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Risk Assessment for Chemical Disasters

Risk Assessment for Chemical Disasters. A Presentation by P.S. Dutt Scientist and Head, BDU NEERI, Nagpur. National Training Course on Chemical Disaster Management, NIDM, New Delhi August 16-20, 2010. Chemical Hazard: Characteristics. Manmade and technological disasters

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Risk Assessment for Chemical Disasters

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  1. Risk Assessment for Chemical Disasters A Presentation by P.S. Dutt Scientist and Head, BDU NEERI, Nagpur National Training Course on Chemical Disaster Management, NIDM, New Delhi August 16-20, 2010

  2. Chemical Hazard: Characteristics • Manmade and technological disasters • Prevention and control is possible • At design, operations and post operations • Chemical hazards and emergencies • Manufacture, storage, transportation , handling, waste management • Chemicals in environment vs chemicals and development Aim is to enhance intrinsic safety of chemical plant design & operations

  3. Hazards and consequences • Hazards (Fires, explosions and toxic releases) • Flammability • Reactivity • Toxicity • Corrosivity • Causes • Design • Operations • Human error • Consequences • Loss of life and injury • Loss to Plant & Machinery • Onsite and offsite • Environmental damage

  4. Past Accidents • Flixborough, UK (June 1, 1974) Due to a rupture of bypass assembly, about 80 tonnes of hot liquid cyclohexane (at 155o C and 8 bar pressure) escaped at sonic velocity forming thick clouds as big as football pitch which exploded within a minute of the rupture. The intensity of explosion was equivalent to 30 tonnes of TNT. It wrecked the total works and main office block and damaged property within a radius of 5 km. 28 persons working in the control room were killed and more than 100 persons were injured including those in off-site area. • Bhopal, India (December 2, 1984) Due to a leak of toxic MIC gas, more than 2500 persons died and several thousand injured. In the long term, about 16,000 people died as a result of exposure to the gas. More than 5 lakh claims for injuries and losses were recorded.

  5. Past Accidents • Visakhapatnam, India (September 14, 1997) Due to a leak from a flange of a pipeline while unloading LPG from a tanker to refinery LPG sphere, a vapour cloud was formed in the early hours which led to the explosion of LPG sphere at 6.40 AM. As a result of this explosion, 5 LPG spheres in the tank farm (of 7 LPG spheres), 3 petroleum product tanks of the refinery and 11 petroleum product storage tanks in the adjoining marketing terminal were caught fire. Three buildings of the refinery including control room were collapsed. The pressure wave damage was widespread and extended up to Air Port Control Tower. About 1 lakh people were panic stricken. The fire was extinguished after two days.

  6. Current Scenario

  7. Purpose of Models • To represent facts and reality objectively • To analyse logically and systematically all relevant facts • To build confidence by presenting quantitative assessment and accuracy • To provide meaningful insights under varying scenarios in accordance with considered view of human/public perception • To serve as handy tools for effective decision making

  8. Characteristics of Models • Several assumptions • Scientific – deterministic/probabilistic/fuzzy • Empirical – facts and event driven • Accurate data and information driven • Uncertainty • Range of models for specific needs • Modelling systems and softwares • Location specific models – GIS based • Expert systems • Online and offline systems

  9. Models for CHM • Pre-disaster planning • Hazard identification • Chemical/process/operation • Fire/Explosion/Toxic release/combination • Consequence analysis • Loss to property/Risk evaluation/environmental decay • Emergency planning • Loss prevention • Training • Post-disaster planning • Accident investigation • Review of procedures • Learning

  10. Models for Risk Assessment

  11. Models for Risk Assessment

  12. Meteorological Scenarios

  13. Options for LPG Storage

  14. Results of Risk Analysis

  15. Conclusions • Chemical plants and installations are a necessity for development • Safety and environment concerns warrant safe design of chemical plants • Emergency preparedness needs scientific basis to plan for onsite and offsite • Models and risk assessment provide tools to enhance inherent safety of design and containment thereby mitigation of accidents • Risk assessment (PRA/QRA) is inexpensive and effective when compared to losses due to accidents • Training and development of qualified personnel is the need of the hour

  16. Thank You

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