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Oil Spill Risk Assessment and Emergency Response Simulation

This project aims to assess the possibility of oil spills from various sources and develop emergency response strategies. It includes simulations of oil spill behavior and considers scenarios such as well spills, tanker accidents, and storage leakage. The study analyzes the risk of emissions by accidents at wells and the probability of spills from tanker accidents. It also examines the characteristics of oil weathering and estimates the spread of oil spills in different ice and non-ice periods.

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Oil Spill Risk Assessment and Emergency Response Simulation

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  1. SRC Risk informatics Hydrometcentre of Russia SOI AA RI SIMULATION OF the behavior of oil spills IN THE COURSE OF OIRFP "Prirazlomnaya“ operatiOn. Assessment OF the possibility of emergency REsPONSE related to oil spills Moscow 2012

  2. Sources and Scenarios of oil spillS According to the Customer's initial data the following sources and scenarios of oil spills are to be considered: • oil spill in an open uncontrolled flowing wells – 1,500 tonsin 72 hours; • oil spill resulting from a tanker accident – 10,000 tonsin 120 hours; • oil spill resulting from temporary storage leakage of oil at the OIRFP – 16,000 tonsin 120 hours.

  3. RISK OF EMISSIONS BY ACCIDENTS AT WELLS Distribution of time needed to recover control over flowing well

  4. RISK OF OIL SPILL FROM TANKER ACCIDENT Probability of zero spills in collisions and landings tankers with deadweght of60 ,000 tons – 0.81 Revised Interim Guidelines for the Approval of Alternative Methods of Design andConstruction of Oil tankers under Regulation 13F (5) of Annex I of MARPOL 73/78 ResolutionIMOMEPC.110(49), 2003 Estimating probability of a spill with volume of 10,000 tons for tankers with a deadweight of 60,000 tons - http://efficiensea.org Average volume of spills in collisions and landings of tankers with a deadweight of 60,000 tons – 5,169tons, probability of exceedance – 8,5×10-5 Probability of spills 10,000 tons or more in collisions and landings of tankers with a deadweight of 60,000 tons – 2.5×10-5 ×(1-0.81) = 4.85×10-6

  5. OIL FEATURES According to: Oil and gas condensate in Russia. Handbook. Volume 1. Oil in European part of Russia and gas condensate in Russia. Ed. K.A. Demidenko. Moscow: Pbl.h. "Tehnika", 2000. Emissions of reservoir water is not taken into account (the initial period of operation)

  6. BASIC DATE For the calculation we used data from NCEP / NCAR reanalysis for a 10-year period from 01.01.2002 to 31.12.2011. Spatial resolution data in the platform area is ~ 12 km x 34 km, the discreteness in time is 1 hour. Calculation of the velocity fields of near-water wind was produced according to the fields of atmospheric pressure used with the processing by the method of Russian Hydrometcentre of Russia (by Popov, S., Lobov A.) on a grid of 5 * 5 nautical miles. Calculated near-water wind fields used for calculation of ocean currents in the basin of the Barents Sea. Fields of currents and wind are calculated in increments of 1 hour, each year includes about 8,000 meteorological situations. Each of the seasons, ice (January-May) and ice-free (July-November) recorded 36 240 cases. For estimates of restrictions on the responses two other sources of data on wind conditions were considered. Comparison showed a fairly high correlation between all the data.

  7. Hydrometeorological conditions (Examples) Sea level and current velocity on the surface for 15 hours of 14 July 2009 Sea level pressure and near-water wind for 15 hours of July 14, 2009

  8. Hydrological conditions (Examples) September April Ellipses of tidal currents of M2 wave at the sea surface (The color shows counter-clockwise rotation)

  9. ice conditions To consider the ice conditions we used climatic maps of ice boundaries with defined levels of cohesion. Characteristics of ice conditions in the ISM point prepared by specialists at AARI (V. Smolyanitsky and V. Stanovoy). Information about ice conditions obtained by AARI from Global data assimilation system (GDAS), operating in Global Forecast System (GFS) NCEP / NOAA (USA). Spatial resolution of the date 20 km 20 km, discretion by timeof 3 hours.

  10. OIL WEATHERING Oil spill of 16,000 tons in 5 days Oil spill of 1,500 tons in 3 days

  11. OIL WEATHERING Estimates show that changes in viscosity due to evaporation are small and make several percent (max. 4%). At the same time, the viscosity can increase about 20 times due to emulsification, taking the maximum water concentration in oil for 70%. Oil density starting with a value of 911 kg/m3, due to evaporation increases up to 1,021 kg/m3, and further, due to emulsification, goes to the turn of 1,025 kg/m3. ISM oil can have a high ability to go underwater due to a low buoyancy balance.

  12. Possible oil pollution of offshore waters and coastal waters Spill of 1,500 tonsin 3 days Ice period Non-ice period

  13. Possible oil pollution of offshore waters and coastal watersSpill of 16000 tonsin 5 days Ice period Non-ice period

  14. SPILL SPREAD RISK ZONES Spill of 1,500 tonsin 3 days, foil thickness > 10 mk Ice period Non-ice period

  15. SPILL SPREAD RISK ZONES Spill of 1,500 tonsin 3 days, foil thickness > 50 mk Ice period Non-ice period

  16. SPILL SPREAD RISK ZONES Spill of 16,000 tons in 5 days, foil thickness> 10 mk Ice period Non-ice period

  17. Probability of water areas pollution Spillof 1,500 tons in 3 days, foil thickness> 10 mk5 days Ice period Non-ice period

  18. Probability of water areas pollution Spill of 1,500 tons in 3 days, foil thickness > 10 mk10 days Ice period Non-ice period

  19. Probability of water areas pollution Spill of 16,000 tons in 5 days, foil thickness > 10 mk10 days Ice period Non-ice period

  20. Probability of coasts pollution Spill of 1,500 tons in 3 days, foil thickness > 10 mk 10 days 5 days

  21. Probability of coasts pollution Spill of 1,500 tons in 3 days, foil thickness > 50mk 10 days 5 days

  22. Probability of coasts pollution Spill of 16,000 tons in 5 days, foil thickness > 10mk 10 days 5 days

  23. Probability of coasts pollution Spill of 16000 tons in 5 days, foil thickness > 50mk 10 days 5 days

  24. CALCULATED SCENARIOS (1,500 tons/3 days, pollution of the OstrovMatveyev (Matveyev Island), 25 hours)

  25. CALCULATED SCENARIOS (1,500 tons/3 days, access to Dolgiy island, 18 hours) Quick transfer results in high dispersion

  26. CALCULATED SCENARIOS (16,000 tons/5 days, pollution of islands Matveyev and Dolgiy, 96 hours) Time to reach the coastline - 44 hours. Total length of shoreline affected 56,124 m. Mass on the shores = 235 tons Wind, m/s Current, cm/s

  27. CALCULATED SCENARIOS (16,000 tons/5 days, pollution of islands Matveyev and Dolgiy, 96 hours) Transfer dynamics Windm/s Time to reach the coastline 17 hours (islands). The total length of the affected coastline - 40 km. Oil mass on coast = 87 tons Current, cm/s

  28. CALCULATED SCENARIOS (16,000 tons/5 days, pollution of islands GulyaevskiyeKoshki, 96 hours) Time to reach the coastline 54 hours. Total length of shoreline affected 36,430 meters. Oil mass on coast = 455 t. Wind, m/s Current, cm/s

  29. CALCULATED SCENARIOS (16,000 tons/5 days, pollution of the coast Varandey, 96 hours) Time to reach the coastline 43 hours. Total length of shoreline affected 17,937 m. Oil mass on coast = 344 t. Wind, m/s Current, cm/s

  30. EXISTING AND PROPOSED PROTECTED AREAS IN THE BARENTS SEA habitat for birds and the area covered by the Ramsar Convention specially protected natural sites

  31. ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE AREAS IN THE BARENTS SEA habitat for birds coast types

  32. Spill ellimination performance statistics Elise DeCola. Review of Oil Spill Responses on Moderately-Sized Spills in US Waters from 1993-2000. NUKA Research&Planning Group, 2002

  33. Terms of responses - current The distribution of current velocity in the ice season OIRFP AREA The distribution of current velocity in the non-ice season

  34. Terms of responses - WIND Frequency of wind speed>7,5 m/s Frequency of wind speed >10m/s Frequency of wind speed>12,5 s/m

  35. Terms of responses - COMMOTION Frequency of occurrence of significant wave with height of 1.5 m The distribution functions fo significant wave height (SWH) were constructed according to the calculation of wind waves on the spectral model WaveWatch III version 3.14 [Tolman, H.L., 2009: User manual and system documentation of WAVEWATCH III version 3.14. NOAA / NWS / NCEP / MMAB Technical Note 276, 194 pp + Appendices at http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/wavewatch/]. The frequency of occurrence of significant wave height exceeding 2.5 m

  36. Terms of responses - current The frequency of flow velocity > 0.9 knots Pechora Sea The frequency of flow velocity > 1.2 knots

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