Energy Futures Hard Choices Ahead

1. Probus: Park Farm, Hethersett 19th October 2005 Energy Futures Hard Choices Ahead • Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE • Energy Science Director: Low Carbon InnovationCentre • School of Environmental Sciences CRed

2. Future Global Warming Rates

3. Change in precipitation 1961-2001 Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Total summer precipitation Total winter precipitation

4. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 actual Is Global Warming man made? predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 • Predictions include: • Greenhouse Gas emissions • Sulphates and ozone • Solar and volcanic activity Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

5. 2003 1979 Climate ChangeArctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • Nasa satellite imagery • 20% reduction in 24 years Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

6. Difficult Choices Ahead Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods - figures taken from Energy Review 2002 2003 2004 2005

7. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

8. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol?

9. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

10. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh

11. It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

12. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

13. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendantSecurity issues that raises.

14. Our Choices: They are difficult A diverse renewable supply will be local, and will be less prone to cascade power cuts such as those recently in US, London, Italy, Denmark. Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW enough to supply over 1 million homes. These do fail from time to time, and require much greater backup than required for the failure of a few wind turbines. A reactor trip at Sizewell B has an even larger effect ~1188 MW. Renewable generation is less prone to major interruption Local Small Scale generation saves 8.5% from losses in transmission An important advantage over conventional generation or far Offshore Wind We must not get drawn into a single issue debate – a rational debate covering all the alternatives is needed. Available Renewables: Nuclear: Conservation

15. Our Choices: They are difficult • BETTA has to cope with the loss of Sizewell B through a reactor trip. This loss amounts to around 1.5 times the total installed capacity of wind at present. • BETTA also has to cope with sudden changes in demand (up to 2.5 times Sizewell B) in a matter of minutes e.g. from TV scheduling. • Experience from Denmark shows that the normal maximum change in any one hour from Wind Output is no more than 18% on one occasion in a year. With a larger country area the figures for diverse wind generation will be less in UK. Renewable Energy: The Issues Isn’t Energy from Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply • One will not save Carbon Dioxide because power stations are running in case they are needed. • There is very little truth in this. The amount of carbon dioxide emitted is dependant on the output of a fossil fuel power station. If it is running under low load it will emit only a very small amount of extra CO2. • Allowing for this, the effect of standby reserve will amount to a maximum of 15 – 20 gms per kWh of Wind Energy compared to 430 for gas or 1000 for coal. • A substantial saving is made.

16. Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static

17. Electricity Options for the Future The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes 10.4% renewables by 2010 20% renewables by 2020 • High Growth – Business as Usual • Low Growth capped at 420 TWH by 2010 • Rise in emissions 2005 – 2010 • loss of nuclear generating capacity • Fall in 2010 – 2020 • loss of nuclear and coal capacity • Little new generating capacity available before 2010 except Wind

18. Electricity Options for the Future • Low Growth Scenario • Capped at 420 TWh • 33% CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 • 62% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 • 68 % increase in gas consumption • ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 • Mix option: 6 new nuclear plant by 2025 • Mix option: 11% increase in gas • consumption (cf 2002) • High Growth Scenario • Business as Usual • 0.3 % CO2 reduction (Gas) cf 1990 • 54% CO2 reduction (Nuclear) cf 1990 • 257% increase in gas consumption • ( Gas Scenario) cf 2002 • 25% Renewables by 2025 • 20000 MW Wind • 16000 MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc.

19. Our Choices: They are difficult • Affect House Prices • Evidence from Estate Agents in the Swaffham Area say they have a positive effect on house prices. Whilst the wind turbine is considered 'ugly' by some residents of Swaffham, most consider it a unique landmark and see it as an asset to the town. Most of the local population are proud of the turbine and it seems to have had a positive impact on the town in a number of ways. I do believe that were it not for the number of visitors to Swaffham, coming to see the turbine for whatever reason, we would not have such a high influx of buyers from out of the area.This has increased house prices, and the prosperity of the area.

20. Our Choices: They are difficult • Latest some evidence to suggest that a few birds are killed typically 3 per installed MW per year except in a few locations. • the oldest wind farm in UK on Burgar Hill has an RSPB reserve right next to it. • in Orkney a party from UEA came across new fewer than 3 dead birds on roads in 2 days in area around turbines. • Currently UK has around 850 MW installed perhaps 2500 killed a year • Estimates of 1 million killed each year by vehicles • British Trust for Ornithology estimate 100 million birds collide with fixed objects of whom one third are killed Wind Energy: The Issues Wind Turbines kill birds

21. Our Choices: They are difficult Wind Turbines are Incredibly Inefficient • Efficiency: • the ratio of the USEFUL work to the total energy available (or expended) • Oxford English Dictionary Modern Wind Turbines convert 40 – 42%% of available energy in the wind Modern Coal Fired Power Stations achieve 38% Sizewell B achieves 32% A car engine achieve 30% at best Compared to many other energy devices, Wind Turbines are Very Efficient

22. Our Choices: They are difficult • Wind Turbines are beautiful! • Wind Turbines are Ugly! • What is the consequence of not using wind alongside conservation, biomass etc?. • Insecure supply of Electricity when we import fossil fuels from Russia • The North Norfolk Coal Field • Increased Famine • 20 new nuclear power stations in the UK by 2025 • Increased incidence of extreme weather events.

23. Government Response • Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 • Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s • (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more localgeneration, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generatedwaste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

24. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. Around 4 million in Norfolk "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) One Party sized balloon is approximately equivalent to 10 gms of CO2 CRed

25. Some facts: • A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging • up to 20 kg CO2 a year • Standby on television > 60 kg per year • Filling up with petrol (~£37 for a full tank ~ 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon) • How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? • 1.6 miles

26. Involve the local Community • Many residents on island of Burray (Orkney) compaigned for a wind turbine. • On average they are fully self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity

27. Electricity Statistics: City of Norwich • Each house in Norwich consumes, 3727 kWh per year. • Broadland 5057 kWh Breckland 5612 kWh • North Norfolk 5668 kWh South Norfolk 5797 kWh • Kings Lynn and West Norfolk 5908 kWh • Great Yarmouth 5144 kWh • A wind farm the size of Scroby Sands would supply 66% of domestic needs for whole of Norwich (or 22% of total demand) • Would save ~ 70 000 to 75 000 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year or 40 000 hot air balloons each year. • The alternative: • Persuade 30 000 motorists never to drive the car again • Or300 000 motorists to drive 1000 miles less each year.

28. Conclusions • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important. Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Security more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of energy It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • Wind (and possibly biomass) are the only real alternatives for renewable generation in next 5 – 10 years. • Otherwise Nuclear??? – but Uranium resources are limited • We need to have a multi-pronged approach – we need all available renewables, much more conservation, and possibly some nuclear. • Even if we are not convinced about Global Warming – Energy Security issues will shortly start to affect us.

29. WEBSITE Cred-uk.org/ This presentation will be available from tomorrow at: www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm Conclusions • Need to act now otherwise we might have to make choice of whether we drive 1.6 miles or heat an old person’s room Are you up to the Challenge?: Will you make a pledge? "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher