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Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001?

Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001?. Nicola Tromans, Eva Natamba and Julie Jefferies Office for National Statistics. Trends in UK births and fertility rates Data sources Country of birth analysis Births Population Fertility rates

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Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001?

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  1. Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001? Nicola Tromans, Eva Natamba and Julie Jefferies Office for National Statistics

  2. Trends in UK births and fertility rates Data sources Country of birth analysis Births Population Fertility rates Quantify drivers behind rise in births Most common countries of birth, foreign born mothers Actual and intended family size comparison Overview

  3. Trends in UK births and fertility rates 2001-2008

  4. Data Sources • Analysis based on Country of birth of mother • Not a precise proxy for international migrants • Birth Registrations • Births by age and by country of birth of mother • Annual Population Survey 2004-2008 • Estimated UK population • UK born and foreign born females by five-year age group • LFS 2001

  5. Live births by country of birth of mother, UK, 2001-2008 Source: Birth registrations 63% of overall rise in UK births since 2001 can be attributed to foreign born women

  6. Proportion of births to foreign born women, UK, 2001 and 2008 Between 2001 and 2008 the proportion of births to foreign born women increased from 15.3 per cent to 22.9 per cent.

  7. Estimated population of women of reproductive age by country of birth, UK, 2001 and 2008

  8. Estimated population of women of reproductive age by country of birth, UK, 2001 and 2008 Source: Labour Force Survey 2001, Annual Population Survey 2008.

  9. Live births by age and country of birth of mother, UK, 2001 and 2008 Source: Birth Registrations

  10. Estimated Total Fertility Rates for UK born and foreign born women, UK, 2004-2008 Source: Birth registrations and Annual Population Survey The rise in the overall TFR is mainly due to increasing fertility among UK born women Foreign born women are also pushing the TFR upwards though because they generally have higher fertility and are making up an increasing share of the UK population

  11. Why have the number of births to UK born and foreign born women increased since 2001? • UK born women: • Rising fertility rates • Rise in births not as high as could have been • Decreasing female population aged 25-39 • Foreign born women: • Increase in number of women • particularly at ages where fertility is highest • Higher fertility levels than UK born counterparts • Fertility rates have remained relatively unchanged

  12. Quantifying the drivers of the overall increase in UK births, 2004-2007

  13. Ten most common countries of birth of mother, foreign born mothers only, UK

  14. Distribution of Actual family size, women aged 40-49 Great Britain Source: GHS 2000-2007

  15. Distribution of Intended family size, women aged 16-49 Great Britain Source: GHS 2000-2007

  16. Does a high proportion of births to foreign born mothers imply high fertility levels? Local Authorities, England and Wales, 2007

  17. Summary: Why have UK births increased? • 2001-2008: Births increased by 19% • Births to foreign born women account for 2/3 of overall increase • Increasing UK born fertility • Downwards effect from changes in size and age structure UK born population • Increased numbers of foreign born females • Much smaller upward impact from changes to • Foreign born population age structure • Foreign born fertility rates

  18. Will the increase in births continue? • UK born women • Dependent on future fertility rates • Downward impact from population size and age structure expected to continue • Foreign born women • Future fertility levels – some form of convergence? • Future migration patterns unknown – impact on population size • Recent economic downturn could affect both groups in different ways • Existing theories point to both possible rise or fall in fertility rates • Effect on migration

  19. fertility@ons.gov.uk Any questions? Have women born outside the UK driven the rise in UK births since 2001? Population Trends 136

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