How Climate Can Be Predicted

How Climate Can Be Predicted Why Some Predictability Exists, and How Predictions Can Be Made

Seasonal/interannual predictability comes from factors that exert a continuous influence over a period of time that includes many sequences of weather events. Such factors are: Sea surface temperatures (SST; ENSO, others) Land surface conditions: soil moisture, vegetation Radiative variations (volcanos, greenhouse gases) Intraseasonal processes (MJO)

Much of the predictable part of seasonal climate comes as a result of anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in tropical ocean basins.

ENSO: The strongest source of tropical SST variation Total SST Anomaly of SST

El Nińo La Nińa

Climate Variability: Importance of ENSO and its Prediction Tropical Pacific SST anomaly in December of Year (0) of some El Nino episodes

Total Total Anomaly

Normal El NińoLa Nińa

Nińo3.4 region: 5ºN-5ºS, 120º-170ºW El Nińo El Nińo La Nińa La Nińa La Nińa

El Nińo episodes often begin in April, May or June, and end in about 10-12 months, in February, March, April, or May.

Mason and Goddard, 2001, Probabilistic precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82, 619-638. http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast//enso/index.html

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast//enso/index.html

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.IRI/.Analyses/.ENSO-RP/.ver1950-2002/http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.IRI/.Analyses/.ENSO-RP/.ver1950-2002/ warm

http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.IRI/.Analyses/.ENSO-RP/.ver1950-2002/http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.IRI/.Analyses/.ENSO-RP/.ver1950-2002/ . cold

Is the ENSO phase predictable?

A Brief History of LDEO Model • LDEO1:Original Cane and Zebiak model (Cane et al., Nature, 1986) • LDEO2:LDEO1 plus coupled initialization (Chen et al., Science, 1995) • LDEO3:LDEO2 plus sea level data assimilation (Chen et al., GRL,1998) • LDEO4:LDEO3 plus statistical bias correction (Chen et al., GRL, 2000) • LDEO5:LDEO4 plus additional correction on SST (Chen et al., Nature, 2004) LDEO5 Forecast Skill LDEO4 0.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDEO2 LDEO3 0.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LDEO1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.6 6 month lead; 1970-1985 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 0.5 0.4 1995 2005 1985 1990 2000

***** questionable forecast: late onset of El Nińo . questionable forecast: early dissipation of El Nińo due partly to MJO questionable forecast: Onset of La Nińa at unusual time of year

***** acceptable forecast: late onset of El Nińo . acceptable forecast: early dissipation of El Nińo due partly to MJO acceptable forecast: Onset of La Nińa at unusual time of year

Lead cor skill rmse skill ‘04-06 ‘04-07 ‘04-06 ‘04-07 •

Lead cor skill rmse skill ‘04-06 ‘04-07 ‘04-06 ‘04-07 ? ? • ?

How Climate Can Be Predicted

How Climate Can Be Predicted

Presentation Transcript

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