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VTEC Current Status and Future Plans

VTEC Current Status and Future Plans. Jason Tuell Office of Science and Technology Mark Tew, Herb White and Arthur Kraus Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services. Overview. Summary of VTEC activities in 2004 OT&E Results VTEC Implementation Plans for 2005 GHG Overview

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VTEC Current Status and Future Plans

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  1. VTECCurrent Status and Future Plans Jason Tuell Office of Science and Technology Mark Tew, Herb White and Arthur Kraus Office of Climate, Water and Weather Services

  2. Overview • Summary of VTEC activities in 2004 • OT&E Results • VTEC Implementation • Plans for 2005 • GHG Overview • Key Milestones • Partner participation • 10-1703 changes • Summary

  3. VTEC in 2004Summary of Activities • Delivered VTEC software to the field for operational testing • WARNGEN – short fuse convective and hydrological warnings • WWA – long fuse watches and warnings • RiverPro – hydrological warnings • Delayed testing of VTEC in four marine products to allow policy and software to be refined • GHG, Graphical Hazard Generation, software not ready for OT&E schedule • Delayed products • Offshore waters forecast, Nearshore waters forecast • Open Lakes forecast, Great Lakes forecast • Conducted OT&E 30 August – 21 October

  4. VTEC OT&E • OT&E conducted 30 August - 21 October • OT&E objectives: • Demonstrate VTEC codes and associated critical portions of the products were 95±5% error free • Demonstrate the VTEC concept of operations • Demonstrate that training on VTEC and software applications was sufficient to meet the objectives defined above • Demonstrate that VTEC quality control was implemented to insure accurate and consistent products • Demonstrate that VTEC products could be read and processed by NWS customers and parthers

  5. OT&E ResultsVTEC Product Statistics

  6. Long Fuse WarningsWWA

  7. OT&E ResultsWarnGen VTEC Product Statistics

  8. OT&E ResultsHydrology Products • Issues identified with Hydro products early in OT&E • ETN continuity for products with same phenomena and significance codes issued by different applications • By product of three different warning applications and lack of a centralized ETN database • Multiple applications used by different WFOs to generate same products • New & unique phenomena code proposed to address ETN continuity problem • Policy directive 10-922 will mandate which application will be used to generate which product • Areal flood warnings and advisories to be generated solely by WARNGEN vice WWA • Regions and partners concur

  9. OT&E ResultsWWA • Products produced by the WWA application did not meet the acceptance criteria • Forecaster workload and useability of the WWA application an issue • Offices with WWA experience generally more successful • WWA paradigm not a good fit with digital services • Errors likely in products that are infrequently issues due to complexity of software and lack of familiarity • Decision not to use WWA to implement VTEC

  10. Evaluation CriteriaAssessment

  11. OT&E Test Review GroupRecommendation • Go forward with VTEC in five WarnGen Products on 8 February (SVR, TOR, SVS, SMW and MWS) • Statistical criteria met, SVS and MWS met in final two weeks • Do not go operational with VTEC in WWA products on 8 February • Statistical criteria not met; Service Backup did not pass • OT&E sites retain experimental VTEC string “x” • Do not go operational with WBC on 8 February • Statistical criteria met for products issued (82%) • WWA software not stable • Do not go operational with VTEC in any Hydrology products (WWA, WarnGen, RiverPro) on 8 February • Descope VTEC and WBC requirements to phase in capability

  12. OT&E Decision • Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings • VTEC in short fuse convective warnings met acceptance criteria • Delay VTEC implementation in other products until software was improved, deficiencies resolved • Accelerate development of GHG, Graphical Headline Generation, to replace WWA for marine and long fuse watches and warnings • Conduct separate OT&E late Spring CY05 on remaining products that will have VTEC

  13. VTEC Implementation • 18 Z 8 Feb 2005 - VTEC implemented in short fuse convective watches and warnings • WOU Initial, • SVR - Severe Thunderstorm Warning • TOR- Tornado warning • SVS - Severe follow up statement • SMW - Special Marine Warning • MWS - Marine Weather Statement (follow up on SMW only) • VTEC introduced in products listed above during January in “.x” (Operational products with experimental VTEC line) mode • All short fuse convective products to be converted to “.o” mode (operational products with operational VTEC line) on 8 Feb

  14. Plans for 2005 • Implement VTEC in short fuse convective warnings on 8 Feb • Implement VTEC in remainder of critical watch and warning products by end of hurricane season CY05 • Replace the WWA software with GHG • Implement VTEC in the hydrology products

  15. GHG Overview • GHG = Graphical Hazards Generation • Utilize digital grids paradigm to represent hazard • Use GFEsuite software which is familiar to all WFO forecasters • Add capability to produce VTEC coding and format long-fused watch, warning, advisory ,statement and some forecast products. • Concept prototyped (without VTEC) last winter at 20 CR offices

  16. GHG

  17. VTEC 2005Test Plan Schematic GHG Risk Reduction & WBC Static Testing WARNGEN Development RiverPro Development Preliminary DT&E FSL Development GHG DT&E GHG IOT&E AWIPS OB5.1 WBC Static Re-Test VTEC OT&E Partner Notification

  18. VTEC Testing and Training • Repeat one OT&E for all VTEC products • Convergence with Hydro (WARNGEN & RiverPro) Products for testing with GHG Products. • Training • Provide additional training on VTEC concepts of operation • Provide GHG training

  19. GHGWatch By County • WBC Program Implementation will use GHG • Process is much simpler and can be validated • Work within reasonable SPC timeframe for testing • WCN becomes official with VTEC • May be able to notify earlier (separate from VTEC) date

  20. GHG PlanKey Milestones - Update • Basic GHG Training Delivered 12/15/04 • VTEC GHG Risk Reduction (RR) Testing (at NOAA”s NWSHQ) beginning 12/20/04 • Issue IFPS 17.0 GHG ATAN for WFO OT&E sites 1/26/05 • IFPS 17.0 deployment at WFO RR Sites (incl. WCN formatter) beginning 2/02/05 • WBC Static Tests w/SPC (use WFO RR sites) 2/07/05 – 2/18/05 • Fast Service Backup Capability Testing 1/31/05 – 2/18/05 • Initial GHG Development Completed Milestone 2/18/05 • GHG VTEC/WBC DT&E 3/07/05 – 3/11/05 • GHG VTEC/WBC IOT&E 3/14/05 – 3/25/05 • GHG Training Administered (OT&E sites) 3/28/05 – 5/07/05 • WBC Static Test w/SPC (regression) 4/11/05 – 4/21/05 • GHG Training Administered (remaining sites) 4/25/05 – 9/23/05 • National Deployment of Experimental WCN (IFPS 17.X) 5/18/05 – 6/30/05 • Conduct WBC Proficiency Exercises 5/23/05 – 7/30/05 • VTEC OT&E (GHG + Hydro) 5/24/05 – 7/15/05 • Corp. Decision for partner Notification 7/08/05 • OT&E Report Completed 7/29/05 • Issue PNS for National Implementation 7/11/05 • Deploy final GHG release (IFPS 17.Final - supports VTEC turn key) 8/30/05 – 10/13/05 • VTEC Turn Key 11/1/05

  21. Partner Participation • Provide feedback and evaluate impacts to NOAA’s NWS VTEC and WBC related directive changes • Will need the participation of the partners during upcoming test phases • Evaluate product compliance during GHG risk reduction exercises • IOT&E product evalaution • OT&E productr evaluation

  22. Changes to NWSI 10-1703 VTEC Directive • P-VTEC coding • Same ETN may appear in Multiple Product Segments of a given event • EXT action code will be available for Flash Flood Warning • VTEC in Routine Marine products • New Phenomena Codes • FA – Areal Flood, SW – Small Craft for Seas, BW – Brisk Wind • Tropical Cyclone Product (TCV) • Experimental in 2005 for Atlantic Basin • H-VTEC coding • Addition of NWS Location Identifier (nwsli) • Six new Immediate Cause (ic) codes added • Other Changes and additions • Valid VTEC event list added as new Appendix

  23. Summary • VTEC to be partially implemented in short fuse convective warnings 8 Feb 2005 • OT&E successful - determined what would and wouldn’t work in an operational setting • GHG software development accelerated to replace WWA • Second VTEC OT&E to be conducted late spring 2005 • VTEC implementation in remaining products by end of hurricane season 2005

  24. Back Up Slides

  25. GHG Testing Roadmap • Preliminary GHG DT&E (12/20/04 – 1/28/05) • Subset list of products validated (WSW,NPW,WCN,SPS) • GHG VTEC Limited Site Test (begin 2/02/05) • Backup pairs from each region (PR will use WES) • Provides test of infrastructure (service backup, Action Table) • Provides discovery period prior to OT&E (risk reduction) • WBC Static and Service Backup Testing with SPC • GHG DT&E (3/7 – 3/11/05) • Test all product formatters and software after development period • GHG IOT&E (3/14 – 3/25/05) • Use realistic scenarios with field forecasters at test facility • Identify and categorize issues • WBC Static and Service Backup Regression Testing (4/11 – 4/21/05) • Re-test end-to-end WOU to WCN generation after software upgrades • GHG and Hydro VTEC OT&E (5/24 – 7/15/05) • Additional OT&E sites added to initial group • Corp Decision for notification message (7/08/05)

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