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Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting October 4, 2011

Discussion on policy decisions, progress review, model enhancement, proposed revisions, state of the system report, and next steps.

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Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting October 4, 2011

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  1. Resource Adequacy Steering Committee Meeting October 4, 2011

  2. Today’s Discussion Background/Context Summary of policy decisions Review and discuss progress since last meeting Key assumptions Model enhancement Review and discuss Technical Committee’s proposal for revising the standard Current Standard and proposed revisions State of the System Report and sample Possible motion to send proposal to the Council Next steps; review and finalize proposed schedule

  3. Background/Context – Current Standard Events leading up to the first official assessment: 2004 – Council’s 5th Power Plan called for the creation of the Resource Adequacy Forum 2005 – Forum meets for the first time 2008 – Council adopts Forum’s proposal for a resource adequacy standard: Probabilistic methodology Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) metric Threshold set at 5% Separate winter and summer LOLP assessments which were then translated into deterministic metrics 2008 – First official assessment – supply is adequate through 2013 2008-2010 – Forum works to benchmarks its approach to adequacy and continues to refine methodology, data and assumptions

  4. Background/Context – Current Standard Where did we leave last discussion (RA Steering Committee Meeting 11/4/10)? Technical Committee presented results through 2015 but recommended postponing the release of these results because of the following outstanding issues: Use of borrowed hydro Curtailment event threshold Temperature-correlated wind generation data Since this meeting, these issues have been resolved and further progress has been made in the data, assumptions and modeling, resulting in a proposed update to the standard.

  5. Proposed Schedule Oct 4th – steering committee meeting (discuss and possibly approve proposed revisions) Oct 11-12 – present proposed revisions to Council, ask Council to release draft Forum paper for public comment Nov – Council meeting, time for public comment, summary of comments to date Dec – Council vote to adopt revision, could slip to January May – adequacy assessment for 2012 (for years 2015 and2017)

  6. Policy Decisions Keep the current probabilistic methodology, which includes the use of non-firm resources, to assess power supply adequacy. Keep the LOLP as the adequacy metric and keep 5% as its maximum threshold. Remove the seasonal LOLP assessments and instead calculate only one LOLP value for the entire year. Change the assumptions regarding the thresholds used to screen shortfalls. The new thresholds should only count those non-modeled resources and load management actions that are contractually available. Remove the translation of the LOLP measure into deterministic values such as load/resource balance and winter and summer sustained-peak planning margins.

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