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Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity

Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity. What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? What are the most important climate drivers? What is the role of disturbance in moderating ecosystem response to climate variation?

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Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity

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  1. Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity • What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? • What are the most important climate drivers? • What is the role of disturbance in moderating ecosystem response to climate variation? • How does sensitivity to climate variation differ among species? • How do boreal ecosystems respond to climatic conditions outside the range of observed variability?

  2. What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? ` Cool dry warm dry Cooling moist warm <dry warm moist Increasing moisture Dry dry moist moist Cool warm cooling modern Years B.P. (based on Edwards et al. 2001, Mann et al. 2002, Hu et al. 2001)

  3. P. Mariana expansion “modern” boreal forest Alnus expansion P.glauca zone Populus zone What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response?

  4. What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response?

  5. What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? (From Bigelow and Edwards 2001)

  6. Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity • What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? • Substantial climate variation during Holocene • Three major vegetation transitions • Unknowns: rate of transitions, significance of high-frequency variation.

  7. What are the most important climatic drivers?

  8. What are the most important climatic drivers?

  9. Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity • What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? • What are the most important climate drivers? • Moisture

  10. What is the role of disturbance?

  11. Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity • What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? • What are the most important climate drivers? • What is the role of disturbance in moderating ecosystem response to climate variation? • Few studies with enough resolution to disentangle climate/veg/disturbance but… • Preliminary evidence suggests climate --> veg --> fire

  12. How does sensitivity to climate vary among species?

  13. How does sensitivity to climate vary among species?

  14. Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity • What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? • What are the most important climate drivers? • What is the role of disturbance in moderating ecosystem response to climate variation? • How does sensitivity to climate variation differ among species? • Black spruce: low sensitivity? • White spruce: high sensitivity?

  15. How do boreal ecosystems respond to climatic conditions outside the range of observed variability? (From Edwards et al. 2005)

  16. Paleo-perspectives on climate sensitivity • What are the patterns of climate variation and ecosystem response? • What are the most important climate drivers? • What is the role of disturbance in moderating ecosystem response to climate variation? • How does sensitivity to climate variation differ among species? • How do boreal ecosystems respond to climatic conditions outside the range of observed variability? • Non-analog ecosystems

  17. Future directions… • Examine time slices with large changes in climate: what, if any, was the vegetation response? • 9000 BP increase in moisture • Early Holocene rapid warming • Examine time slices with ‘abrupt’ vegetation change. • Explore fine-scale variation in abundance as it relates to climate variation

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