Velina Pendolovska European Commission, DG Climate Action

1. Scope of CC related statistics:Driving forces – Pressures – State – Impacts – Responses (DPSIR) Model Velina Pendolovska European Commission, DG Climate Action Meeting on Climate Change Related Statistics Geneva, 19-20 November 2012

2. The DPSIR model - introduction • DPSIR - a tool for structuring our thinking • A system's analysis view • While often presented as a circle with linear connections, interactions within the model are considered to be more complex

3. Driving forces Pressures s Social and economic developments which exert or mitigate pressures on the environment Stresses that human activities put on the environment, stemming from socio-economic activities - Responses State Measures and responses undertaken by society to address environmental concerns State of the environment, i.e. the present condition in terms of quantity and quality of resources Impacts The DPSIR model – schematic view Effects of a changed environment and the consequences for human health, the economy, etc.

4. State Snapshot of the situation - the state of the climate system and the environment as affected by climate change Typically done outside NSOs by specialised agencies (e.g. meteorological organisations), feeding into IPCC Assessment Reports Key information on state of the climate system can include: • Concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere (atmospheric composition) • Surface temperature change • Changes in weather patterns (winds, precipitation, extreme events) • Changes in oceans (salinity, currents, ocean colour, sea level rise) • Changes in cryosphere (glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, etc.) • Terrestrial and biosphere changes (impacts on biodiversity, species movements, crops, insects, etc.)

5. Driving forces Higher population Higher energy demand Higher wealth of nations Higher migration (travel) More trade, globalisation of economy Different household structure (less inhabitants per household) More intensive agriculture, diets including more meat Increased levels of waste

6. Driving forces – relevant statistics Relevant statistics can comprise: • Population, demography, migration statistics • Household statistics (type, size, etc.) • International trade statistics • Energy statistics • Agriculture and food statistics, including on agricultural production • Economic and business statistics, including GDP, income, employment, output, etc. • Waste statistics • Tourism, consumption and time use statistics

7. Pressures Principally the core pressure for climate change are the greenhouse gas emissions and the underlying activities that produce them, such as: • Combustion of fossil fuels (e.g. for electricity generation) • Industrial activities and their output • Transport • Production/extraction of fossil fuels • Livestock and soils in agriculture • Waste and waste treatment • Land use, land use change and forestry Other aspects: Emission factors, Production of ozone depleting substances

8. Pressures – greenhouse gas inventories Emissions and removals of direct GHGs: • CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6 (in the future also NF3) • six sectors: Energy, Industrial processes, Solvents, Agriculture, Land use, Land use change and Forestry (LULUCF) and Waste In essence, emissions calculated on the basis of emission factors and activity data but typically not compiled in NSOs Activity data relies on available statistics, comprising: • Energy statistics • Transport statistics • Industrial production statistics • Waste and waste treatment statistics, including wastewater treatment • Agriculture statistics • Forestry and land cover/use statistics

9. Pressures – air emissions accounts Satellite accounts to national accounts, extending them with environmental variables Strong link to the economy and the related concepts and definitions (e.g. residence principle), allowing for integrated analysis Different sectoral breakdown from the inventories, following classifications of economic activities (e.g. ISIC, NACE) System of environmental economic accounts (SEEA) set up as a UN statistical standard Methodology for the accounts rests on the availability of the inventories data Strong role of NSOs

10. Impacts – two-fold view Natural phenomena: Storms, sea level rise, ocean salinity, species movement, floods, droughts, extreme temperatures (heat waves/cold spells), etc. Socio-economic impacts on human life: • On food: changes in crop patterns, water availability • On human health: mortality due to extreme events; vector-borne diseases (e.g. malaria) and food-/waterborne diseases • Economic impacts: • loss of wealth and competitiveness • damages (e.g. after a hurricane) • forced migration and poverty • conflict

11. Impacts – relevant statistics Natural phenomena typically not tracked by NSOs For impacts on human life, relevant statistics can include: • Water statistics (including access to water, water stress index, etc.) • Agriculture and food statistics (shifting crop patterns, production patterns, etc.) • Marine and fisheries statistics (especially relevant for coastal areas, catch and by-catch, etc.) • Economic development and poverty statistics • Migration statistics • Health statistics (e.g. on vector-borne diseases or heat-aggravated diseases, etc.) • Heating degree days statistics

12. Responses Measures taken to address the causes of climate change and provide curative action, e.g. replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy Not always easy to express in quantitative terms Often linked to official political targets, e.g. in the European Union under the Europe 2020 Strategy Responses should address not only measures to tackle climate change but also economic opportunities generated as a result of climate change like eco-industries, green jobs and green growth

13. Responses – relevant statistics Relevant statistics can include: • Environmental protection expenditure and investment statistics • Taxes and subsidies statistics and statistics covering other economic instruments such as tradable permits, green certificates, etc. • Turnover and market output of "green" sectors • Price statistics (e.g. oil prices, energy prices, etc.) • Renewable energies statistics (e.g. as an important mitigation measure) • Energy, material and emissions efficiency indicators • Recycling and other waste statistics • Employment statistics • Government finance statistics and other finance statistics • Education statistics

14. DPSIR Model - Conclusions DPSIR – a good tool for structuring the relevant information, allowing for a good coverage of climate-relevant information Intuitively appealing categories DPSIR only a framework, it does not necessarily define what should be included Danger of misinterpreting inter-relations and causality links Difficulties in perfectly attributing variables to DPSIR categories

15. Scope of CC related statistics: the Mitigation, Impacts and Adaptation model Velina Pendolovska European Commission, DG Climate Action Meeting on Climate Change Related Statistics Geneva, 19-20 November 2012

16. The MIA model - introduction Impacts, mitigation, adaptation – following a simple logic centred around the main strands of climate policy: • Mitigation – measures taken to address the causes of climate change (principally reduction of greenhouse gas emissions) • Impacts – the natural and subsequent socio-economic consequences of climate change • Adaptation – the measures taken by humanity to adapt to the inevitable consequences of climate change

17. The MIA model – relevant statistics Mitigation: • Greenhouse gas emissions • Underlying activity data (energy, transport, waste, etc.) • Statistics on mitigation measures (e.g. renewable energy) Adaptation: • Agriculture statistics • Statistics on investment/expendinture for adaptation measures • Insurance statistics • Migration statistics • Health statistics

18. Thank you for your attention!