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Public Opinion and Public Policy

Explore the definition, measurement, and connection of public opinion to policy outcomes in democratic systems, emphasizing the complexities and challenges faced. Discusses various research methods, elements influencing public opinion, and the impact of parties and elites. Examines the relationship between elite and mass opinions on issues like gun control, along with manipulation and framing of public preferences by elites and media. Covers national and subnational research findings, implications for policy adoption, and the role of direct democracy on public opinion.

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Public Opinion and Public Policy

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  1. Public Opinion and Public Policy Don Haider-MarkelUniversity of Kansas May-June 2005

  2. Understanding Public Opinion • What do we mean by public opinion? • Many definitions • Perhaps best understood as “the aggregated beliefs or preferences of a population at a given point in time” • Most often in the context of candidate support, political issues, and public policy

  3. How do we measure public opinion? • Elections: France and the EU constitution • Constituency input • Knowledge of politicians and activists • Historical patterns and culture • Population demographics • Party support: registration and identification • Survey research based on random samples

  4. In Practice • All of these methods are used • Vary in terms of being good indicators • Surveys/polls not always the best • Problems with surveys • Opinion may be surface level • Underlying beliefs/values • Intensity • Opinion only exists when asked

  5. Connecting Opinion to Policy • In a democratic political system we tend to believe this is automatic • Campaigns, elections, policymaking • But forms of government, institutions, and rules confound the connection • Candidates and parties • Measurement: Majority opinion versus simple change or shift in opinion • Level of measurement: district, state,nation

  6. The Research: National • Most prevalent • Strong link when significant opinion change over time (Page and Shapiro 1983) • Laws, policy proposals, even court decisions • More problematic: opinions on some issues show majority support,but policy inconsistent • These are the areas where the simple aggregation of opinion becomes problematic

  7. The Research: National • Additional Elements • Issue Attention • Public and Institutions • As one institution pays more attention to an issue, others may follow • Media can be important • Media can also focus attention on one dimension of an issue versus another

  8. The Research: National • Additional Elements: Importance of Parties • One Example: Gun Control • Public opinion • Public policy not congruent • Issue Evolution/Party Realignment • Three components • Issue is salient • Elites are divided • Masses are divided

  9. Granger Causality Between Elite and Mass Opinion • ______________________________________________________________________________ • Elite Democrats on Gun-Control---- 28.0596 Mass Democrats on • (.0000) Gun-Control • Mass Democrats on Gun-Control---- 4.5109 Elite Democrats on • (.0242) Gun-Control • ______________________________________________________________________________ • Elite Republicans on Gun-Control---- 5.6181 Mass Republicans on • (.0116) Gun-Control • Mass Republicans on Gun-Control---- .4313 Elite Republicans on • (.6556) Gun-Control • ______________________________________________________________________________ • Note: Numbers are F statistics with probabilities in parenthesis. The arrows indicate possible Granger causal relationships. The number of observations for each issue is: gun control issues 25. Results are similar from one to five year lags.

  10. The Research: National • Additional Elements • Opinion Manipulation: can we ever be confident that citizen preferences are true and not the result of elite manipulation? • Issue Framing: Elites and Media • Thus, congruence might simply be the result of elites influencing the preferences of the public • Stone, Riker, Zaller

  11. The Research: Subnational • Congressional Districts • Traditional models: constituency characteristics and roll call voting (1960s forward) • Strong links in this research • Simulated opinion measures (1970s) • Interest group measures?

  12. The Research: Subnational • State and Local Level • Traditionally matching demographics of the population to policy adoption • 1980s forward: increasingly better measures of state opinion; but general measures work well • Erikson,Wright, and McIver • Norrander; Norrander and Wilcox • Brace et al. • Every year more refined measures • Recent research finds little change in general ideology over time in the states; coincides with demographic changes • City and County: few polls, but demographic models work well

  13. Additional Issues • Direct Democracy and Public Opinion • Work of Gerber • Conflicting research • Tyranny of the Majority • Protecting and respecting minorities • Gamble, Donovan and Bowler, among others • Example of U.S. Senate

  14. Final Thoughts • Fairly consistent findings • Institutional design sometimes thwarts majority preferences • Not always a bad thing • Can design institutions to better reflect opinion • Awareness of the problems in measuring opinion

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