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Reviewing the Fifth Power Plan Energy Price Assumptions

This report evaluates the energy price assumptions in the Fifth Power Plan, focusing on natural gas prices. It analyzes historical trends, price differentials, forecasts, and compares them to actual prices. The report also examines other factors such as oil and coal prices and their impact on the plan.

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Reviewing the Fifth Power Plan Energy Price Assumptions

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  1. Reviewing the Fifth Power Plan Energy Price Assumptions Natural Gas Advisory Committee December 5, 2006

  2. Fuel Price Historical Perspective

  3. Natural Gas Prices: 2004 Through September 2006 Hurricanes Katrina and Rita 2004 2005 2006

  4. Low to High Natural Gas Price Range Vs. Actual $8.11 High $6.73 $5.97 Low

  5. Differentials From Henry Hub To Northwest Hubs

  6. Forecast Vs. Actual Stanfield Prices

  7. Futures Prices Compared to Council Forecast Range

  8. Short-Term Forecast Compared to Council Range

  9. Storage is Highest in Years

  10. More Recent Long-Term Natural Gas Price Forecasts

  11. Example risk treatment – natural gas prices

  12. 2005 World Oil Prices Exceeded the 5th Plan Range

  13. Council Oil Price Range Compared to AEO 2006

  14. Western Mine Mouth Coal Prices

  15. Weekly Spot Coal Prices

  16. Delivered Utility Coal Price:2003 Forecast vs. Actual

  17. Monthly Electricity Pricesin 2005 and 2006 Average 5th Plan = $52.35 Average Actual = $52.89 2005 2006

  18. Conclusions • Oil prices are higher than plan range, but have little direct effect on Power Plan • Natural gas prices are not clearly inconsistent with the Plan forecast, and the volatility we modeled is consistent with recent experience • A moderate change in the fuel or electric price forecasts would not affect the 5-year actions called for by the Power Plan

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