeling to perturb TTA plans • Impact of Non-homogeneous traffic mix (e.g. FMS-based CTA capable, Manual CTA with ATC assistance, non-compliant) • TTA compliance cancelled during ATC separation intervention • TTA recovery mode (if possible) following resolution

41. SESAR Trajectory-based ATM • Typical Metrics Considered • Conformance to initial target time constraints • Conformance to TTA following take-off • Impact of departure (taxi/take-off queue) delay • Dynamic CTA conformance • Failures to achieve dynamic CTA (+ reasons) • Impact of ATC Intervention • Ability to recover TTA following interventions • Compliance rates • With speed management • Without speed management • Average speed changes • Impact of ‘unexpected weather’ + recovery rates • Impact on fuel use • ATC workload due to target time management

42. SESAR Trajectory-based ATM • Status • Initial report delivered to client • Awaiting formal feedback • Recommendations include • Additional experiments to include improved TFM / AMAN models • Improved fuel assessment models • Enhancement of modeling features

43. SESAR Episode II Gaming Exercises • Gaming Exercises For SESAR/EP3 Validation of Concepts • Analysis of SESAR Airspace Management Concepts using Interactive Gaming Scenarios • Evaluation of different gaming strategies • Supported 6-8 operational (HITL) positions • 1 Game master, 1 Network Manager, 1 Regional Manager, 1 Military, 2 AOC positions • Final report currently in review by European Commission

44. Future Activities • What’s Planned For 2010? • Additional MSP Simulations • Expand 2008 MSP Analysis to NAS-Wide • Consider Data Com between Flight deck and MSP • Assessment of UAV impacts in The NAS • Continue TBO Validation • Data Com Segment 1 & Segment 2 Benefits • Support to SESAR system-wide TBM concept validation • Benefits To NextGen Modeling Efforts • Continued Development & Enhancement Of CHILL-compatible tools • Integration of 3rd Party Tools Within CHILL • Cross-Program (USA/Europe) Sharing Of Applications • Scenarios, metrics, behaviour, etc.