Air Emissions and Fuel Quality Developments In the EU

1. Air Emissions and Fuel Quality Developments In the EU Presented October 27, 2005 REC Conference, Hungary Sandrine Dixson-Declève Executive Director, Europe & Africa International Fuel Quality Center (IFQC) www.ifqc.org 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

2. IFQC Members 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

3. The Drivers for Better Air Quality Vary • Local Economic Situation • governmental interest • taxes • fuel adulteration • availability Politics Energy Security Industry Economics Industry Competition • Fuel specifications • Lead • Sulphur • Distillation • Aromatics • Octane • Additives • Oxygenates • Lubricants • Alternative fuels • Bio-fuels • LPG • CNG • GTL • H2 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

4. The Situation in Each Country Varies…. • Emissions • WHO/Kyoto • CO • NOx • VOC • PM • Environment & Health • Global • Country • Regional • Local Refining Industry & Technology • Vehicle Park/ Engine Technologies • Age • Gasoline & Diesel • After Treatment Technology • Direct Injection • Hybrids • Fuel cells 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

5. Fuel Quality StrategyBuilding Blocks Source: International Fuel Quality Center (IFQC), 2003. 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

6. Air Quality & Climate Change Drivers 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

7. The First Pillar: Air Quality Source: International Fuel Quality Center (IFQC), 2003. 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

8. Case Study: EU Auto Oil Program Goals • Respond to Ambient Air Quality Targets and an integrated approach requiring further measures to reduce atmospheric pollution caused by vehicles • Address growing concern over pollution from the transportation sector • Passenger cars represent within EU member states from 75 to 90% of the total traffic volume, goods transport 8 to 20%, while bus and two-wheeler traffic are limited to 1 to 2% each . • Number of Vehicles on the road and increase in vehicle miles traveled offset decline in most pollutants • Motor vehicles generate about 30% of all emissions of nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds--the pollution that causes smog. • CO2 emissions from transport increased by 41% between 1985 and 1996 quickly becoming the largest source of CO2 emissions next to the energy sector. Road transport accounts for 85% of transport emissions • Implement a cost effective program with significant environmental and health benefits • When fully implemented, this program is estimated to reduce urban NOx emission by >39%, urban CO by >51%, urban benzene by >48%, urban PM by >39%, total NOx by >35%, total VOCs by >46%. • The European Commission and national Governments calculate that the Auto Oil legislation will prevent many deaths especially in urban centers, as well as cases of chronic and acute bronchitis, and other respiratory problems. 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

9. Pollutant Auto-Oil I Targets NO2 200 µg/m³ 1 hour average as a 98th percentile (upper value) 200 µg/m³ as a maximum value (lower value) CO 10mg/m³ 8hour rolling mean Benzene 16 µg/m³ annual mean (upper value 2.5 µg/m³ annual mean (lower value) PM10 Not modelled Ozone 180 µg/m³ 1 hour mean 120 µg/m³ 8 hour rolling mean Auto-Oil I Air Quality Targets Source: Arthur D. Little, 1998. Case Study – The Introduction of Improved Transport Fuel Qualities in Finland and Sweden 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

10. Pollutant Auto Oil II Target NO2 200 µg/m³ 1 hour average 99.8 percentile 40 µg/m³ annual CO 10 mg/m³ 8 hour rolling mean Benzene 5 µg/m³ annual PM10 50 µg/m³ 24 hour average 20 µg/m³ annual Ozone 120 µg/m³ 8 hour mean (within one day) 20 day exceedances per year - averaged over three years Auto-Oil II Air Quality Targets Source: Arthur D. Little, 1998. Case Study – The Introduction of Improved Transport Fuel Qualities in Finland and Sweden 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

11. EUAir Quality Legislation • Directive 1999/30/EC : SO2, NOx, Pb and Particulate Matter • Directive 2000/69/EC : CO and Benzene • Directive 2002/03/EC : Ozone • Proposal : Heavy metals (As, Cd, Ni, Hg) and PAH [B(a)P as marker] 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

12. Urban Air Quality 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

13. EU Road Transport Emissions Source : European Commission, Peter Gammeltoft 2004 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

14. Climate Change CO2 emissions per transport mode, 1990 and 2010 (projected) in EU15 (PRIMES Baseline Projection) 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

15. EU Automotive Emissions Policy 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

16. The Second Pillar: Auto Emissions 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

17. Light-duty Vehicles Legislation Directive 98/69/EC, since 1 January 2000 Source: P. Good, Commission DG Industry, Hart’s World Fuels & Refining Conference, Brussels 2005 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

18. 100 % 90 80 70 70/220/EEC 60 50 Index, 1970 = 100 40 30 74/290/EEC 77/102/EEC 20 78/665/EEC 94/12 Euro 2 83/351/EEC 98/69 Euro 3 91/441 Euro 1 10 98/69 Euro 4 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 CO 1980 1982 1984 1986 HC + NOx 1988 Source: Renault, 2003 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 EU Emission Limits for Gasoline Vehicles 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

19. EU Emission Limits for HDV’s % reduction 100 90 80 70 PM NOx 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Euro I Euro II Euro III Euro IV Euro V Source: Renault, 2003 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

20. Euro-5: Some Key Issues • Particulate matter from diesel: • Mass reduction • Ultrafine PM • NOx from diesel: • How much NOx reduction? • Means of achievingit • Cost effectiveness 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

21. Euro-5: Emission Limit Scenarios Diesel 7 Initial Scenarios • NOx: 40 - 75% reduction • PM: 50 - 90% reduction Gasoline 6 Initial Scenarios • NOx: 0 - 70% reduction • HC: 0 - 50% reduction • PM: Limit for lean burn direct injection Fiscal Incentives Paper (Jan 2005) suggested PM limitof 5 mg/km (80% reduction) 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

22. Euro 6: Heavy Duty Being considered for 2013: • Questionnaire developed 6 scenarios for diesel and 5 for gas engines • NOx: 0 . 90% reduction • PM: 0 . 66% reduction • THC: 0 . 70% reduction • Key issues • PM traps • How much NOx reduction • Effectiveness of SCR 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

23. CO2 Cars Strategy • Community target for new registrations (EU 15): 120 g CO2/km, 140 g CO2/km agreed • Three pillar strategy: • Voluntary Commitments of the car industries • Fuel efficiency labelling • Fiscal measures • Two pillars erected; fiscal measures still pending 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

24. CO2 Cars Strategy 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

25. CO2 Cars Strategy 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary

26. Global Fuel Quality Issues: Conclusions • Most countries base fuel quality legislation on EU, and hybrid of CEN and ASTM standards. • Fuel quality improvements happening worldwide at different pace and focus - from lead phase out to CO2 reductions and sulfur reductions in heavier fuels. • Concluding Remarks: Eastern Europe should develop country specific solutions yet can learn from other regions thus save time and money and ultimately achieve air quality goals! 27 October 2005, Budapest, Hungary