Week 12: Evaluating Emerging Technology Trends

1. Week 12: Evaluating Emerging Technology Trends MIS 2101

2. Emerging Technologies • Science-based innovations that have the potential to create a new industry or transform an existing one. • They include • Discontinuous innovations • Evolutionary technologies Definition and issues extracted from George Day and Paul Schoemaker – Avoiding the Pitfalls of Emerging Technologies, California Management Review, v42-2, Winter 2000)

3. Emerging Technologies - Examples. .. • Discontinuous Technologies • Micro Robots • Holograms • Evolutionary Technologies • Wireless networking • The Internet • Virtual reality

4. The need to evaluate emerging technologies, infrastructures, and trends • Defense of business • Significant potential return But --- Opportunities for new entrants may equate to risks for existing companies

5. Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for New Technologies (2002) Source – Gartner Group 2002 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle Alexander Linder, Jackie Fenn 23 May 2002

6. Gartner Group’s Hype Cycle for New Technologies (2006)

7. Gartner Group Hype Cycle Acronyms • 4G – 4th Generation • ASP - Application Service Provider • BPM – Business Process Management • p2P – Peer to Peer • RFID – Radio Frequency Identification • SOA – Service Oriented Architecture • WiMax - Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access • XBRL – Extensible Business Reporting Language

8. Bluetooth – Wifi – WiMax – Cellular Services • Bluetooth -- A low power, low range technology which connects devices. • Wifi – Local high speed wireless technology replaces wired local area networks • WiMax – Point to multi-point wireless networking – A wireless replacement to high speed wired connections to service providers. Can be cellular. • 3G – A cellular capability which can provide medium speed voice and data connections Sources: http://www.wirelessis.com/WirelessIs...WiMAX.pdf http://www.rh.edu/~rhb/cs_seminar_2005/SessionB3/ribeiro.pdf http://www.wimaxforum.org/technology/downloads/WiMAX-The_Business_Case-Rev3.pdf

9. Bluetooth • Ad-hoc networking. (No hub or switch required.) Automatic configuration. • Can be used to connect cell phones to PDAs, computers to printers, cell phones to headsets, etc.

10. Wifi • Wired local area network replacement • Optimized for indoor or short range solutions • Uses a wireless switch • Designed for 1- 10 users/ base station • Normally does not have cellular capabilities

11. WiMax (Worldwide Interoperability of Microwave Access) • Fundamentally the same technology as Wifi but with much larger coverage area • Optimized for outdoor use • Base stations support more users than Wifi (up to 500) • Can be cellular

12. 3G cellular • Outdoor or indoor • High mobility • Slower than Wifi and Wimax

13. Technologies compared NLOS --- Line of sight not required LOS --- Line of sight requires MBS --- million bits/second * Has cellular capabilities

14. Bluetooth in East Japan Railway Company Green (First Class) Cars • The attendant uses a PDA-like device when collecting green car tickets. • The device uses Bluetooth to send the passenger’s seat and destination to a receiver in the car. • The car displays a green signal above the seat. • When the train leaves the paid zone, the signal automatically changes to red. • The passenger can also pay by touching their SUICA (Super Urban Intelligent) RFID card to a panel in the car. This also turns the signal to green in the paid zone.

15. Convergence Telephone Cable TV Telephone Internet Service Television Distribution

16. Convergence • Video, computing, and telephony • Paper and computer displays • High definition television (HDTV) is really a computer • Computers can receive and process TV Example: Windows XP Media Center edition can operate as a TiVo. TiVo homepage http://www.tivo.com Windows XP Media Center homepage http://www.microsoft.com/windowsxp/mediacenter/

17. Nanotechnology • A field of science whose goal is to control individual atoms and molecules to create computer chips and other devices that are thousands of times smaller than current technologies permit. • . . . new technologies that juggle individual atoms . . . Source: http://www.webopedia.com/TERM/n/nanotechnology.html

18. Nanotechnology and Computers • Current computer chips created by lithography. • Result of nanotechnology: Very small devices, much faster computers • Molecules acting as switches • Current status: Storage density 10 times that of current silicon memory chips • Applications also include medical devices. Why is it necessary to reduce the size of computer chips to make them faster? Nanotechnology reference (including a good introduction): http://www.zyvex.com/nano/ Good article on current status: http://www.industryweek.com/CurrentArticles/Asp/articles.asp?ArticleId=1425

19. Nanotechnology example: Electronic paper • Microscopic display particles imbedded in plastic. • Has the look and feel of paper. • Can be used to create a newspaper which constantly changes based on a feed from your PDA or other device. Source: TOMORROW'S PAPER-THIN SCREEN GEMS,  By: Kharif, Olga, Business Week Online, 6/20/2002

20. The world’s smallest abacus Formed by carbon molecules comprised of 60 atoms each. Find out how it was built at: http://www.chem.ucla.edu/dept/Faculty/gimzewski/id4.htm

21. A molecular gear using similar technology Source: NASA Nanotechnology Gallery http://www.ipt.arc.nasa.gov/gallery.html Contributors: Jie Han, Al Globus, Richard Jaffe, and Glenn Deardorff

22. Appliances: Mobile Computing • Wireless Lans • Cellular services • 2G (second generation) – Digital services – usually limited to 15,000 – 20,000 bps • 3G (third generation) – Digital services – usually limited to 384,000 bps (limited availability resulting from infrastructure costs)

23. Appliances – Pervasive computing • Devices containing small computers • A car is a terminal • Automobiles that monitor themselves and report conditions to car service facilities • Integrated Global Positioning and computing • Watches, microwaves, phones, refrigerators, stereos

24. Appliances – Pervasive computing • Current technology can provide significant miniaturization • Match-head sized web server --- a complete Internet Protocol server • Can be used by devices to report on status and for control Source: http://www-ccs.cs.umass.edu/~shri/ipic.html

25. Platform independent computer programs • Java, C# and other languages • Write-once, run anywhere • A compiled program can be run on any computer with the Runtime Environment • Java: “Java virtual machine” • Microsoft .net C#: “Runtime” • How? A compiled Java program is a series of generic statements • Interpreted line-by-line at runtime on the client

26. How It Works (Java example)from (http://java.sun.com/nav/whatis/index.html) 1) A compiled Java program is delivered to the client (e.g., over the Internet) 2) The (platform-specific) Java Virtual Machine interprets the statements and sends them to the Operating System 3) The Operating System carries out the statements 4) The computer displays the interactive application

27. Platform Independence • Same application running on • a Cell Phone • a Windows computer

28. XML and Web Services • Previously discussed. • No longer an emerging technology, but a significant trend. • A mechanism for integration of old computer applications. • Makes industry “peer to peer” applications possible. • But industry content standards are necessary. • Potential significant impact to intermediaries.

29. Immersive Virtual Reality Illusion of full immersion in an artificial world. • Head-referenced viewing • Stereoscopic • Full scale presentation • Detection of head, hand (etc) positioning through head gear, gloves, etc. • Interaction with virtual objects Text and images extracted from: http:/www-vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html (Except where noted)

30. Virtual Reality DevicesHead Mounted Displays • Two miniature screens and an optical system with head motion tracking • Newest displays use a laser to paint images directly on retinas Source: http:/www-vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html Source: http:/www.microvision.com

31. Virtual Reality DevicesCave Automated Virtual Environment • Developed at the University of Illinois at Chicago • Projects stereo images on the walls of a room • Participants wear 3d glasses Source: http://www.vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html

32. Shared Virtual Environments • Users in different locations • Meet in the same virtual world and collaborate Source: http://www-vrl.umich.edu/intro/index.html

33. Immersive Virtual Environments: Virtual conferencing • The most advanced prototypes: • Sense participants facial and hand positions to generate images by analyzing television images. • Adjust perspective as a participants head moves. • Transmit position information and generates an image of the remote participant and “room” in 3D • Incorporate 3D viewing without glasses • Enables multi-point video conferencing Reference: Proceedings of Vision, Video, and Graphics 2003 Conference, The Eurographics Association, June 2003 ISBN3-905673-54-1 Currently experimental. If this is successful, will any existing companies be threatened?

34. 3D and Virtual Reality – additional features • Images constructed from real and computer generated objects in the same view (Augmented reality) • Mouse-less pointing devices

35. Augmented Reality Demonstration: Chess Source: http://ligwww.epfl.ch/~rtorre/tracking_results.html

36. Augmented Reality DemonstrationTracking Source: http://ligwww.epfl.ch/~rtorre/tracking_results.html

37. And . . . Source: http://ligwww.epfl.ch/~rtorre/tracking_results.html

38. Applications • Medical Visualization • Improved vision for pilots and drivers • Military visualization Others?

39. And . . . • Speech recognition with text parsing . . . • 90%+ accuracy • may improve remote access • don't expect people to continue to use voice response as it is now • NEC has been testing Speech to Speech translation using Microsoft Pocket PCs. • Combines recognition, text parsing, translation, and speech synthesis. • Prototype units at Narita airport shops and the World Cup --- Summer 2003. • Japanese => English and English => Japanese • Source: http://www.necca.com.au/About/Press_full.asp?CID=1&PID=39

40. And --- • Commercially available 3d scene capture devices www.3rdtech.com • 3D volumetric displays www.lightspacetech.com • 3d printers www.zcorp.com • Narrowcasting – focused Internet TV http://www.nytimes.com/2007/06/05/technology/05joost.html?_r=1&oref=slogin • The WiiMote http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wii

41. And . . . • Service Integration • Call centers and Internet • Security will change • New methods of authentication including biometrics (e.g. iris scanning instead of subway/train tickets) • Regulatory and privacy issues

42. And . . . • What is missing from the list? • Can you think of potential applications for the technologies?

43. The New and Emerging Technologies Assignment • Pick a technology from the list in the assignment • Find and read references on the technology • Prepare a short presentation • Present to the class (10 minutes)

44. The Presentation • What is the technology and what does it do? • Business drivers – Why would someone use it and for what? • When will it be ready for use? (Key Risks.) • Technologies it may replace. • Companies or industries which use it (if any) and for what? Are they successful? • Is it a threat to an existing company or industry? If so what company or industry? • Your evaluation--- Will it be successful? Why?

45. Where to find information on technologies • The Internet • Google • http://www.webopedia.com • Gartner Group Research • http://www.temple.edu/gartner • You must be on campus to use Gartner or (off campus) use your Temple Account and the proxy setting on your browser • Select the search option in the lower left of the screen to search for articles on a specific topic

46. Using the Temple Proxy • Select Tools/Internet Options in your Browser • Click the Connections tab • Click the Lan settings button • Check the “Use a proxy server” box • Enter gate.temple.edu as the address and 8080 as the port. • Click OK • You will be asked for your temple email id and password when you access a restricted web page • When you are through with the proxy, go back to lan settings and uncheck “Use a proxy server”

47. library.temple.edu Instructions for connecting outside Temple can be found here • From library.temple.edu, select Find Articles • Then select Full-Text Research Databases • Select Academic Search Premier or Business Source Premier

48. library.temple.edu • Enter a phrase from the title of the article • Select “Full text“ • Enter a date range (optional)

49. Articles • For example, the search on the last slide was for Project Initiation • Select HTML Full Text or PDF Full Text • PDF Full Text requires an Adobe Acrobat Reader to view the document (available free from www.adobe.com)

50. Preparing the Presentation • Instructions are in the assignment • You decide on the number of slides • Use PowerPoint • Be sure to fully reference any material you use --- especially quoted material. Be sure you do not plagiarize. • Avoid large scale cutting and pasting from articles