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Summary of predicted climate effects on species

Summary of predicted climate effects on species. Source: Foden, Mace et al. 2009 IUCN. CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BASED ON IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS. B1 Low emissions scenario. A1B Medium emissions scenario. A2 Medium/high emissions scenario “ Business as usual ”.

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Summary of predicted climate effects on species

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  1. Summary of predicted climate effects on species Source: Foden, Mace et al. 2009 IUCN

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE PREDICTIONS BASED ON IPCC EMISSION SCENARIOS B1 Low emissions scenario A1B Medium emissions scenario A2 Medium/high emissions scenario “Business as usual” Increases in surface air temperature,IPCC (2007) WGI: The Physical Basis of Climate Change

  3. Vulnerability framework Levels of vulnerability used to grade species

  4. 28 SPECIES STUDIED IDENTIFIED AS HAVING A HIGH VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE: • Loggerhead Turtle, • Short-tailed Albatross, • West African Manatee, • Bowhead Whale, • Dama Gazelle, • Leatherback Turtle, • Sociable Plover, • Southern Right Whale, • Olive Ridley, • Addax, • Red-breasted Goose, • White-naped Crane, • Steller's Eider, • Siberian Crane, • Blue Whale, • Giant Catfish, • Basra Reed-warbler, • Common Sturgeon, • Bermuda Petrel and • Snow Leopard. • Hawksbill Turtle, • Green Turtle, • Balearic Shearwater, • Kemp's Ridley Turtle, • Narwhal, • North Pacific Right Whale, • Northern Atlantic Right Whale, • Relict Gull, • Gharial,

  5. Trap operating currently Trap no longer operated RIS light-trap network > 400 have run at least 1 full year 56 sites sampled ≥15 years 30 sites sampled ≥25 years 80 – 100 run annually Continuous, national record of >400 macro-moth species One of the world’s longest records of contemporary insect biodiversity

  6. Decline in total trap catches Total Catch / Site 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 Abundance Index -0.2 -0.3 32 % decrease in 35 years -0.4 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year

  7. Two fundamental concerns… • Are we sufficiently aware of the global warming threat? • Are we sufficiently responding to that threat?

  8. What is a safe temperature/CO2 level? Current focus is all on 2oC (~450ppm CO2)

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