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System Analysis Advisory Committee Assumptions for the Seventh Power Plan

System Analysis Advisory Committee Assumptions for the Seventh Power Plan. Michael Schilmoeller Friday, January 25, 2013. Uncertainty and Risk. The Fifth Power Plan Appendix P contains a section comparing alternative risk metrics and the efficient frontiers they produce

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System Analysis Advisory Committee Assumptions for the Seventh Power Plan

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  1. System AnalysisAdvisory Committee Assumptions for theSeventh Power Plan Michael Schilmoeller Friday, January 25, 2013

  2. Uncertainty and Risk • The Fifth Power Plan Appendix P contains a section comparing alternative risk metrics and the efficient frontiers they produce • The SAAC has discussed the merits of adding a unit-service cost criterion • Are there other risk metrics we should consider? What are utilities and agencies using and why? 2

  3. Generation Availability • Should the Council include other kinds of behaviors that curtail power plant production? • The model already has a carbon penalty and the capability to model some cap and trade • Should some units retire spontaneously or after prolonged forced outages? • Ratepayer backlash against RPS statutes 3

  4. The Regional Footprint • The Council currently restricts consideration of power generation to plants committed to the region • Twenty-five percent of PacifiCorp’s operating costs for plants outside the region falls on the regional ratepayer • Is it time to expand the footprint? 4

  5. Conservation • How do we think about the durability of conservation and uncertainty around durability? • Should we consider uncertainty around the shape of conservation? 5

  6. Behaviors • How much demand elasticity should be model reflect? • Are there other behaviors we may want to capture? 6

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