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OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS IN HURRICANES ISIDORE AND LILI (2002)

Explore the crucial role of the upper ocean in hurricane intensity changes using data acquired from Isidore and Lili hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. Improve predictive models by examining ocean heat content and vertical mixing processes.

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OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS IN HURRICANES ISIDORE AND LILI (2002)

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  1. OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS IN HURRICANES ISIDORE AND LILI (2002) MPO, RSMAS, Univ. of Miami NSF ATM-01-08218, NOAA JHT

  2. Acknowledgments: • Capt. Bob Maxson and Dr. Jim McFadden (AOC) and the entire staff (pilots, engineers, technicians). • Dr. Frank Marks (NOAA-HRD) for his continued support and HRD staff. • Dr. Steve Nelson (NSF-Dynamic Mesoscale Meteorology Program) for his continued support. • Dr. Russell Elsberry and the USWRP for recognizing the importance of the upper ocean on TC intensity issues. • Mr. Tom Cook and Dr. S. Daniel Jacob (UMBC) • Mr. Eric Uhlhorn, Cmdr. Sean White, Mr. Scott Guhin, Mr. Mike McGauley, Mr. Mike Black, and Mr. Robbie Berg.

  3. Introduction: Long-term goal of the research is to understand the role of the upper ocean on hurricane intensity changes. Oceanic Heat Content (based on seasonal climatology and radar altimetry) improves predictive intensity models (i.e. SHIPS)-now part of the operational data stream (DeMaria et al. 2002, 2004; Mainelli et al. 2002; Mainelli and Shay 2004). Not the full story-OHC is modulated by vertical mixing processes through vertical current shear. Since 84, Only 6 Storms where Vertical Current Shear has been measured from AXCPs. Overview of Isidore and Lili data set acquired from AXCPs and AXCTDs and the GPS sondes prior, during and subsequent to their passage in the Gulf of Mexico. Relevant to modeling here at NCEP.

  4. Challenge: Getting the current and shear correct in models for mixing.

  5. Conceptual Model: GOM

  6. SST Response

  7. Oceanic Heat Content: Relative to 26C

  8. 2002 Summary: Isidore and Lili GPS/AXBT/AXCP/AXCTDs From 42/43

  9. Hurricane Isidore Pre-Storm, Storm, Post-Storm:AXCP/AXCTD/AXBTs

  10. Hurricane Isidore Radar and Scatterometer

  11. SST (left panels) and OHC (right panels) for Pre-Isidore (upper) and Post-Isiidore (lower) Relative to Storm Intensity. (SSTs processed by RSMAS Remote Sensing Laboratory).

  12. Pre-Post Isidore SST and OHC

  13. Hurricane Lili Pre-Storm, Storm, Post-Storm:AXCP/AXCTD/AXBTs

  14. Hurricane Lili Radar and Scatterometer

  15. 43 Lili In Storm: Gulf of MexicoRapid Deepening Cycle!

  16. SST (left panels) and OHC (right panels) for Pre-Lili (upper) and Post-Lili (lower) Relative to Storm Intensity. (SSTs processed by RSMAS Remote Sensing Laboratory).

  17. Buoy 42001 Measurements(from White and Shay 2004)

  18. GPS sondes During the Lili’s Relative to Intensity and Track. G-IV (Left panel), P-3 (Right panels)

  19. Theta_e/Wind Variability at 24N

  20. Pre-Post Lili SST and OHC

  21. Hurricane Lili Post-Storm AXCP Transect at 2Rmax

  22. Lili’s Wind Field from HWIND Relative To Gridded Domain

  23. Pre-Storm OHC and Depth of 26oC Isotherm

  24. Pre- and Post OML Temperatures

  25. Post-Storm OML and Thermocline Currents

  26. Normalized OHC Change Versus Shear2 Production:

  27. Hurricane Lili 2 Oct 02

  28. Hurricane Lili 2 Oct 02: Fluxes

  29. Pre-Storm OHC Satellite and In Situ Measurements

  30. Ocean Profiles From EPAC, GOM, and LC based on AXCTDs.

  31. Challenge: Fully Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model

  32. Comparison of Mixing Schemes in HYCOM During the Passage of Gilbert.

  33. HYCOM North Atlantic HYCOM at 0.08° resolution extending from 28° S to 70° N. 26 levels/ layers in the vertical. High resolution surface forcing from FNMOC with Salinity relaxation at the surface. 3° buffer zones in the north and south relaxed to climatology. Satellite altimeter surface height anomalies from the MODAS operational system at NAVOCEANO (Initial Fields Are Important!). Mean Sea Surface Height from the 0.08° Atlantic MICOM. Vertical projection of surface height signature using the Cooper-Haines (1996) technique. Sea Surface Temperature not assimilated at present.

  34. Summary: Best Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set Ever Acquired During TC Passage! Successful set of experiments due to the teamwork between NSF and NOAA-unique opportunity during a rapid deepening cycle. Vertical current shear modulates SST/OHC variability and heat fluxes, and must be measured more frequently (T(z) is NOT enough). Improve satellite algorithms for OHC/SHIPS Forecasting of TC and Oceanic component of models at Operational Centers (NCEP). Data set will contribute to several MS/PhD studies (Uhlhorn, White, Guhin, McGauley).

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