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Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios

Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios. Zachariah Adelman, Meridith Fry, J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering University of North Carolina Pat Dolwick , Carey Jang Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards

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Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios

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  1. Background Air Quality in the United States Under Current and Future Emissions Scenarios Zachariah Adelman, MeridithFry, J. Jason West Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering University of North Carolina Pat Dolwick, Carey Jang Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards United States Environmental Protection Agency Presented at the 10th Annual CMAS Conference October 24-26, 2011 Chapel Hill, NC

  2. Motivation and Objectives • Will U.S. background air pollutant concentrations increase in the future? • Objectives: • Gather and process latest IPCC inventories for current and future year emissions estimates • Use MOZART-4 to simulate future air quality resulting from climate change mitigation emissions scenarios • Estimate background air quality in the U.S. by “zeroing-out” North American anthropogenic emissions • Downscale global modeling results to produce boundary conditions for regional modeling 10th Annual CMAS Conference 1 Chapel Hill, NC

  3. Methods and Data • Chemistry-Transport Model: MOZART-4 • Meteorology: 2005 GEOS-5 1.9°x2.5° • Emissions Inventory: 2005 and 2030 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) • RCP8.5 – Business as usual emissions • RCP4.5 – Best estimate emissions reduction • RCP2.6 – Maximum emissions reduction • Zero-out North America (ZONA): • U.S., Canada, Mexico anthropogenic emissions set to zero • Includes near-shore (< 50km) shipping, aircraft < 3km, and fertilizer 10th Annual CMAS Conference 2 Chapel Hill, NC

  4. Methods and Data • Emissions processing with custom IDL and NCL scripts • Speciate with RCP to MOZART-4 conversion factors • Temporalize with RETRO monthly profiles • Regrid to GEOS-5 grid • Merge natural and anthropogenic sectors and create MOZART-ready files Speciate Temporalize Regrid Merge 10th Annual CMAS Conference 3 Chapel Hill, NC

  5. RCP  MOZART-4 Species 10th Annual CMAS Conference 4 Chapel Hill, NC

  6. MOZART-4 Simulations • Simulations using meteorology for 2005 • July 1 – December 31, 2004 spin-up • Fixed methane concentrations 10th Annual CMAS Conference 5 Chapel Hill, NC

  7. Emissions Summaries Global US NOx NMVOC 10th Annual CMAS Conference 6 Chapel Hill, NC

  8. Emissions Summaries Global US BC OC 10th Annual CMAS Conference 7 Chapel Hill, NC

  9. Base Annual Max 8-hr O3 Results RCP 8.5 2005 RCP 8.5 2030 RCP 4.5 2030 RCP 2.6 2030 10th Annual CMAS Conference 8 Chapel Hill, NC

  10. ZONA Annual Max 8-hr O3 Results RCP 8.5 2005 RCP 8.5 2030 RCP 4.5 2030 RCP 2.6 2030 10th Annual CMAS Conference 9 Chapel Hill, NC

  11. 8-hr O3 Results 10th Annual CMAS Conference 10 Chapel Hill, NC

  12. Background U.S. mean 8-hr O3 Background contribution to U.S. mean 8-hr O3 10th Annual CMAS Conference 11 Chapel Hill, NC

  13. U.S. Summer Daily Max 8-hr O3 Frequency Distribution 10th Annual CMAS Conference 12 Chapel Hill, NC

  14. Base Annual Max 24-hr non-dust PM2.5* Results *(SO4, NO3, NH4, SOA, EC, and OC) RCP 8.5 2005 RCP 8.5 2030 RCP 4.5 2030 RCP 2.6 2030 10th Annual CMAS Conference 13 Chapel Hill, NC

  15. ZONA Annual Max 24-hr non-dust PM2.5 Results RCP 8.5 2005 RCP 8.5 2030 RCP 4.5 2030 RCP 2.6 2030 10th Annual CMAS Conference 14 Chapel Hill, NC

  16. PM2.5 Results 10th Annual CMAS Conference 15 Chapel Hill, NC

  17. Speciated U.S. Annual Max PM2.5 10th Annual CMAS Conference 16 Chapel Hill, NC

  18. CONUS36 CMAQ Annual Max 1-hr O3 BCs RCP8.5 2005 RCP8.5 2030 S N E W S N E W S N E W S N E W RCP4.5 2030 RCP2.6 2030 10th Annual CMAS Conference 17 Chapel Hill, NC

  19. CONUS36 CMAQ Annual Max 1-hr PM2.5 BCs RCP8.5 2030 S N E W S N E W S N E W RCP4.5 2030 RCP2.6 2030 10th Annual CMAS Conference 18 Chapel Hill, NC

  20. Conclusions • These results indicate that only the emissions scenario that pursued extremely aggressive climate change mitigation (RCP2.6) lead to reductions in global O3 burden and U.S. background O3 and PM2.5 concentrations. • Annual maximum U.S. 8-hr O3 concentrations and frequency of high (> 70 ppb) 8-hr O3 events are predicted to decrease in all simulated future emissions cases, likely due to domestic emission controls • Contribution of background to total U.S. O3 concentrations predicted to increase in the future (~2-5% to annual mean and up to 10% to summer mean): combination of rise in transported O3 and drop in domestic O3 production 10th Annual CMAS Conference 19 Chapel Hill, NC

  21. Future Work • Probe MOZART process-level output to gain a better understanding of the differences between the RCP results • Run CMAQ with the downscaled 2005 and 2030 BCs and recalculate U.S. background concentrations 10th Annual CMAS Conference 20 Chapel Hill, NC

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