1 / 11

The Future of Resources: Will We Run Out?

Explore the sustainability of our current resource usage and the potential solutions to avoid resource depletion. Topics include energy, minerals, living space, water, fiber, and food. Learn about the ecological footprint and the need for changes to our current system.

frankwatson
Download Presentation

The Future of Resources: Will We Run Out?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Will We Run Out of Resources? David Denkenberger Ph.D. Candidate, Building Systems Program Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engr, CU Please take a note sheet and evaluation form

  2. Introduction • Economic includes time, aesthetics, taste etc. • Conservation sacrifices these intangibles “freezing in the dark” • Energy efficiency doesn’t sacrifice intangibles “win, win, win:” environment, money, and intangibles • Environment is that which primarily affects people, e.g. air and water pollution • Nature is biodiversity and habitat protection • Europe destroyed almost all its nature, but is doing well environmentally (far lower air and water pollution than 100 years ago)1 • Million: mn; billion: bn; trillion: tn

  3. Sustainability • Many people say that the earth simply cannot support 10 billion people at the US standard of living • Won’t work with our current system, but will be forced to change eventually anyway • Ecological footprint is the amount of land that is required to sustainably provide for our energy, minerals, living space, food, fiber, and water (~2.2 acres of usable land per person is our quota)1

  4. Energy • US per person primary energy use is ~10 kW1 • If start with renewable electricity, need less primary energy, 4-8 kW, so say 6 kW • So 10 bn people require 60 tn watts (TW) • Current wind technology could provide 72 TW2 • Solar max on land ~6,000 TW, but practical ~600 TW3 • If 10% efficient and 200 W/sq m,3 ~0.1 acre/person: 5% of ecological footprint quota, but could be in desert or on rooftops • Intermittency: vehicle batteries, building thermal, compressed air, or hydrogen (H2)

  5. Minerals • The mineral we spend the most on is… • Cement (limestone)1 • Non-energy resources cost 1% of GDP1 • Most money is spent on abundant, e.g. iron and aluminum ~10x in general rock as copper ore2 • Copper is not abundant, but worst case scenario is 0.5% GDP loss if we have to mine general rock because recycle and substitute1 (or even mine our landfills, like we are doing in some places3) • May have to start recycling phosphorus (fertilizer) this century4 (general rock P concentration 10x copper)

  6. Minerals for Energy • Wind turbines, heat pumps, and electric resistance: conventional materials • Nuclear: uranium from ocean1 • Thin film solar cells: amorphous silicon (not cadmium or indium) • Batteries: lithium tough2, but nickel, lead, zinc and iron3 • H2 electrolysis can be graphite or nickel4 • Fuel cells: platinum: looking for substitutes; but can just burn H2 • Combining H2 with CO2 from air to make gasoline substitute: done industrially, cheap catalysts5

  7. Living Space • Typical half acre suburban plot with 3 people is 0.17 acres/person, or ~8% of ecological footprint quota • Buildings ~0.5% of footprint (residential 1000 sq ft times 1.5 to include commercial) • Parking ~0.6% of footprint1 • Landfills ~0.0001% of footprint!2 • Mining ~1% of footprint (based on Natural Capitalism material moved and assumed mine depth and coal reference)

  8. Water • If water is withdrawn and not consumed (evaporated), it is available downstream (and water pollution levels are falling) • Agriculture is 70% of withdrawals, but 93% of consumption1 • Including rain-fed, agriculture and silviculture (wood) are 99% of consumption1 • I get lawns ~5% of US consumption, but non-plants (non-land) ~0.5% (industry, drinking, showers) • Irrigation has reduced our direct ecological footprint ~10%1 and only 1/10 of irrigation is unsustainable,2 so we will only lose 1% • Humans consume about ¼ of evapotranspiration1

  9. Fiber • By mass of wood, not value (for plantations): • Lumber ~5% of footprint quota1 • Paper and cardboard ~5% of footprint1 • Burning (industrial and personal) ~10% of footprint1 • Cotton is ~1% of footprint2

  10. Food/ Totals • ~70% of footprint with US productivity1 (if European productivity (similar to US in 1960, but now double US), only ~35%2); land loss, but CO2 up • Total footprint of American is ~70% of quota, which is sustainable, but more natural forests would be converted to plantations and farming • If problem and needed >100%, price would increase: not build out of or burn wood, use farm residues for paper, waste less food, and eat less meat; all happening in drier countries: cut footprint in half (or future tech like algae flue) • The problem is saving nature, not people

  11. Orders of magnitude of eco footprint quota • 300% food biomass all energy • 100% cellulosic biomass all energy, 10 ac lot (telecommuting), food + fiber if organic and 350 ppm • 30% food, fiber • 10% living space • 3% solar for all energy • 1% mining, roads • 0.3% wind for all energy, buildings, parking • 0.1% nuclear for all energy • … • 0.0001% landfills

More Related