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Tornado Warning Verification and its Relationship to Storm Type

Tornado Warning Verification and its Relationship to Storm Type. Eric Guillot July 12, 2007 REU Interim Presentation Mentors: Travis Smith Valliappa “Lak” Lakshmanan Greg Stumpf Don Burgess. Manual Storm Classification.

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Tornado Warning Verification and its Relationship to Storm Type

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  1. Tornado Warning Verification and its Relationship to Storm Type Eric Guillot July 12, 2007 REU Interim Presentation Mentors: Travis Smith Valliappa “Lak” Lakshmanan Greg Stumpf Don Burgess

  2. Manual Storm Classification • Manually classified over 1,000 storms over three days worth of data (March 28th, May 5th, and May 28th of 2007). • Turned polygons into grids, overlaid with clustering program to decide which level of clustering performed the best

  3. Cluster Identification Using Kmeans • Radar base reflectivity analyzed by computer program to identify areas of concentrated reflectivity (clusters) • Lakshmanan, V., R. Rabin, and V. DeBrunner, 2003: Multiscale storm identification and forecast. J. Atm. Res., 67, 367-380 • Kmeans yields 3 different scales of clustering…we chose either C or D to train the decision tree • Mostly, cluster attributes at 420 km^2 (scale D) used for our study

  4. Decision Tree Training • Trained decision tree using manually classified storms in order to develop a logical process for automatically classifying them • Tested this decision tree on three additional cases (April 21st of 2007, and May 10th and 14th of 2006) • TSS=0.58; good enough for our study to continue

  5. Tornado Warning Verification • Tornado warnings from 45 different WFO’s overlaid with LSRs from SPC, coupled with closest storm at time of warning • Considered “hit” if warning matches up spatially and temporally with tornado report • Considered “miss” if no warning issued, but tornado reported • Considered “false alarm” if warning issued, but no tornado reported

  6. Preliminary Results • Breaking down forecast skill parameters by storm type yields insightful results • Seems to be most skill among forecasters for torndos spawned by isolated supercells • Forecasters seem to have most difficult time forecasting “landspouts” spawned in pulse storms and non-severe storms • Statistically prove that different storms spawn tornados that are easier/more difficult to forecast for

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