Understanding Human Decision-Making and Behavior during Tornado Warning Events

1. Understanding Human Decision-Making and Behavior during Tornado Warning Events Nicholas Humphrey Department of Interdisciplinary Studies South Dakota State University

2. Acknowledgements • Dr. Katherine Erdman-Becker, Interdisciplinary Studies, SDSU • Dr. Michael Wimberly, GIS Center of Excellence, SDSU • Dr. Mark Anderson, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, UNL • Dr. Katherine Sherman-Morris, Geosciences, Mississippi State University • Kim Klockow, PhD candidate, Geography, OU • Support from family and friends!

3. Defining the Problem Photo by Wikipedia user Ks0Stm

4. Defining the Problem • The National Weather Service issues tornado warnings to provide urgent information and help people protect themselves from a dangerous meteorological hazard. • However, evidence suggests that many do not respond properly to warnings with protective action. • Evidence gathered via National Weather Service post-event assessments as well as other scientific survey/interview research.

5. Tuscaloosa, AL Tornado (2011) Photo by Mike Wilhelm

6. Joplin, MO Tornado (2011) Photo by David Eulitt

7. Call-to-Action Call-t0-Action Statement: THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. IF YOU CANNOT GET UNDERGROUND GO TO A STORM SHELTER OR AN INTERIOR ROOM OF A STURDY BUILDING NOW.

8. Tornado Warning Compliance • The behavior by which an individual takes protective action in response to a tornado warning can be referred to as compliance. • Compliance can be further defined by the terms hard, soft, and non-compliance. • Hard Compliance: “Instant” intent to take action. • Soft Compliance: Delayed intent until condition is met. • Non-Compliance: No intent to take action.

9. Research Questions • Why do people behave the way they do during tornado warnings? • How can compliance with tornado warning call-to-action statements for protective action be improved?

10. Sub-Disciplines • Weather Forecasting Meteorology • Hazard Geography • Cognitive Psychology • Social Psychology

11. Methodology • Interdisciplinary Research Process • Disciplinary Literature Review • Identifying Conflicts • Finding common ground through integration techniques

12. Literature Review – Key Theories • Risk Communication Theory • Differentiation and Consolidation Theory • Signal Detection Theory • Theory of Planned Behavior • Social Exchange Theory

13. Conflict between Theories • Risk Communication Theory explains the communication process from the reception of the warning to the response. The process of how one actually believes, personalizes and responds are not explained. • Psychological theories provide variables for decision-making and behavior. The theories do not deal with the communication process leading to the response to warnings.

14. Integration Strategy and Resultant Interdisciplinary Theory • Theory Extension • The extension in the scope of a disciplinary theory to encompass the variables of other disciplinary theories. • Extended Risk Communication Theory • Integrates Risk Communication Theory and the psychological theories of decision-making and behavior.

15. Implications • Individuals go through circular decision-making processes by which they ultimately respond to a tornado warning. • Process may take time and may be accompanied by criteria by which must be met before responding. Explains why most individuals are “soft compliant”. • Tornado warnings are treated as individual phenomenon to people as opposed to geographical phenomeon.

16. Recommendations for Meteorologists/Emergency Managers • When a tornado warning is issued, provide as much impact-based information as possible. • Change attitudes toward taking protective action and the value of such action. • Meteorologists must understand they are not the only source of influence within the minds of people who are making decisions during tornado warnings.

17. Questions?