Yoram Haftel Department of Political Science University of Illinois at Chicago yhaftel@uic

1. Action Speaks Louder than Words: Variation in Regional Integration Arrangements and Violent Conflict Yoram Haftel Department of Political Science University of Illinois at Chicago yhaftel@uic.edu IPES Inaugural Conference Princeton University, November 17-18, 2006

2. The Puzzle • Regional conflict and war are persistent problems and have intensified in recent decades • economic regionalism is a prominent feature of contemporary international politics. Mitigating violent conflict is an important goal of Regional Integration Arrangements (RIAs) • RIAs neither created equal nor equally successful in meeting their stated objective • How variation in the institutionalization of RIAs affect their ability to reduce regional violent conflict?

3. The Argument (in Brief) • Higher levels of regional institutionalization result in fewer intra-regional violent disputes • Lack of information on capabilities and resolve lead to violent conflict • Greater regional institutionalization provides a richer set of costly signals of intentions • Greater regional institutionalization fosters the exchange of reliable information on interests and resolve • Greater regional institutionalization facilitates a peaceful resolution of disputes

4. Measuring Regional Institutionalization • Institutional design (30 “dummy” indicators) • The “Balassa” indicators • Foreign investment • Policy harmonization and sectoral cooperation • Bargaining power • Decisionmaking, bureaucracy, DSM • Implementation • Low (0); Medium (0.5); and High (1)

5. Research Design • Regional level of analysis • 25 RIAs in the 1980s and 1990s every five years (90 observations) • Random-effects Negative Binomial Model • Dependent variable: the number of intra-regional MIDs • Independent variables: • Designed regional institutionalization • Implemented regional institutionalization • (A host of) control variables

6. Summary of Results

7. Qualitative Large-N Analysis • Estimate the baseline “prospects” for conflict • Compare RIAs with similar baseline potential for conflict and different levels of regional institutionalization • Expectation: within each group higher levels of institutionalization should be associated with a lower number of MIDs • Allows a more fine-grained comparison of individual RIAs

8. The Baseline Prospects for Conflict Low potential for conflict Intermediate potential for conflict Very High potential for conflict

9. Conclusion • Regional institutionalization, when implemented, mitigates violent conflict – action speaks louder than words! • High levels of regional institutionalization have the most pronounced impact in regions with intermediate potential for conflict • High institutionalized RIAs are redundant in regions with low potential of conflict and ineffective in regions with very high potential for conflict.

10. Coding Rules for Designed Regional Institutionalization

11. Random-effects negative-binomial estimates of the effect of designed regional institutionalization on Intra-Regional MIDs, 1982-2001

12. Random-effects negative-binomial estimates of the effect of implemented regional institutionalization on Intra-Regional MIDs, 1982-2001

13. Random-effects negative-binomial estimates of the effect of implemented regional institutionalization on Intra-Regional MIDs, 1982-2001, extensions to the basic model

14. Substantive interpretation of the effects of significant independent variables on the expected count of militarized interstate disputes