Eco-Housing in Asia and the Pacific Region

1. Eco-Housing in Asia and the Pacific Region Regional Training Programme on the Design of Eco-house 8-12 August 2005

2. Population Asia & Pacific • Nearly two-thirds of world population growth is in Asia • Nearly 50 million peoples are being added to Asia every year

3. Population • Projected population in Asia: 4.88 billion by 2030 Source: World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

4. Urbanization • Asia will have an urban population of 2.6 billion by 2030 Asia Growing urban proportion 54% (2.6 billion) 37% (1.4 billion) Urban Population (Millions) 24% Source: World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision

5. GDP Growth Forecast 2003-2015 6.0 3.1 3.1 2.3 • The global economy is expected to grow at 3.1% during the 2002-2015 • Asian economy is projected to be growing at 6% during the same period Source: Global Economic Prospects 2003, World Bank

6. Emerging Middle Class Middle class (million) based on the number of people who can buy automobiles • 60s and 70s: if a Chinese person wanted to buy a bicycle, he had to save for a few years • Now: for some middle class families, it would only take 2 to 3 years to save and buy a car

7. Growing Service Sector Share of service sector in global economy Projections 60% 38%

8. Urban vs. Rural: Energy Consumption

9. Emissions from mobile source Europe USA & Canada Asia SO2 emissions2 Mobile sources are the major emitters of NOx,CO, particulates, and HC, and in addition contribute to SOx, lead and CO2. 110 million tons 80 million tons Mobile sources contribution in Shanghai1 CO HC NOx Current 75% 93% 44% 2010 94% 98% 75% (million metric tons per year) Source: 1. SEI (2003); 2. www.wri.org

10. Impacts of Air Pollution at Different Scales Global Regional Urban Indoor

11. Health impacts of air pollution Regional air pollution Urban air pollution Indoor air pollution Scale of health impacts

12. Health Costs of Air Pollution • Asia1 • An estimated 487,000 premature deaths occur each year due to outdoor air pollution. • China2 • Environmental and health costs of air pollution in China is about 7 % of GDP [budget deficit in 2003 = 3.3% of GDP]5 • Estimates shows that these costs could rise to 13% of China’s GDP by 2020 • Bangkok • Health cost of air pollution • $640 million • $800 million by 2020 Economic Implications of Health Impacts4 Bangkok Exposed to diesel exhaust6 Exposed to clean air6 Source: 1. WHO(2002); 2. State of the World 2003, World Watch Institute; 4. URBAIR project; 5. UN, 2004; 6: NIES, www.nies.go.jp

13. Costs of Air Pollution Air pollution is becoming a major health threat in Asian cities “An estimated 487,000 premature deaths in Asia occur each year due to outdoor air pollution”1 “ A total of 3,547 persons were killed in international terrorist attacks in 2001”2 1. WHO (2002);2. USDoS(2002)

14. Impact: water quantity 2003 Increasing supply to cities 105 million tons grain short fall (largest in the record) Increasing temperature Decreasing supply to agriculture Decreasing water table 2004 Need to produce 105 m tons (2003 short fall) 15 m tons (to feed 74 m people who was added in 2004) • 3 of the 4 warmest years on record came during the last 4 years • 2004 projected to be the 5th consecutive year in which the harvest falls short of consumption

15. Impact: water quality Urban centers contribute more than 25% of the sewage in India • 63% of population in Asia without access to clean water • Infant mortality rates are 10 to 20 times higher in cities without adequate water and sanitation

16. Import of Petroleum: burden on national budget Total Asian Oil Consumption by 2010 (Barrel / Day)1 Need to be imported from outside the region [18 – 24 million b/d] India spends over $3.5 billion on crude petroleum import annually2. Gasoline consumption trends in Shanghai, China3 Source: 1. Harvard International Review (2003); 2. ESCAP Statistical Year Book 2002; 3. M.P. Walsh, US AEP 2000

17. Global Primary Energy Use Source: 1. Volt Viewtech (www.energyloans.org)

18. Emissions from residential areas 4,535 Kg of CO2 / year 9,979 Kg of CO2 /year • Average home emit more than twice as much carbon dioxide as the average car1 Source: 1. Volt Viewtech (www.energyloans.org)

19. Prevention: Turning the environmental degradation curve Business as usual scenario Environmental degradation Prevention measures such as renewable energy sources Economic development

20. Prevention Vs Mitigation/rehabilitation Rehabilitation Costs of implementation Mitigation Prevention Costs of damage Prevention Mitigation Rehabilitation 99% efforts Today Tomorrow 99% efforts Today & Tomorrow

21. Hybrids Price: $20,810 MSRP Fuel efficiency: 23 Km / litre Saving: $5,000 over 15 years Reduces CO2 by 50% CO, HC and NOx by 90% below Japanese standards. Toyota Prius Hybrid

22. SOLVE SOCIAL, ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES SOCIAL BENEFITS • create domestic jobs • electricity to remote areas which are not in the national power grid Hydrogen Energy ECONOMIC BENEFITS ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS • eliminate our dependence on foreign oil • solve our balance of payments woes • export opportunities • solve our air pollution problems • eliminate oil spills • reduce noise pollution water H2O

23. 83,000MW Less than 1.2% of economic potential 42,000MW Hydropower potential in Nepal WATER RESOURCES IN NEPAL Nepal is reach in water resources and among the world’s top 5 countries in hydropower potential. H2O

24. Prevention Technical measures Mobility Legal & financial Technical measures Housing Legal & financial

25. Knowledge building and education  Networking Demonstration Projects Regional Expert Consultation First Expert group meeting; 13 September 2005 3 groups were formed, and each of them are bringing out a white paper on it.

26. General Objective: • promote eco-friendly buildings in the Asia Pacific region. • Specific Objectives: • demonstrate the suitability and technological feasibility. • create awareness about the sustainability of eco-friendly buildings, leading to their wider acceptance and use. Demonstration Project: Objectives

27. Regional expert group • Develop generic designs for the different climatic zone and economic groups • Assist in constituting a National Task Force (NTF) • Design tailored to each of the selected countries • Enhance the capacity of national technical committee • Assist in the construction in selected countries • Facilitate wider dissemination of the demonstrated concept • Promotion in other countries of the region Demonstration Project: Scope

28. Regional National Steering Committee National Focal Points Regional Expert group National Implementing Agencies National Task Force Demonstration Project: Implementation Arrangement Guidance Technical input Actual construction • The project will be implemented in full ownership of governments, and in collaboration with the private sector and expert institutions. • Development of win-win partnership (public-private partnerships) • eg: manufacturers of solar panel. • Governments will provide land, and other facility to enable the demonstration.

29. Maldives Sri Lanka Indonesia National WS National WS National WS Site Selection Site Selection Site Selection Regional Training Regional Training Programme Site Specific Design Site Specific Design Site Specific Design