Causal Arguments

1. CausalArguments Why did this happen? What if?

2. What does it examine? • Causal argument underlies two of the most common, challenging, and difficult questions we confront in our lives: “Why?” and “What if?” • When paleontologists consider the reasons why dinosaurs became extinct, when historians debate the causes of a war, when environmentalists speculate on the effects of pollution, and when psychologists study the effects of racism, they are working in the realm of causal argument. • That is, they are examining the complex process by which people, forces, events, and other phenomena interact to bring about other phenomena.

3. Causal argument is by its very nature highly speculative and prone to mistakes. Part of the difficulty, as any scientist can attest, lies in isolating variables. • In other words, when examining the many factors that may have caused an event to occur or the many effects that may be traced back to a cause, we must be careful to determine exactly which ones really are valid.

4. Strengthen your arguments with: • Use analogy: A caused B in this instance because a similar A caused a similar B in another instance. • Go after the deeper meaning. That means read critically. Check the writer’s tone. • Check your facts and interpret facts carefully. • When using sources, check the source’s credibility, check the source’s timeliness. Look for things most recently published.

5. Writing a causal argument • 1. Examine the causes or consequences of an interesting or puzzling event, action, trend or phenomenon (for example: "Why does America still love beauty pageants?"). or • 2. Speculate on the consequences of an event, action, or trend (for example: "What would happen if professors stopped giving grades at your university?")

6. Before you begin, Consider the following questions: • 1. What topic have you chosen to write about? Why? • 2. What is your claim? Summarize the reasons you will use to support this causal relationship. • 3. What evidence will you use in your essay? • 4. How will you deal with opposing views?

7. Basic requirements: • Write a two- to three-page (600-800 word) essay that persuades an audience to accept your explanation of the causes of a trend, event, or other phenomenon. • Within your essay you should examine alternative explanations or opposing views and present your reasons for rejecting them. • You can frame your issue as either a puzzle or a disagreement. • If a puzzle, treat your audience as neutral: they have no prior answer to your causal question in mind. • If a disagreement, consider your audience hostile: they endorse a causal explanation different from the one you will present.

8. Fallacies of logic • Faulty causation is the logical fallacy associated most with causal arguments. This is also known as post hoc fallacy. • In this fallacy, someone identifies two phenomena and determines that they have a causal relationship because one happened before the other. • Do NOT use this logic!

9. Examples • "My child received his vaccination (cause), and a couple of weeks later he started showing signs of autism (effect).” • "My team keeps on winning (effect) as long as I wear my lucky socks (cause).” • How do you know if two phenomena actually have a causal relationship?

10. Types of evidence: • Experimental evidence: • Experiments are designed to isolate factors and determine if one really does cause the other. Formal experiments are deductive: they start with a hypothesis (ex: Thimerosalcauses autism) and systematically test that hypothesis to prove or disprove it. Experimental evidence yields a high degree of certainty.

11. Comparative evidence • Comparisons can be highly effective when experiments cannot be conducted. • For instance, comparative studies in which the rate of birth defects is examined in the children of military personnel deployed to the Persian Gulf vs. deployed elsewhere. The studies show no difference -- and therefore no effect to investigate. • Comparative studies can yield a high degree of certainty as well, though not as high as well designed experiments. Comparative studies can be either deductive or inductive.

12. Anecdotal evidence • Unlike the other two, anecdotal evidence is not systematically collected or analyzed. It tends to come from sets of testimonies in which people note similar patterns. • For instance, if many parents notice that their children developed autism shortly after taking vaccines, they might form a hypothesis about a causal link. • Anecdotal evidence tends to be inductive: it starts with general observations and develops a hypothesis that explains them. • Anecdotal evidence does not yield a high level of probability, but it does generate hypotheses that can then be tested out with other methods.

13. Essay Timeline • February 7 – Intro Essay • Monday February 13 - Conferences • Tuesday February 14 - Conferences • Friday February 17 – Smart Thinking Draft Due in Class • February 20 – Essay due in the dropbox!